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The 2026/27 U.S. rice outlook points to larger supplies and higher ending stocks, while demand and prices remain unchanged. Beginning stocks increased 4.6 million cwt to 58.4 million, partly offset by a 0.2-million-cwt reduction in production to 158.2 million. The average yield rose 46 pounds per acre to 7,690 pounds. Ending stocks are projected at 40.4 million cwt, up 4.4 million but 31% below last year, while the season-average farm price remains $14.90 per cwt. Globally, supplies increased 1.2 million tonnes, consumption fell 3.2 million tonnes, trade declined, and ending stocks rose 4.4 million tonnes to 197.0 million.

Key Highlights

• U.S. rice beginning stocks increased 4.6 million cwt to 58.4 million.
• All rice production forecast declined 0.2 million cwt to 158.2 million.
• U.S. rice ending stocks rose 4.4 million cwt to 40.4 million.
• Global rice consumption declined 3.2 million tonnes to 539.6 million.
• World rice ending stocks increased 4.4 million tonnes to 197.0 million.

U.S. rice fundamentals turned slightly more supply-heavy for 2026/27, with larger beginning stocks lifting total supplies despite a small reduction in production. Beginning stocks were raised 4.6 million cwt to 58.4 million following the NASS Rice Stocks report. The all-rice production forecast was lowered 0.2 million cwt to 158.2 million, reflecting lower harvested area despite a modestly higher yield estimate.

Production changes varied by rice type. Long-grain rice production was reduced by 3.2 million cwt to 103.5 million, while medium- and short-grain production increased to 54.6 million. The average all-rice yield was raised 46 pounds per acre to 7,690 pounds. With domestic and residual use unchanged at 148.0 million cwt, higher supplies translated into a 4.4-million-cwt increase in projected ending stocks to 40.4 million. However, stocks remain 31% below the previous year. The season-average farm price was unchanged at $14.90 per cwt.

The global rice outlook also points toward greater availability and weaker demand. Global supplies were raised 1.2 million tonnes to 736.6 million, primarily because higher beginning stocks in India more than offset lower production. India’s rice production is expected to decline year over year for the first time in ten years, following below-normal rainfall and uneven monsoon coverage.

Global consumption was reduced by 3.2 million tonnes to 539.6 million, largely due to changes in India. World trade was also lowered slightly to 62.6 million tonnes, mainly because of reduced Cambodian exports. Meanwhile, global ending stocks increased 4.4 million tonnes to 197.0 million, with India accounting for 28% of the global total.

Higher U.S. and global rice stocks could limit price gains, while India’s weaker production and monsoon conditions provide a counterbalancing fundamental support.

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