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Gold

Gold yesterday settled lower by -1.13% at 112,555 as profit booking emerged after US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious tone on interest rate cuts. Despite recent gains supported by safe-haven demand, the yellow metal faced pressure as Powell highlighted the Fed’s challenge of balancing persistent inflation with a weakening job market. While some Fed officials like Stephen Miran advocated aggressive easing, others stressed caution, keeping policy expectations divided. Markets are now pricing in two 25 bps cuts, one each in October and December, with high probabilities of 90% and 73% respectively, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Geopolitical tensions, particularly NATO’s warning against Russia’s violation of Estonian airspace, along with strong ETF inflows hitting a three-year high, lent support to gold. On the physical side, India’s gold premiums surged to a 10-month high of $7/oz as festive demand picked up despite record prices, while China’s discounts widened to a five-year peak amid weaker investor demand. Globally, Swiss gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tons, while shipments to India also increased, partly offsetting a sharp slump in deliveries to the US. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping sharply by -26.16% to 6,536 contracts alongside the price fall of 1,281. Gold now finds support at 112,090, with a further break possibly testing 111,630, while resistance is seen at 113,425, and a move above this could take prices towards 114,300.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 111630-114300.

* Gold dropped on profit booking after Fed Powell's cautious tone on rate cuts.

* New Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for aggressive rate cuts, adding that the Fed was misreading how tight it has set monetary policy.

* Robust demand for exchange-traded funds further supported bullion, with inflows reaching a three-year high last week.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled lower by -0.78% at 1,34,002 as profit booking emerged amid the Fed’s cautious stance and a stronger US dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a data-dependent approach, warning that overly aggressive rate cuts could leave the inflation battle incomplete. While some Fed officials leaned toward faster easing if the labor market weakens, others advocated patience, leaving policy expectations mixed. On the fundamentals front, silver remains well-supported by tight supply and robust industrial consumption from the solar, EV, and electronics sectors. Investment appetite is also strong, with silver ETPs recording net inflows of 95 Moz in the first half of 2025, already surpassing last year’s total. Global ETP holdings now stand at 1.13 Boz, only 7% below the 2021 peak, with valuations hitting record highs above $40 billion. Retail investment trends, however, vary regionally—Europe shows moderate recovery, while India posted a 7% year-on-year gain, driven by bullish price outlooks. Meanwhile, the Silver Institute projects a narrowing global deficit to 117.6 Moz in 2025, reflecting slightly lower demand and higher supply. Industrial demand is expected to hold near record levels, while jewellery and silverware demand may soften. Investment in coins and bars is forecast to rise 7% this year after sharp declines in 2024, especially in Western markets. Technically, silver is under long liquidation with open interest down -2.62% to 16,930. Support lies at 1,33,390, below which prices may test 1,32,770, while resistance is at 1,35,015, with further upside potential towards 1,36,020.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 132770-136020.

* Silver dropped on profit booking amid Fed’s cautious stance and a firmer US Dollar.

* However, geopolitical tension and rate-cut expectations cushion downside.

* Chair Powell noted that the Fed must balance persistent inflation with a weakening job market, describing it as “a challenging situation”.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday gained sharply by 2.56% to settle at 5,776, supported by tightening global supplies amid multiple disruptions in key producing regions. Prices extended strength after Ukraine’s military confirmed strikes on two oil pumping stations in Russia’s Volgograd region, while a state of emergency in Novorossiisk—a major Russian oil and grain export hub—added further concerns over supply stability. Additionally, the stalled resumption of Kurdish oil exports and Chevron’s restricted Venezuelan shipments due to U.S. permit issues boosted market bullishness. On the geopolitical front, Iran confirmed that oil sales to China would continue despite ongoing Western pressure, reducing fears of additional sanctions. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected global oil supply growth for 2025, warning of potential surpluses by 2026. However, near-term data from the U.S. supported prices, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a draw of 607,000 barrels in crude inventories, against expectations for a build. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.1 million barrels and distillates dropped by 1.7 million barrels, reflecting robust demand, while refinery runs edged higher despite a slight fall in utilization. Adding to sentiment, OPEC maintained its strong oil demand growth outlook for 2025 and 2026, highlighting resilient global economic performance. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 2.48% to 11,219 contracts. Support is placed at 5,675, below which prices may test 5,575, while resistance is seen at 5,829, with potential upside towards 5,883.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5575-5883.

* Crude oil rose amid tightening supplies amid export issues in Kurdistan and Venezuela and disruptions to Russian supplies.

* U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week - EIA.

* API data shows U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell last week

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled slightly lower by -0.43% at 278.4 as traders digested a larger-than-expected storage build, which signaled ample supply in the market. The U.S. Energy Department reported a weekly injection of 90 billion cubic feet (bcf), well above market forecasts of 81 bcf, and also higher than both the 56 bcf build during the same week last year and the five-year average build of 74 bcf. With this addition, storage levels stand just 0.1% below the prior year but remain 6.3% above the five-year average, reflecting comfortable supply conditions. However, the downside remained capped as weather forecasts point to warmer-than-normal conditions through early October, likely boosting cooling demand. LSEG projected U.S. gas demand, including exports, to rise from 101.1 bcfd last week to 104.2 bcfd this week. At the same time, average gas output in the Lower 48 states dipped to 107.3 bcfd so far in September, down from August’s record 108.3 bcfd. Hurricane Gabrielle’s intensification into a Category 3 storm also added some uncertainty over potential production and supply disruptions. The EIA’s latest outlook projected record-high U.S. natural gas production of 106.6 bcfd and consumption of 91.5 bcfd in 2025, before both ease slightly in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure with open interest gaining 8.91% to 27,182 contracts while prices slipped by 1.2. Support lies at 274.7, below which prices may test 271.1, while resistance is seen at 282.9, with a breakout likely taking prices towards 287.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 271.1-287.5.

* Natural gas dropped due to ample amounts of gas in storage after a larger-than-expected injection.

* However downside seen limited amid forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and firmer demand in the coming days.

* Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least October 4.

Copper

Copper yesterday surged by 2.98% to settle at 945.75, supported by supply concerns after Freeport-McMoran declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The miner warned that 2026 output could be 35% lower than earlier projections following a landslide that disrupted operations. On the inventory front, U.S. Comex copper stocks have surged to 318,285 short tons, up 241% this year, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 12.5% to their highest since June at 105,814 tons. LME stocks have also increased 56% over the past three months, reflecting ample short-term availability despite broader supply risks. China’s copper demand remains a key driver, with consumers restocking ahead of the Golden Week holiday. Citi projects refined copper consumption to rise 2.9% in 2026 to 27.5 million tons, swinging the global balance into a 308,000-ton deficit compared to this year’s surplus. China’s production fell 5% in early September, removing about 500,000 tons from the market, partly offsetting higher output from Chile, where Codelco and BHP’s Escondida posted year-on-year gains, though Collahuasi mine saw sharp declines. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper surplus of 57,000 tons in July versus a 14,000-ton deficit in June, while the year-to-date surplus narrowed to 101,000 tons from 401,000 tons a year ago. Technically, fresh buying was evident as open interest jumped 17.51% to 6,590 contracts alongside a 27.4 price gain. Support is at 921.8, with a fall below opening the path to 897.9, while resistance lies at 959.7, above which prices could test 973.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 897.9-973.7.

* Copper prices jumped after Freeport-McMoran Inc declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

* Freeport said 2026 production from its Indonesian unit could be 35% lower than estimates before a September 8 landslide

* The global refined copper market showed a 57,000 metric tons surplus in July

Zinc

Zinc yesterday gained 1.14% to settle at 285.05, supported by falling inventories and supply concerns. Data showed LME zinc stocks dropped to 48,825 tons, the lowest since May 23, after slumping nearly 80% this year. Reflecting tight supply, the cash LME zinc premium over the three-month contract surged to $51 a ton, its highest since October last year. However, some pressure emerged from the supply side as China’s zinc production in August reached its highest level since Q1 2024, though inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose modestly by 4.9% last week. Despite increased capacity from smelters earlier in the year, September output is projected to dip slightly by 16,400 tons to 609,800 tons. Market sentiment remains underpinned by risks of production cuts from Chinese miners and refiners, alongside disruptions from heavy rains in South China. On the global front, Peru’s Antamina mine expects zinc production to rise 67% this year to 450,000 tons. Meanwhile, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tons in June from 31,400 tons in May, though preliminary figures indicated a 47,000-ton surplus in H1 2025. China’s refined zinc production in July increased 3% MoM and 23% YoY, with year-to-date output up 4% YoY. Technically, fresh buying was evident as open interest surged 10.76% to 2,902 contracts alongside a price gain of 3.2. Support lies at 281.4, and a break below could drag prices to 277.8, while resistance is at 287.7, with a move above paving the way to 290.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 277.8-290.4.

* Zinc gained as LME zinc stocks fell their lowest since May 23 having slumped 80% this year.

* PBOC introducing measures to support the Chinese economy.

* Antamina mine to see 67% rise in zinc production this year

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday slipped by 0.62% to settle at 256.6, weighed by a firmer dollar and muted activity ahead of China’s week-long holiday. Demand weakness also capped upside, with North American aluminium consumption falling 4.4% YoY in H1 2025, partly due to lower exports under tariff pressure. However, losses remained limited as supply-side risks continued to underpin the market. China, the world’s top producer, faces a production cap of 45 million tons annually, restricting capacity growth. In April, output reached 44 million tons, close to its ceiling, while capacity stood at 45.69 million tons in June. Global developments also added to supply concerns, as Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses after a government-led transfer, potentially halting ore supplies critical to Emirates Global Aluminium. On the inventory front, primary aluminium stocks in the LME plunged nearly 100,000 tonnes in early September to 375,000, reflecting robust physical demand. According to IAI, global primary aluminium output in August rose 0.9% YoY to 6.277 million tonnes. China’s production also posted a 1.22% YoY rise in August, while SHFE-monitored stocks dropped 0.6% from the prior week.  China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and products rose to 542,000 tonnes in July, while imports climbed 12.9% YoY in August to 320,000 tonnes, with cumulative imports up 2.7% in the first eight months of 2025. Technically, fresh selling emerged as open interest jumped 25.62% to 3,285 contracts. Support lies at 254, below which prices could test 251.4, while resistance is at 258.9, with a break higher paving the way to 261.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.4-261.2.

* Aluminium dropped amid firmer dollar amid quiet trade ahead of a week-long holiday in China.

* China’s central bank chief pledged to use a range of monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity, and support the country’s economic recovery.

* The U.S. will soon cut European car tariffs to 15% from the current 27.5%, fulfilling its pledge under the broader U.S.-EU trade deal announced in July

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled with a modest gain of 0.25% at 12250 as weather developments and supply dynamics continued to influence market sentiment. Heavy rainfall in Nanded has reportedly damaged nearly 15% of the standing turmeric crop, lending support to prices. However, the upside remains capped due to higher acreage this season, encouraged by favorable sowing conditions and relatively lower profitability in alternative crops. IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal September rainfall in parts of South India has also raised concerns for crop prospects. On the supply front, turmeric stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, while the Duggirala market is witnessing steady fresh arrivals. New crop quality has been fetching premiums over older stock, driving firm demand. Around 50–55% of the new season’s crop has already been traded, with arrivals expected to continue into June, suggesting sustained activity in the near term. Preliminary estimates indicate acreage may increase by 15–20% in the 2024-25 season, with sowing area already reported at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. Meanwhile, exports provided some encouragement, rising 2.29% during Apr–July 2025 at 63,020 tonnes compared to the same period last year. July exports stood at 15,070 tonnes, higher than June by 9.31%, though marginally lower than last July.  Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 4.12% to 15,025 contracts while prices edged higher by 30. Turmeric now finds support at 12,200, with further downside risk towards 12,148, while resistance is placed at 12,316, above which prices may test 12,380.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12148-12380.

* Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* While upside capped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12908 Rupees gained by 0.39 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled flat at 19410, showing no change in prices, as weak domestic and export demand after the retail season kept overall sentiment subdued. Traders highlighted that the market continues to face pressure from comfortable supplies and limited export interest, with demand largely being met from existing stocks. Farmers still hold nearly 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh are likely to be traded by season-end, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Despite this, downside appears restricted as the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5% may provide some support to FMCG exports and domestic consumption. On the supply side, production this season is expected to be around 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat contributing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags.  Export data confirmed this sluggishness, with Apr–July 2025 exports falling 19.81% to 73,026 tonnes compared to the same period last year. July shipments dropped sharply by 20.83% year-on-year and 15.58% month-on-month. In the Unjha spot market, however, prices edged up 0.21% to 19,319.5. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped 0.25% to 3,597 contracts while prices remained unchanged. Jeera now finds support at 19,310, with a break below potentially testing 19,210, whereas resistance is seen at 19,510, above which levels of 19,610 may be targeted.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19210-19610.

* Jeera settled unchanged due to weak domestic and export demand.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19319.5 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.

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