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Gold

Gold prices rebounded sharply, settling up by 1.28% at 1,36,666, as investor focus shifted back to persistent geopolitical and policy-related risks that have driven bullion to its strongest annual performance in over four decades. Safe-haven demand was supported by renewed geopolitical tensions after Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Vladimir Putin’s residence, dampening hopes of a near-term peace agreement. Adding to uncertainty, US President Donald Trump’s remarks that the next Fed Chairman should keep rates low and never “disagree” with him have revived concerns over Federal Reserve independence. On the macro front, US economic data remained supportive but did little to cap gold’s appeal. Pending home sales rose 3.3% month-on-month in November, beating expectations, while weekly initial jobless claims fell to 214,000, underscoring labor market resilience. Still, financial markets are pricing a 16.1% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s January meeting, keeping rate expectations accommodative for bullion. Physical demand signals were mixed. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong surged 101.5% month-on-month in November to 16.16 tonnes. However, discounts widened sharply in India to as much as $61 per ounce amid elevated prices, while Chinese discounts narrowed significantly. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.84% at 16,153 alongside a 1,724 price gain. Support is seen at 1,35,580, below which prices may test 1,34,490. Resistance stands at 1,37,470, and a move above could push prices toward 1,38,270.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 134490-138270.

* Gold rose as the focus returned to persistent global risks.

* President Donald Trump said that he expects the next Fed Chairman to keep interest rates low and never “disagree” with him.

* The US Pending Home Sales rose 3.3% MoM in November after an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in October.*

Silver

Silver prices surged sharply, settling up by 11.84% at 2,51,012, as heightened geopolitical uncertainty and strong underlying fundamentals reignited aggressive buying interest. Markets remained focused on persistent tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict following reports of a suspected Ukrainian drone incident near President Putin’s residence, while peace negotiations continue with key issues unresolved. Additional geopolitical risk premium emerged after the United States signaled potential further strikes on Iran if its nuclear and missile programs advance, alongside an operation against a drug-related facility in Venezuela, keeping safe-haven and strategic metal demand elevated. Despite near-term volatility, silver remains on track for an exceptional annual gain of around 180%, marking one of its strongest yearly performances since 1979. Prices continue to be underpinned by robust industrial demand, lingering global supply constraints, sustained ETF inflows, central bank buying, and the backdrop of three US rate cuts, with markets increasingly pricing further monetary easing in 2026. However, speculative excess has prompted regulatory action, with CME Group raising margin requirements for March 2026 silver contracts to around $25,000, aimed at curbing volatility after repeated record highs. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.62% to 12,712 alongside a 26,583 price jump. Support is seen at 2,37,620, with further support at 2,24,230. Resistance stands at 2,57,880, and a sustained move higher could test 2,64,750.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 224230-264750.

* Silver rose with uncertainty persisting as tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict lingered.

* Silver has surged by 180% this year, driven by its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list, supply deficits and growing industrial and investor appetite.

* US signaled possible further strikes on Iran if nuclear and missile programs advance, and announced an operation against a drug-related facility in Venezuela.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged marginally lower, settling down by 0.1% at 5,235, as pressure from a modest build in US inventories offset geopolitical risk premiums. The downside, however, remained limited amid fading prospects of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and persistent geopolitical tensions across the Middle East and South America. Additional supply-side focus came from the North Sea, where output of the five crude grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark is set to rise to around 575,000 bpd in February from 565,000 bpd in January. US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories rose by 405,000 barrels to 424.8 million barrels for the week ended December 19, defying expectations of a sizeable draw. Stocks at Cushing increased by 707,000 barrels, while refinery runs fell and utilization slipped to 94.6%. Gasoline inventories jumped 2.86 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 202,000 barrels. On the outlook front, OPEC+ is expected to reaffirm its pause in production increases at its January 4 meeting, reflecting concerns over a global oversupply backdrop. The IEA marginally narrowed its projected 2026 surplus to 3.84 million bpd, citing stronger demand growth and slightly weaker supply expansion, partly due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.21% to 17,807 alongside a 5 price decline. Support is seen at 5,215, below which prices could test 5,195. Resistance stands at 5,266, and a move above may push prices toward 5,297.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5195-5297.

* Crude oil edged lower as U.S. data showed a modest build in crude oil inventories.

* Venezuela began shutting oil wells due to a partial US blockade that has constrained exports and caused domestic storage tanks to fill.

* Supply of the five North Sea crude oil grades underpinning the dated Brent benchmark will average about 575,000 bpd in February

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged slightly higher, settling up by 0.14% at 357.9, supported by supply disruptions and colder weather expectations. The market drew support after Norway’s giant Troll field temporarily reduced gas supplies due to external power supply issues, with capacity restrictions expected to last for a day, though the precise impact remains uncertain. At the same time, forecasts of colder weather across much of the US lifted heating degree days through the first half of January, prompting utilities to add near-term futures positions to secure gas for heating demand. Fundamental data also remained supportive. The US Energy Information Administration reported a withdrawal of 166 billion cubic feet from storage for the week ended December 19, broadly in line with expectations but larger than typical seasonal draws. Total gas in storage fell to 3,413 bcf, placing inventories 3.6% below year-ago levels and about 0.7% under the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both US natural gas output and consumption to reach record highs in 2025. Dry gas production is projected to rise to 107.7 bcfd in 2025 and 109.1 bcfd in 2026, while domestic demand is seen increasing to 91.8 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026, underscoring a structurally strong demand outlook. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 4.56% to 20,477 as prices gained marginally. Support is seen at 348.8, below which prices may test 339.6. Resistance is placed at 371.9, and a sustained move above could open the way toward 385.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 339.6-385.8.

* Natural gas gains as the giant Troll field in Norway reduced natural gas supplies due to issues with external power supply.

* Prices rose as forecasts of a colder winter supported the outlook for gas-intensive heating.

* Data from the EIA showed that natural gas stocks fell by 166 billion cubic feet.

Copper

Copper prices witnessed a sharp rally, settling up by 8.5% at 1337.35, driven primarily by escalating supply-side concerns and trade-related uncertainties. Supply disruptions have dominated the copper market this year, with mine accidents and outages reported across key producing regions including Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. A major trigger was the halt in operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which accounts for nearly 3% of global supply, following a fatal incident. Supply risks were further amplified by labor protests in Chile and Peru and renewed threats of US import tariffs on copper, prompting traders to rush shipments into US ports ahead of potential levies. On the demand side, copper remained well supported by its critical role in electrification, renewable energy, EVs, power grids, and rapidly expanding AI and data-center infrastructure. A strong US economic expansion in Q3, along with a weaker US dollar and expectations of further Fed rate cuts, added to speculative interest. Although the ICSG reported a refined copper surplus of 122,000 tons for the first ten months of 2025, apparent usage rose 5.5%, highlighting resilient demand. In China, imports declined due to higher prices, but expectations of a 10% smelter output cut in 2026 strengthened the medium-term supply outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 9.37% to 13,573 alongside a price jump of 104.75. Copper has immediate support at 1271.1, below which it may test 1204.8. Resistance is seen at 1373.6, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 1409.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1204.8-1409.8.

* Copper prices rallied powered by the prospect of more stress in the supply chain.

* Supply issues have dominated metals, with copper mines from Indonesia and Chile to the Democratic Republic of the Congo suffering accidents.

* Copper output has been pressured by halted operations in Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

Zinc

Zinc edged higher, settling up by 1.56% at 309, as thin year-end trade conditions amplified speculative buying interest, supported by a weaker US dollar and renewed concerns over tightening supply. Supply-side factors remained in focus after zinc mines in Central and Southwest China announced routine maintenance shutdowns, reducing effective production days and potentially cutting zinc concentrate output by around 700 mt in metal content. Month-on-month zinc concentrate production is expected to decline, while inventories in SHFE warehouses fell by 4.4% from the previous week, reinforcing near-term supply tightness. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed China’s zinc output rose sharply by 13.3% year-on-year in November to 654,000 metric tons, extending strong production growth despite marginally slower expansion than October. Demand-side concerns also weighed on sentiment as China’s property investment and floor-area sales deteriorated further, while factory output and retail sales growth slowed in November, reflecting persistent weakness in domestic demand. On the global front, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tons in October, while the first ten months of 2025 still showed a refined zinc surplus of 76,000 tons. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest slipping 0.45% to 5,271 alongside a price rise of 4.75. Zinc has immediate support at 305.6, with a break below opening downside toward 302.3. Resistance is seen at 310.9, and a move above this level could test 312.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 302.3-312.9.

* Zinc gains as thin year-end trade extended momentum for speculative buying on a weaker dollar and worries about tighter supply.

* Zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.

* China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices strengthened sharply, settling up by 2.86% at 298.5, tracking firm global cues as LME aluminium hovered near its highest levels in more than three years amid intensifying concerns over supply tightness. Sentiment was underpinned by China’s renewed policy stance prioritising the prevention of overcapacity in metal production to limit deflationary pressures on manufacturers. China is set to breach its 45-million-ton output cap this year, prompting smelters to restrain output growth in 2026 and divert more capped supply to the domestic market. As a result, aluminium exports declined 9.2% year-on-year in November. Supply risks were further amplified by persistent challenges to new Chinese smelter projects in Indonesia due to higher energy costs and regulatory hurdles, while high power costs, equipment failures, bauxite sourcing issues, and geopolitical risks disrupted operations in countries including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. On the inventory front, aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 metric tons by end-November, signalling tighter regional availability. In contrast, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 6.6% on the week to December 19, offering some near-term relief. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.27% to 4,505 alongside an 8.3 price gain. Aluminium finds support at 292.6, with a break below opening downside toward 286.5. Resistance is seen at 302.2, and a sustained move above could test 305.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 286.5-305.7.

* Aluminium rose as LME prices rose near the highest in over three years amid growing concerns of low supply.

* Aluminium production is under threat from higher energy costs and supply limits in China.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.6%.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher, settling up by 1.02% at 17,242, supported by below-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as international demand. Market sentiment remains firm as both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories, providing a strong base ahead of new crop arrivals. Crop prospects remain mixed, with yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka affected by excessive rains, while unseasonal rainfall during August–September caused waterlogging and disease across nearly 15% of the area in parts of Marathwada, leading to localized yield losses of 15–20%. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, around 4% higher year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried turmeric output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the net increase in availability. Maharashtra’s dried output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags, while other states together may produce around 40 lakh bags. Quality concerns persist in low-lying areas, though IPM adoption and export-grade production are improving. Exports during April–October 2025 rose 2.05% year-on-year, while imports declined sharply, reinforcing domestic tightness. Spot prices in Nizamabad closed at 15,997.4, up marginally. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.44% to 14,450 alongside a 174 price gain. Support is seen at 16,828, with further downside at 16,414. Resistance stands at 17,478, and a breakout could push prices toward 17,714.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16414-17714.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15997.4 Rupees gained by 0.28 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher, settling up by 0.79% at 22,385, as weather-related issues and delayed sowing continued to lend support to market sentiment. Sowing progress in Gujarat remains significantly behind last year, with area as on 29 December 2025 at 3.99 lakh hectares, down 14.2% year-on-year, as uneven rainfall has delayed field preparation. This has resulted in very low arrivals at Unjha, where good-quality cumin is commanding premium prices, although the spot market there closed marginally lower at 21,963.2. Fundamentally, upside remains capped by comfortable old-crop supplies and subdued export demand. Farmers are estimated to be holding nearly 20 lakh bags, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded, leaving a sizeable carry-forward stock. Export interest from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly but remains price-sensitive, while overall overseas demand continues to be weak despite supply disruptions in Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and lower output expectations in China. Jeera exports during April–October 2025 declined 13.21% year-on-year, reflecting muted global buying. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, driven by reduced sowing. Support has also come from the GST rate cut to 5%, which may aid FMCG demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.14% at 4,410 alongside a 175 price rise. Support is seen at 22,060, with further downside at 21,720. Resistance is placed at 22,610, and a breakout could test 22,820.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21720-22820.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* As on 29 December 2025, in Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,596 hectares down by 14.20% compared to last years 464,570 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21963.2 Rupees dropped by -0.28 percent.

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