Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 17th Mar 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion - Spot Gold slipped to a four-week low, though managed to hold above the key psychological level of $5,000 on Monday as weakness in the dollar offered some support. Gold had earlier faced pressure from a sharp rise in Treasury yields, but sentiment stabilized after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Iranian tankers are being allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar fell 0.64%, amid rebound in equities easing liquidity demand for dollar. Meanwhile, silver also touched a four-week low but recovered to close positive above $80, supported by strongerthan-expected U.S. and Chinese industrial production data, that boosted the outlook for industrial metals demand. Today, Gold edged higher to above $5,030 as investors assessed West Asia tensions while focus will be on US Weekly employment change and pending home sales as expectations grow that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its March meeting.
Crude Oil – WTI Crude oil prices slipped more than 5% to $92.9/bbl yesterday ahead of the US release of the first tranche of emergency crude reserves of 86 million barrels and the International Energy Agency signaled readiness for further stockpile deployment. This coupled with Iran’s conditional passage of some vessels through the strait of Hormuz eased immediate supply stress. As per data compiled by Bloomberg, number of Iranian ships crossing the waterway jumped to a wartime high on Monday. Today, crude oil rebounded above $96/bbl as Iran intensified drone attacks on regional energy infrastructure and Donald Trump threatened to expand strikes targeting Iran’s key export hub Kharg Island, raising supply disruption concerns.
Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures slipped below $3/mmBtu on Monday in line with softness in global energy prices though sharp downide was limited by shift to slightly colder weather projections through March 20.
Base metals – Base metals began the week on a mixed footing, with aluminium declining 1% while copper posted modest gains. The complex remains under pressure from macro headwinds, as a stronger dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields weigh on sentiment amid persistent inflation concerns. Escalating Middle East tensions, including U.S. strikes on Kharg Island, have pushed oil prices higher, reducing expectations of near-term monetary easing. Demand concerns from China continue to linger, with slower construction activity impacting consumption. On the supply side, aluminium found intermittent support from potential bauxite export quotas in Guinea and ongoing production disruptions in Bahrain and Qatalum, though gains remain capped by global growth uncertainty.
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