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Key Highlights

* China's crude oil imports fell to a two-year low of 9.97 million bpd in July.

* Iron ore imports rose 5% in July, but daily figures show marginal growth.

* Copper imports were steady in July, slightly above June but lower on a daily basis.

* Natural gas imports in July increased from June but showed a steady daily pattern.

* Coal imports in July reached a seven-month high, but daily figures remained stable.

China’s crude oil imports experienced a significant drop in July, falling to 9.97 million barrels per day (bpd), marking the lowest daily arrival since September 2022. This decline has contributed to a year-to-date decrease in imports, averaging 10.90 million bpd—down 2.9% from the 11.22 million bpd seen during the same period in 2023. The dip in crude oil imports contradicts optimistic demand growth projections from industry giants like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), both of which forecasted substantial increases in China’s crude consumption for 2024.

While crude oil imports have been disappointing, China’s imports of other major commodities, such as iron ore, coal, copper, and natural gas, have shown more resilience. Iron ore imports increased by 5% in July, reaching 102.81 million metric tons, up from 97.61 million in June. However, when adjusted for daily figures, the growth appears marginal, with July arrivals at 3.32 million tons per day, barely above June’s 3.25 million tons.

Copper imports followed a similar trend, with July arrivals at 438,000 tons, just above June’s 436,000 tons. However, on a daily basis, July’s figure of 14,130 tons was slightly lower than June’s 14,530 tons. Natural gas imports, including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline supplies, also saw an increase, with July arrivals at 10.86 million tons, translating to 350,300 tons per day, a slight rise from June’s 347,700 tons.

Coal imports stood out with a notable increase in July, reaching 46.21 million tons, the highest since December. However, daily import figures remained stable at 1.49 million tons, unchanged from June.

Conclusion

China's commodity imports remain mostly steady, with crude oil notably down. Market participants should monitor demand trends closely for the remainder of the year.

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