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Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices rose by 0.58%, closing at Rs.53,350, supported by a reduction in India’s 2024-25 cotton crop estimate by the Cotton Association of India (CAI) to 295.30 lakh bales, down 2% from the earlier projection of 301.75 lakh bales. This decline stems from lower-than-expected yields in central India, with notable reductions in Gujarat (4 lakh bales) and Maharashtra (3 lakh bales), though Odisha saw a minor increase of 0.55 lakh bales. The government’s second advance estimate similarly revised the crop forecast to 294.25 lakh bales - 1.5% lower than the previous figure. Despite higher imports projected to double to 32 lakh bales from 15.2 lakh bales last season, exports are forecasted to drop 40% to 17 lakh bales, reflecting weaker global demand. Domestic consumption remains steady at 315 lakh bales, with February-end consumption reaching 142 lakh bales. Ending stocks are predicted to shrink to 23.49 lakh bales - a notable drop from 30.19 lakh bales last season, signaling tighter supplies by September 2025. Globally, Brazil’s cotton production is projected to rise 1.6% to 3.76 million tons, driven by a 4.8% expansion in planting area. The U.S. balance sheet saw minor adjustments, with domestic mill use reduced by 100,000 bales and ending stocks increased by the same, setting an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 39%. Technically, the market showed short covering, with open interest falling -14.37% to 149 lots while prices rose by Rs.310. Support is seen at Rs.53,000, with a potential retest at Rs.52,650. Resistance lies at Rs.53,600, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.53,850.

BUY COTTONCANDY MAR @ 53000 SL 52700 TGT 53300-53500. MCX

COCUDAKL

SELL COCUDAKL APR @ 2750 SL 2790 TGT 2700-2660. NCDEX

KAPAS

BUY KAPAS APR @ 1445 SL 1435 TGT 1455-1465. NCDEX