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Nifty :24973

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmarks closed on a positive note for the sixth straight session ahead of US inflation print. Nifty closed at 24,973 up 0.42%. Market breadth was in favor of advances, with an A/D ratio of 1.5:1 where broader markets outperformed the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap closed on a positive note up 0.93% and 0.73% respectively. Sectorally, barring Auto and Consumer Durables all indices closed in green. Where, IT, PSU Bank and Realty outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty opened the session with a gap-up tracking positive global cues following the comment from US President Donald Trump on India’s Tariff negotiations. Despite profit booking at higher levels index managed to close in the vicinity of 25000 Psychological level. As a result, the daily price action formed a Doji candle carrying higher-highlow indicating, positive momentum to continue.

* Key point to highlight is that, series of higher-high-low helped index to reach in the vicinity of upper band of contracting range (25000-24400) and tracking the structure of index heavy weights and improvement in market breadth, as 46% of the stock are trading above 50 days EMA, all these development make us believe that positive momentum in the index to continue and should surpass the psychological level of 25000 that will open the next leg of up move towards 25400 which is 80% retracement of the decline from (25669-24337).

* Going forward, strong support is placed in the vicinity of 24400 being last two weeks identical low and lower band of the contracting range, which indicates a high probability of demand emergence at lower levels and continuation of the primary uptrend. Current consolidation phase presents opportunities to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong earnings, particularly those poised to benefit from next-generation GST reforms and upcoming festive season.

* Structurally, Auto Index witnessed a strong breakout from the weekly Inverse head & shoulder formation, supported by GST reforms. The breakout signals continuation of momentum with scope to retest its alltime high with a 10% upside potential in next couple of quarters.

* On the broader market front, both Nifty Midcap and small cap has been trading in the vicinity of 52-week EMA which has been held since April 2025 offering an incremental buying opportunity.

* Key monitorable:

* a) Development of Bilateral trade deal negotiations.

* b) US PPI / CPI MoM / Labour data.

* c) INDIA CPI

* d) U.S. Dollar index continues to trade below the past two years breakdown area of 100, indicating corrective bias while crude oil sustaining below 20-week EMA and closed the week on a negative note

Nifty Bank : 54536

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty extended its positive momentum and closed the session on a firm note and settled at 54,536 (+0.59%). Nifty PSU Bank index has relatively outperformed the benchmark, ending the day positive at 7023 (+2.%).

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty opened the day with a positive gap-up and traded within 300 points range throughout the session, as a result the daily price action formed a small bull candle with wick on both ends, indicating a range bound activity.

* Key point to highlight is that Bank Nifty has decisively closed above its consolidation band (53600-54500), while maintaining higher-high-low formation for three consecutive sessions, indicating positive momentum to continue. Going forward, follow through strength above this range will pave the way towards 55,400, which coincides with the 80% retracement of the recent decline (56156-53561) as well as the 50-day EMA. On the momentum front, Stochastic oscillator has witnessed bullish crossover from the oversold territory on the weekly time-frame, with reading of 19, indicating the possibility of a near-term reversal and revival in upward momentum. Hence, any decline from current level should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

* Structurally, since August 2022 there have been five instances where Bank nifty has consistently found support near the 52- week EMA post 10% of a correction and gradual recovery often begins. With the current 7% decline approaching toward the 52- week EMA (52900) and the weekly stochastic entering deeply oversold territory, thereby historical evidence suggests a highprobability inflection zone where downside risk is limited.

* PSU Bank Index has relatively outperformed the benchmark and closed on a positive note. Index has witnessed a strong bull candle, while reclaiming its position above the 50-day EMA, indicating inherent strength, however, immediate support is placed near the rising trendline, aligning with the 100-day EMA (6800). Furthermore, the index continues to trade well above its previous multiple swing low support which coincides with the 200-day EMA placed near 6700, signals a broader uptrend is still intact

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