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We hosted an expert call with a large multi-brand dealer (MSIL, TMCV, Honda-2Ws) across Mumbai/Pune, reinforcing a broad-based demand upcycle across segments, with simultaneous growth across CVs/PVs/2Ws sustained for several months, a breadth he has not witnessed in over a decade. KTAs:

1) CVs remain the strongest segment, with demand underpinned by a robust freight/business environment, as reflected in OEMs’ ability to implement consecutive price hikes without impacting demand.

2) In 2Ws, TVS continues to report waiting periods despite already posting record volumes, highlighting strong retail pull.

3) In PVs, MSIL’s 25-30% order-book growth supports confidence in +10% 2H growth despite a high base.

4) Ganpati is not a major festive period in Maharashtra, but bookings are up >50% yoy on a low Sep-25 base. With Navratri/Dussehra in Oct and Diwali in Nov, the staggered festive calendar should support broad-based demand momentum despite a high base. The current cycle appears structural, supported by stretched replacement cycles and easing GST pressures, with a broad-based demand upcycle across CVs/PVs/2Ws. Our top picks are TMCV (Healthy 1Q; demand sustenance in 2H a key monitorable) and AL (Mixed 1Q; MHCV demand robust; margins to improve from 2H) in CVs (India CVs: Reacceleration in motion); TVSL (Strong FY26; premiumization and EVs to drive longterm growth) and Ather (Konarc: a decisive move to catalyze EV adoption and leadership) in 2Ws (Yet another mega shift in motion; Ather the frontrunner), followed by HMIL (Entering a multi-year favorable product cycle; reiterate BUY) and M&M (Weak 1Q, as expected; margin pressure to sustain) in PVs. In ancillaries, we prefer Pricol (Strong 1Q; demerger paves way for inducting strategic partner), Sandhar (Guides for revenue to double in 3 years; valuations attractive), CAL (Robust 1Q; firing on all cylinders; reiterate BUY), and JK Tyre (Weak 1Q; demand, margins to progressively improve).

Structural CV upcycle; pricing power intact

CV demand appears structural, with growth in both volumes and value as fleets upgrade to higher-tonnage trucks (49T vs 40T). Broad-based growth is visible across sub-segments, with bus order books exceptionally strong and both TMCV and AL similarly stretched, including sizeable EV bus backlogs. Delivery capacity remains the key bottleneck, with tightness likely to persist for at least a year. Cargo/tipper demand saw a seasonal monsoon dip and is expected to rebound post-rains, in line with historical trends. Fleet owners also tend to stay loyal to a single OEM for ease of maintenance, creating a sticky, annuity-like revenue base. Importantly, CV purchases are driven by business opportunities and freight contracts rather than vehicle prices, supporting resilience to commodity inflation and interest rate movements. This is reflected in the smooth absorption of multiple price hikes. TMCV has taken 1% hike effective Oct-26, following 2.5/1.5% in Jul/Apr, while AL has taken cumulative 2.25/3.5% hikes in MHCVs/LCVs in FY27TD, underscoring pricing power alongside volume growth.

Strong retail pull; 2W runway intact

2W demand is broad-based and increasingly rural-led, with retail pull evident despite supply constraints. Honda is operating with unconstrained supply and zero discounts and has gained ~1% share from incumbents facing supply-led waiting periods. TVS continues to see strong demand and waiting periods amid supply constraints despite already posting record volumes. New launches have aided TVS in gaining share (~20.6% retail share in Aug-26 vs ~19.7%/18.8% in Aug-25/FY26). Honda is also turning aggressive, with 7 new launches and 3 refreshes in the pipeline. E-2W penetration stands at >10.5% in recent months vs 9.8% in Mar-26 and ~6.6% in FY26. Scooters remain the key swing factor, aided by a ~1:4 runningcost advantage over petrol. Overall, the mix is gradually shifting toward scooters and premium motorcycles, with E-2Ws having the potential to reach 50% of scooters (scooters account for ~31% of 2Ws) if supply constraints ease

PV momentum healthy: mass-market demand reviving; MSIL order book strong

PV momentum remains healthy, aided by GST-led price corrections reviving interest in small cars/entry models, primarily catered to by MSIL and TMPV, as consumers remain price-sensitive yet feature-conscious. The current cycle appears structural, with replacement cycles stretched to ~9Y during Covid (vs 7-8Y earlier), BS-VI cost absorption, and easing GST pressures supporting multi-year demand. MSIL is seeing strong traction for refreshed models such as the new Brezza, with ~1M waiting period. MSIL’s flexible production keeps overall waiting periods at just 2–3 weeks, with CNG supply the key bottleneck (capacity is being scaled up from ~60k to ~75k units). MSIL’s order book is growing 25–30%, supporting confidence in +10% 2H growth and steady monthly registrations of 200–250k units through Oct–Dec.

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