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The life insurance industry reported modest ~9% retail APE growth in Sep-26, with the private sector delivering ~7% growth, while LIC logged ~15% growth on a low base (Sep-25: -31.8% yoy). On a 2Y CAGR basis, the industry delivered muted ~1% retail APE growth, with the private sector growing 7.5%, whereas LIC declined 11.5% in Sep-26. YTDFY27, industry retail APE grew ~13%, with the private sector clocking ~12% growth, while LIC grew ~15%. Group APE for the industry grew a strong ~40% in Sep-26, led by a surge in OYRGTA business in the private sector. Consequently, private-sector Group APE grew a strong 105% in Sep-26, while LIC grew ~2%. As a result, industry APE grew ~18% yoy in Sep26, with the private sector growing ~23%, while LIC grew ~8%. Among private listed players, HDFC Life sustained its momentum with strong ~24% retail APE growth (2Y CAGR: ~14%), while Axis Max Life (+3.8% yoy) and SBI life (-2.3% yoy) posted weak performances. ICICI Life reported ~1.8% decline in reported retail APE in Sep-26, while Canara HSBC life reported ~10.4% growth. We expect the industry to log 11-12% retail APE growth in FY27E, backed by 13-14% growth in the private sector, while LIC’s retail APE is likely to grow 7-8%.

Industry retail APE grows ~9%; GTI surge lifts total APE ~18%

The life insurance industry reported ~9% retail APE growth in Sep-26, with the private sector growing ~7%, while LIC logged ~15% growth on a weak base (Sep-25: -31.8% yoy). On a 2Y CAGR basis, industry retail APE grew a muted ~1%, dragged by an ~11.5% decline at LIC, whose Sep-24 base was inflated by pre-buying ahead of the revised surrender value norms (effective Oct-24); the private sector clocked a ~7.5% 2Y CAGR. For 2QFY27, industry retail APE grew ~11%, with the private sector at ~10% and LIC at ~12%. YTDFY27, industry retail APE grew ~13%, led by ~15% growth for LIC, while the private sector grew ~12%; consequently, LIC’s RWRP market share improved ~60bps yoy to 29.2%. Group APE for the industry rose ~40% in Sep-26, as the private sector’s group APE more than doubled, while LIC’s grew ~2%. As a result, industry APE grew ~18%, with the private sector up ~23% and LIC up ~8%. YTDFY27, industry APE grew ~17% (private: ~19%; LIC: ~12%).

HDFC Life sustains momentum; SBI Life, Axis Max Life, and IPRU Life lag

Among private listed players, HDFC Life sustained the growth momentum that started in Aug-26, clocking ~24% retail APE growth in Sep-26, led by a recovery in the HDFC Bank channel. Axis Max Life reported muted ~4% retail APE growth. SBI Life’s retail APE declined ~2% in Sep-26, likely owing to the impact of the pre-announced strike at SBI branches during the last three days of the month (which was eventually called off). ICICI Life’s reported retail APE declined ~2%, while its RWRP grew ~1.5% in Sep-26. Canara HSBC Life clocked ~10% retail APE growth in Sep-26. On a 2Y CAGR basis, HDFC Life was the fastestgrowing player, clocking healthy ~14% growth, followed by Axis Max Life (2Y CAGR 8.3%) and SBI Life (2Y CAGR 6.2%). YTDFY27, Canara HSBC Life emerged as the fastest-growing private listed player at ~15%, followed by Axis Max Life and SBI Life at ~12% each, and HDFC Life at ~9%. ICICI Life’s reported retail APE grew ~10% during YTDFY27. Among other large private players, Tata AIA Life registered ~13% retail APE growth in Sep-26, while Bajaj Life saw a ~7% decline.

We expect industry’s retail APE to grow 11-12% in FY27

We expect the industry to report ~11-12% retail APE growth in FY27, supported by ~13- 14% growth in the private sector, while LIC is likely to deliver ~7-8% growth. Overall, with the sector clean-up (new surrender regulations and proposed commission reforms), we see the sector well-positioned for a gradual re-rating once it starts delivering growth. Notwithstanding the monthly volatility, we prefer HDFCLIFE and SBILIFE.

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