Diwali Muhurat Picks 2026 : Samvat 2083 by InCred Equities
RHI Magnesita India Ltd
Refractories Research Analyst – Kunal Mehta
BUY CMP 364 TP 492 Upside 35%
Intro
India’s refractory leader (>30% share) is pivoting from price-tendered bricks to multi-year 4PRO service contracts, running customers’ refractory operations end-to-end. FY25-26 was the trough, with ex-OI EBITDA margin down to 11.0% from 14.4% in FY24. As utilisation rises from 66% to 79% by FY28F, we expect 250 bps of margin expansion.
Investment rationale
Capex supercycle anchors volumes: steel capacity heads from 220 Mt to 300 Mt by 2030 and the cement capex pipeline is INR 1.2 lakh Cr; we build 7.5%/8% volume growth in FY27F/FY28F. 4PRO de-commoditisation: 4PRO is 33.1% of revenue, with wins at JSW Vijayanagar, Tata Steel Ludhiana and Arora Iron & Steel, plus a 60 kt p.a. cement pipeline. New INR 1,800 Cr ironmaking market: from nil share two years ago to an 18-month order book that includes >30 kt of coke oven orders. Margin levers in place: Flow Control mix (21-23% EBITDAM), captive quartzite mines and the MINPRO recycling JV support a 41% gross margin by FY28F.
Valuation: 30x FY28F Adj EPS of INR 16.4 gives a TP of INR 492, backed by volume visibility, margin levers and net cash.
CarTrade Tech Ltd
Online marketplaces Research Analyst – Dhiraj Kaswan
BUY CMP 2,493 TP 3,517 Upside 41%
Intro
India’s leading multi-channel auto and classifieds marketplace across Consumer (CarWale, BikeWale), Remarketing (Shriram Automall, 55.43% owned) and Classifieds (OLX India). 2QFY27 revenue hit a record INR 213 Cr (+10% YoY) and EBITDA rose 20% YoY to INR 76 Cr at a 35.7% margin; cash reserves exceed INR 1,400 Cr.
Investment rationale
OLX accelerating: Classifieds revenue grew 26% YoY to INR 70 Cr and EBITDA 42% at a 38.1% margin; management guides growth to accelerate to 30-35%. Remarketing at record margins: revenue +12% and EBITDA +29% YoY, with margin up 394 bps to 30.2% on higher-margin retail auctions at SAMIL. Consumer set to rebound: revenue grew only 4% YoY on a high GST-led base and the festive shift into 3Q; management guides 3QFY27 to be its best-ever quarter. Operating leverage: a largely fixed cost base lifts EBITDA margin from 33.0% in FY26 to 42.7% by FY28E; ~20% QoQ group EBITDA growth is guided for 3QFY27.
Valuation: SoTP at 35x FY28E EV/EBITDA for Consumer and Classifieds and 30x for Remarketing gives a TP of INR 3,517.
Artemis Medicare Services Hospitals
Research Analysts – Dikshi Jain, Ninad Sarpotdar
BUY CMP 300 TP 437 Upside 46%
Intro
Record 2QFY27 revenue of INR 311 Cr (+13% YoY); EBITDA rose 8% YoY to INR 55 Cr, with margin at 17.6% on Raipur start-up losses. Flagship Gurugram delivered INR 298 Cr (+15% YoY) at a 23.8% margin, with international patients at 30% of revenue. Operational beds scale from 544 to ~2,000 by FY30E.
Investment rationale
Gurugram margin expansion: ARPOB up to INR 86,631 (INR 81,248 a year ago) and 68.1% occupancy lifted the EBITDA margin by 141 bps YoY. Raipur ramp-up underway: inaugurated on 3 Nov 2026; occupancy of ~10% is guided to reach 20-25% by FY27-end; we expect losses to stabilise in 18-24 months. Visible bed pipeline: Tower IV (250 beds) at Gurugram for 2HFY28; South Delhi VIMHANS (650+ beds) awaits environmental clearance and targets 4QFY30. Limited regulatory risk: a worst-case oncology margin cap would hit EBITDA by only 0.5-0.8%; the QIP is targeted for late Jan to early Feb 2027.
Valuation: 23x FY28E EV/EBITDA gives a TP of INR 437, with an FY28E EBITDA margin of ~18.8%.
Rolex Rings Ltd Auto ancillary – forgings
Research Analyst – Dhiraj Kaswan
BUY CMP 189 TP 251 Upside 33%
Intro
A Rajkot-based forger of bearing rings and driveline parts, supplying every major bearing OEM in India and global Tier-1s such as Allison and Magna/Getrag. FY26 closed a 15-year balance-sheet repair: debt-free with INR 367 Cr of net cash, then an INR 180 Cr buyback. Flat revenue since FY22 is cyclical, not structural.
Investment rationale
A demand problem, not a franchise problem: US Section 232 duties (~3% to 45%+) and a customer plant shutdown cut US exports ~30% in FY26; approvals and wallet share were not lost. Three growth engines: US exports +31% YoY in 1QFY27, Europe +25% in FY26 on China+1, domestic bearing rings +17%; guidance of mid-teens growth in FY27E. Growth is nearly free: at 60-65% utilisation, Rolex can carry INR 1,550-1,650 Cr of revenue without greenfield capex. Mix shift to higher margins: auto components (24-25% margins) crossed 50% of product revenue; EBITDA margin recovers from 20.1% to 22.5% by FY28E.
Valuation: 25x FY28E EPS of INR 10.05 gives a TP of INR 251. Key risks: US tariff relief reversal, customer concentration, inflation.
Lemon Tree Hotels Ltd Hotels
Research Analysts – Dikshi Jain, Ninad Sarpotdar
BUY CMP 115 TP 142 Upside 23%
Intro
India’s leading diversified hospitality operator (131 hotels, 11,811 rooms, 80+ cities, five brands) is demerging real estate ownership (Fleur Hotels) from hotel operations. Postdemerger, Lemon Tree becomes a debt-free, asset-light operator managing 20,000+ rooms by FY30, targeting 60%+ EBITDA margins.
Investment rationale
Pure asset-light platform: revenue shifts to high-margin management contracts and franchise fees as Lemon Tree becomes a 100% asset-light operator.
Preferred partner to Fleur Hotels: a 37.54% retained stake and preferred-partner status; we expect LTH to manage ~2,000 of Fleur’s 2,500-room addition target. Warburg Pincus capital: INR 960 Cr of equity at an INR 10,000 Cr valuation, plus matching debt capacity (D/E 1:1), gives Fleur INR 1,920 Cr of growth capital. Omaxe tie-up: an MoU to operate 10 hotel projects with 4,000 keys across Lucknow, Vrindavan, Ghaziabad, Greater Noida, Amritsar, Kaushambi and Faridabad.
Valuation: post-demerger SOTP gives a TP of INR 142: Lemon Tree standalone INR 74.75 plus Fleur Hotels INR 33.6 + INR 33.6.
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