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2026-11-03 12:39:45 pm | Source: Prabhudas Lilladher Ltd
Automobiles Sector Report : Demand Sustained, All Eyes on Festive Conversion By Prabhudas Lilladher Ltd
Automobiles Sector Report : Demand Sustained, All Eyes on Festive Conversion By Prabhudas Lilladher Ltd

Auto dispatches in Oct’26 remained resilient even as retail sales declined YoY due to deferred buying and earlier festivities last year. PV sales was buoyed by strong order backlog of MSIL along with other OEMs reporting their highest ever monthly wholesales. PV inventories seem to have risen further to the last reported ~44 days at the end of Sep’26 vs. ~39/34/33 days at the end of Aug’26/Jul’26/Jun’26. Alternative fuel penetration (EV/hybrid/CNG) in PV retail remained similar to petrol, while that for e2Ws slightly moderated to ~10%, and e3W penetration hovered near 65%. The CV industry continued to report strong performance driven by MHCV truck sales boosted by festive demand, infra-activities and healthy freight movement, with long-term drivers of replacement demand and economic activity to further support growth. Tractors declined YoY on a strong base, shift in festivities and patchy monsoons, but grew MoM. Festive conversion, rural demand, geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain disruptions and elevated input/ fuel prices will be key monitorables going forward.

OEM-wise highlights

* Mahindra & Mahindra: Decent auto sales (on a strong base). Strong T&BD performance to be further driven by economic activity and replacement demand amid cost pressures. Tractors decline on a strong base and shift in festivities (up MoM)

Overall group sales grew +1.5% YoY to 198.8k units. Total auto division sales grew +9.1% YoY (excl. T&B) to 131.1k units; domestic UVs, +2.4% YoY (73.3k units); and LCVs, +4.1% YoY (33.0k units). 3Ws continued their strong growth trajectory (+38.2% YoY) to reach 17.6k units. Auto exports surged by +76.9% YoY to 7.1k units. Tractor volumes declined by -12.0% YoY (+24.5% MoM) to 64.9k units (domestic: -13.1%, exports: +39.7% YoY). Total T&B division sales (CV > 3.5T, incl. SML) grew +39.5% YoY to 2.8k units. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +15.2% (1.12mn units); UVs: +16.9% (431.5k units), total auto: +21.7%; T&Bs: +24.2%; tractors domestic: +1.9%, tractors total: +2.5%.

* Maruti Suzuki: Strong domestic sales (on a high base) with rebound in exports. Records its highest ever monthly sales (incl. best domestic)

Overall, Maruti sold 276.1k units (+25.0% YoY). Its domestic PV sales (excl. sales to other OEMs) increased +20.5% YoY (212.4k units): passenger cars increased to 100.9k units (+18.4% YoY), and UVs, +26.1% YoY (97.8k units). Domestic LCVs (super carry) grew by +1.1% YoY to 4.4k units. Total domestic sales (incl. LCV and sales to other OEMs) stood at 226.3k units (+19.3% YoY), while exports grew to 49.9k units (+59.3% YoY). SUVs accounted for 46.0% (+205bps YoY, +265bps MoM) of its domestic PV sales. Export penetration stood at 18.1% of the overall portfolio (+390bps YoY, -65bps MoM). Overall production volumes for Oct’26 indicate much stronger growth in the SUV segment. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +27.4% (1.66mn units), domestic: +29.4%, domestic PVs: +33.0%, PCs: +31.2%, SUVs: +40.1%, exports: +18.4%.

* Tata Motors PV: Strong sales growth sustained. Exports surge on a low base PV sales grew +23.1% YoY to 75.4k units. Domestic sales rose +20.9% YoY to 73.9k units, while exports surged 9.5x YoY. Total EV sales reached 16.2k units (+74.9% YoY, +5.6% MoM) with 21.5% penetration (+640bps YoY, - 40bps MoM). YTD FY27 YoY: total PVs: +39.1% (459.7k units), domestic: +38.6% (450.7k units), exports: +68.4%, EVs: +94.3% with penetration at 21.3%.

* Hyundai Motor India: Posts its highest ever monthly sales (incl. highest ever domestic). Newly launched Bayon should boost growth. Venue records its highest ever monthly sales Overall volumes grew +17.7% YoY to 82.3k units. Domestic sales rose +16.7% YoY (62.8k units). Exports (which is the management’s focus) grew by +21.1% YoY (23.7% penetration). YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +8.7% (479.5k units), domestic: +13.0%, exports: -3.6%.

* Bajaj Auto: Sustained exports (slight decline MoM), strong and resilient domestic sales on a high base Overall sales grew +14.2% YoY to 591.9k units (domestic +11.8%, exports +18.0%). 2W volumes rose +13.3% YoY to 501.2k units: domestic +9.9% YoY (292.9k units), and exports +18.5% YoY (208.3k units). CV volumes grew +19.5% YoY to 90.7k units with domestic growth at +22.2%. YTD FY27 YoY: overall sales: +22.4% (3.58mn units), domestic: +8.2%, exports: +42.0%, 2Ws: +22.3% to 3.01mn units (domestic: +6.8%, exports: +42.4%), CVs: +23.3% to 571.3k units (domestic: +14.6%, exports: +38.8%).

* Eicher Motors: * Royal Enfield: Strong volumes sustained amid production ramp-up to meet the growing demand. 350cc+ and key international markets showing growth trajectory. FF C6 EV introduced in Hyderabad and Pune Overall volumes increased by +6.8% YoY (133.4k units), with domestic sales growth of +4.0% YoY (121.5k units) on a strong base, while international business (IB) grew +47.0% YoY. Sub-350cc & EV models grew +5.4% YoY (116.8k units), while 350cc+ models grew by +18.1% YoY. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +17.5% (842.5k units), sub-350cc & EVs: +21.1% (751.1k units), 350cc+: -5.1%, domestic: +19.6% (763.6k units), IB: +0.6%.

* VECV: Strong growth across domestic and exports Overall volumes grew by +34.9% YoY to 10.9k units. Domestic sales grew +36.9% YoY led by LMD (<18.5T, +42.7% at 6.1k units) and HD (≥18.5T, +44.9%), while domestic bus de-grew -5.1% YoY. Exports increased +30.0% YoY, while Volvo T&B declined by -1.8% YoY. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +23.6% (63.8k units), domestic: +25.7%, exports: +2.9%, Volvo T&B: +13.4%.

* Hero MotoCorp: Sustained domestic sales on a high base. Exports decline for the 4th consecutive month, but retail momentum sustained in key markets like Colombia and Bangladesh Overall volumes increased +15.5% YoY to 734.4k units. Domestic volumes grew +16.6% YoY (705.1k units), while exports declined -5.4% YoY. Total motorcycle sales increased by +10.3% YoY to 629.8k units. Scooter sales kept surging (+60.8% YoY). Domestic ICE volumes increased by +14.3% YoY to 675.0k units driven by scooters and 100cc motorcycles. VIDA (e2W) retail Vahan registrations jumped +80% YoY (+5% MoM) to 30.1k units with 13.6% market share. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +15.9% (4.28mn units), motorcycles: +11.0% (3.74mn units), scooters: +67.6% YoY, domestic: +16.4% (4.06mn units), exports: +6.3% (5.1% penetration). TVS Motor: Continued strong domestic growth momentum with exports growth outpacing domestic Overall volumes increased +28.8% YoY to 700.1k units. 2Ws grew +27.7% YoY to 670.7k units (domestic: +22.1%, exports: +50.6%). EV sales surged by +120.4% YoY (+8.5% MoM) to 71.4k units. 3W sales increased by +60.0% YoY (29.5k units) with contribution from both domestic and export sales. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +27.7% (4.25mn units), group total domestic: +24.7% (3.07mn units), exports: +36.3%.

* Ashok Leyland: Strong domestic growth, especially in MHCV trucks; bus sales decline further (domestic as well) Overall volumes grew by +22.8% YoY to 21.9k units. Domestic volumes increased by +24.0% YoY (20.2k units), with MHCV trucks increasing by +39.3% YoY, MHCV bus down by -5.8% YoY, and LCVs growing +13.1% YoY. Exports grew by +10.5% YoY. YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +21.7% (135.3k units), domestic: +23.8%, (MHCV trucks: +34.3%,

* MHCV bus: -5.6%, LCVs: +19.7%), exports: -0.8%. Tata Motors CV: Strong momentum continues driven by exports (surges for 5th consecutive month), domestic ILMCV and passenger carriers Overall sales grew +27.0% YoY to 47.7k units (double-digit growth across all sub-segments). Domestic sales increased +13.3% YoY (39.8k units): HCV +12%, ILMCV +17%, passenger carriers +20%, and SCV PU +11%. Exports surged +224.9% YoY (7.9k units). MH&ICV grew +16.0% YoY (domestic: +16.0% YoY). YTD FY27 YoY: overall: +33.7% (291.3k units), domestic: +26.0%, exports: +131.0%.

* Escorts Kubota: Domestic tractor sales decline with demand moderation anticipated due to pricing actions. Strong CE sales driven by infra and project execution with expectations of positive but moderate growth ahead Tractors declined (-10.0% YoY to 16.9k units) with domestic sales down -10.9% YoY to 16.4k units (up +10.1% MoM). YTD FY27 YoY: tractors: +5.5% (87.8k units), domestic: +6.2% (84.5k units). Construction Equipment (CE) continued to surge by +41.6% YoY on a low base. YTD FY27 YoY: CE: +41.3% (3.8k units).

 

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