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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.18% to settle at Rs.85,877, driven by profit booking after initial support from weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the expected 160,000, while the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.1%. Wage growth, however, ticked up to 4%. Additional labor market data showed a spike in layoffs to a four-year high, though jobless claims declined more than anticipated. Meanwhile, global trade tensions persisted, with China’s retaliatory tariffs set to take effect, keeping market uncertainty elevated. China’s central bank continued its gold-buying spree for the fourth straight month, increasing reserves to 73.61 million fine troy ounces in February. However, gold demand in India remained subdued due to near-record prices and end-of-financial-year reluctance among jewellers. Discounts on gold in India ranged from $10 to $21 per ounce over official domestic prices, slightly narrower than the previous week's $12 to $27 discount. In China, gold traded between a $1 discount and a $3 premium, while Singapore saw a range of a $0.50 discount to a $3 premium. Looking ahead, India’s gold consumption in 2025 is expected to moderate from last year’s nine-year peak of 802.8 metric tons, as higher prices weigh on jewellery demand. However, investment demand in ETFs, digital gold, and bullion remains strong. Technically, gold saw fresh selling with open interest rising by 1.87% to 15,114 contracts. Support is seen at Rs.85,595, with a potential decline to Rs.85,310. Resistance is at Rs.86,260, with an upward move possibly testing Rs.86,640.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 85310-86640.

* Gold dropped on profit booking after seen supported as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected jobs data.

* The latest nonfarm payroll report showed the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February.

* China’s gold reserves went up for a fourth consecutive month in February to 73.61 million fine troy ounces.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.96% to settle at Rs.97,201 due to profit booking after recent gains. Market sentiment was influenced by uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. While exemptions for Mexican and Canadian goods under the USMCA were granted for a month, future relief was ruled out, keeping investor concerns elevated. Additionally, non-farm payrolls rose by just over 150,000, slightly missing expectations, while the unemployment rate edged higher. UBS projects silver to reach $38 per ounce in 12 months, citing a consolidation in gold prices and a recovery in global industrial production. Comex silver inventories surged to a record high of 403.2 million ounces by February 27, reflecting strong stockpiling. Hecla Mining reported a 13% increase in silver output, reaching 16.2 million ounces in 2024 - the second-highest level in its history. However, demand concerns persist, with U.S. silver coin purchases down 27% year-over-year in January, the lowest since 2018. Despite weaker demand in some areas, the silver market is expected to face another deficit in 2025. Global silver demand is forecasted at 1.20 billion ounces, with industrial fabrication set to grow by 3%, driven by green economy applications. Meanwhile, global supply is projected to rise by 3% to an 11-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, led by increased mine production and recycling. Technically, silver is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 7.33% to 19,279 contracts. Support is at Rs.96,520, with a potential dip to Rs.95,840. Resistance is at Rs.98,040, and a breakout could push prices towards Rs.98,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 95840-98880.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices gained as uncertainty grew over U.S. President Trump’s shifting tariff policies.

* UBS forecasts silver to reach $38/oz in 12 months

* US trade deficit hits record high in January on imports surge

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 1.28% to settle at Rs.5,858, supported by comments from Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who hinted that OPEC+ might reconsider its output increase after April. This statement fueled optimism in the market, despite a 5% decline in China’s crude oil imports in the first two months of 2025. The drop in imports was attributed to stricter U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil shipments and port restrictions in China, impacting the world’s top importer. In the U.S., crude oil inventories showed mixed trends. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a drawdown of 1.455 million barrels for the week ending February 28, marking the second consecutive week of declines. However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected inventory build of 3.614 million barrels, driven by a 1.124 million barrel increase at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles, however, saw notable declines, with gasoline stocks falling by 1.433 million barrels and distillates dropping by 1.318 million barrels. On the production front, the EIA revised its outlook for U.S. crude oil output, projecting an average of 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, slightly higher than previous estimates. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest fell by 20.45% to 5,486 contracts. Support is at Rs.5,780, with a possible test of Rs.5,701, while resistance is at Rs.5,942, and a breakout could push prices towards Rs.6,025.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5701-6025.

* Crude oil gains as Russia's Novak hints at OPEC+ output reversal

* China's crude oil imports fell 5% in the first two months of 2025 versus year-ago levels

* Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 3.614 million barrels in the week ended February 28, 2025.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices declined by 1.6% to settle at Rs.367.9, driven by record output and a smaller-than-expected storage draw. The market had initially spiked earlier in the week due to record LNG export flows and concerns that Canada might limit power and gas exports to the U.S. after the recent tariff impositions by President Donald Trump. However, these gains were erased as the supply outlook remained strong. Average gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. states reached 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, up from the previous record of 105.1 bcfd in February. Despite this, daily output showed a decline over the past six days, hitting a one-week low of 104.5 bcfd. LSEG projects that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, will drop from 119.2 bcfd this week to 111.0 bcfd next week. U.S. utilities withdrew 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage for the week ending February 28, below market expectations of 96 bcf. Storage levels now stand 24.9% lower than last year and 11.3% below the five-year average. The EIA forecasts that U.S. dry gas production will rise to 104.6 bcfd in 2025 and 107.3 bcfd in 2026, while LNG exports are expected to hit 14.0 bcfd in 2025 and 16.2 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 8.1% to 16,004 contracts. Support is at Rs.360.8, with a potential test of Rs.353.7, while resistance is at Rs.374.5, and a breakout could push prices to Rs.381.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 353.7-381.1.

* Natural gas fell on record output and last week's storage draw was smaller than expected.

* EIA said energy firms pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 28.

* Gas stockpiles, however, remained about 11% below normal levels for this time of year.

Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.97% to settle at Rs.882.25 due to profit booking after recent gains fueled by expectations of further stimulus from China. Market sentiment remained optimistic as Chinese officials indicated potential monetary policy easing and additional stimulus if economic growth weakened. Investors anticipate more measures from China’s National People’s Congress to counter the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. However, fundamental pressures weighed on prices. Citi projected that copper prices outside the U.S. could drop to $8,500 per ton in Q2 due to unwinding investor positions amid tariff concerns. Additionally, China's copper inventories surged to nearly 270,000 tons, tripling since the start of the year. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw a 2.1% year-on-year decline in copper output in January to 426,889 metric tons. The global refined copper market recorded a 22,000-ton deficit in December, significantly lower than November’s 124,000-ton shortfall. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that the market was in surplus by 301,000 tons in 2024 compared to a 52,000-ton deficit in 2023. China’s unwrought copper imports fell 7.2% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025 due to increased domestic smelting capacity, while copper concentrate imports rose slightly by 1.3%. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 12.64% to 6,201 contracts. Support is at Rs.878.2, with a potential test of Rs.874.2. Resistance is seen at Rs.888.1, and a breakout could push prices towards Rs.894.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 874.2-894.

* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained buoyed by expectations of further stimulus from China.

* Chinese officials flagged more monetary policy easing "at an appropriate time" and left the door open to more stimulus measures.

* China's unwrought copper imports declined by 7.2% year-on-year to 837,000 metric tons in the first two months of 2025.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.96% to settle at Rs.273.15, pressured by weak trade data from China and concerns over the impact of volatile U.S. tariff policies. Chinese imports unexpectedly contracted over January-February, while exports also lost momentum. The country's growing trade surplus with the U.S. heightened fears of escalating trade tensions, further dampening sentiment. The announcement of fresh tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on China, Canada, and Mexico, followed by retaliatory levies from China, added to market uncertainties. On the supply side, global mined zinc production declined for the third consecutive year in 2024, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). The drop in production was attributed to lower processing rates, particularly in China, where refined zinc output fell by 7%. Additionally, the impending slowdown of Alaska's Red Dog Mine, which accounts for 10% of global zinc output, is expected to tighten supply further in 2025. The global zinc market moved into a deficit of 62,000 metric tons in 2024, compared to a surplus of 310,000 tons in the previous year. Meanwhile, global refined zinc demand remained steady at 13.6 million tons, with declines in China, Europe, and the U.S. offset by increased consumption in Brazil, India, and South Korea. Technically, zinc is undergoing long liquidation, as open interest dropped by 8.19% to 2,151 contracts. Support is seen at Rs.271.5, with a potential test of Rs.269.8, while resistance is likely at Rs.275.2, and a breakout above this could push prices toward Rs.277.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.8-277.2.

* Zinc dropped on weak trade data from China and as investors reduced positions amid volatile changes in U.S. tariff policy.

* Data showed Chinese imports unexpectedly shrank over January-February, while exports lost momentum.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.30% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.08% to settle at Rs.264.6, supported by expectations of tightening supply despite record-high output in China. In 2024, China produced 44 million metric tons of aluminium, the highest on record. However, production is expected to slow this year due to Beijing's long-standing cap of 25 million tons to control excess supply and meet carbon emission targets. Additionally, China’s decision to end tax rebates on aluminium exports led to muted overseas shipments, shifting more supply towards the domestic market and supporting prices in foreign markets. On the demand side, China’s government announced an increase in its budget deficit, allowing for higher spending on infrastructure through special bonds, which is expected to boost aluminium consumption. JP Morgan forecasted a severe tightening in the global aluminium market, with a projected deficit exceeding 600,000 metric tons in 2025, mainly due to sluggish supply growth. Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed global primary aluminium output in January rose 2.7% year-on-year to 6.252 million tons. Meanwhile, China's aluminium production in December increased by 4.2% year-on-year to 3.77 million metric tons, driven by new production capacity in Xinjiang. Technically, aluminium is seeing fresh buying momentum, as open interest increased by 1.56% to 3,195 contracts. The metal finds support at Rs.263.1, with a potential test of Rs.261.6, while resistance is seen at Rs.265.8, and a breakout above could push prices toward Rs.267.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 261.6-267.

* Aluminium rose as lower supply from major producers magnified expectation of stronger demand.

* U.S. President announced import tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium are still scheduled to take effect on 12 March.

* Aluminium exports out of China were muted after the government ended tax rebates on overseas sales

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices declined by 0.21% to Rs.52,550 due to a significant increase in supply and subdued mill buying. Mills are currently well-stocked and have no immediate purchasing requirements, contributing to weaker demand. Brazil’s cotton production for the 2024-25 season is expected to rise by 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, with a 4.8% increase in planting area, signaling ample supply. Additionally, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is expected to procure over 100 lakh bales at the Minimum Support Price (MSP) this season. According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), total cotton output for the 2024-25 season is estimated to decline to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yields in Gujarat and northern regions, compared to 327.45 lakh bales in the previous season. By January 2025, the total cotton supply was 234.26 lakh bales, consisting of 188.07 lakh bales from fresh pressings, 16 lakh bales from imports, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Meanwhile, cotton consumption up to January was 114 lakh bales, and export shipments stood at 8 lakh bales. Ending stock levels were estimated at 112.26 lakh bales. CAI retained its domestic consumption projection at 315 lakh bales for the season, while exports are expected to decline to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales in 2023-24. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 257 contracts. Immediate support is at Rs.52,420, and a break below could push prices to Rs.52,290. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.52,760, with a potential move towards Rs.52,970 if prices rise further.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52290-52970.

* Cotton prices dropped due to a substantial increase in supply and limited mill buying.

* CCI is likely to buy more than 100 lakh bales of cotton at MSP during the current cotton year.

* CAI the overall cotton output is estimated to dip to 301.75 lakh bales due to lower yield in Gujarat and the northern region.

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25320.5 Rupees dropped by -0.07 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled lower by 1.84% at 11,768 as the arrival of the new crop commenced in key markets. Despite an increase in the cultivation area to 3.30 lakh hectares this season, a 10% rise from the previous year's 3 lakh hectares, overall production may not witness a proportional increase due to untimely rains impacting productivity. Last year, turmeric production stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes, but with an estimated 10-15% decline in productivity, especially in regions like Nanded, this year’s output may remain steady or fluctuate by 3-5%. However, the downside remains limited as concerns persist over slow rhizome growth and lower yields. The Nanded region is particularly affected by small rhizomes and some crop rots, reinforcing worries about supply constraints. The impact will become clearer as harvesting progresses in major producing areas. On the trade front, turmeric exports from April to November 2024 jumped 9.80% to 121,601.21 tonnes compared to 110,745.34 tonnes in the same period in 2023. However, monthly exports in November 2024 dropped by 20.18% to 12,721.25 tonnes compared to October 2024 but were still 48.22% higher than November 2023. Meanwhile, turmeric imports surged by 101.80% during the April-November period, reaching 18,937.95 tonnes, though they saw a monthly decline of 34.84% in November. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping marginally by 0.04% to 12,755 contracts. Immediate support is at 11,674, with further downside potential at 11,582, while resistance is seen at 11,904, and a break above this level could push prices towards 12,042.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11582-12042.

* Turmeric dropped as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.

* However downside seen limited as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year

* Turmeric exports during Apr - Nov 2024, jump by 9.80 percent at 121,601.21 tonnes as compared to 110,745.34 tonnes exported during Apr - Nov 2023.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12399.85 Rupees dropped by -1.43 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.5% to settle at 20,865 amid subdued demand as current export requirements are being met from available stocks. Farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Despite this, the downside remains limited due to a delayed start to the new crop in Gujarat by about a month, following unfavorable weather conditions that pushed back sowing in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan. Production for the current season is estimated to be similar to last year, with cumin output reaching 8.6 lakh tonnes from an area of 11.87 lakh hectares, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares the previous year. The availability of Indian cumin at a lower price than its global counterparts is expected to attract strong export demand, particularly from China. Indian cumin is currently priced at $3,050 per tonne, while Chinese cumin is $200–$250 higher, making India the most competitive supplier. Jeera exports surged by 74.04% to 147,006.20 tonnes during April-November 2024, compared to 84,467.16 tonnes in the same period in 2023. However, November 2024 exports declined by 28.92% from October but remained 42.67% higher than November 2023. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping slightly by 0.12% to 2,478 contracts. Jeera has immediate support at 20,790, with further downside potential to 20,720, while resistance is seen at 20,940, with a break above potentially leading to 21,020.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20720-21020.

* Jeera dropped as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.

* However, only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.

* However downside seen limited as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21150.2 Rupees dropped by -0.04 percent.

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