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Bullion –

Spot gold rose marginally yesterday while silver gained 1.56%, marking a second day of advances amid a weaker US dollar and growing expectations of interest rate cuts. The dollar fell to a two-week low, while US 10-year Treasury yields edged lower. CME FedWatch shows a 94% probability of a September rate cut following mild July inflation data, limited tariff pass-through, and earlier weak jobs data, with another cut expected by year-end. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside ongoing US tariff risks, continue to underpin safe-haven demand. Today, gold extends gains to $3,360 ahead of US PPI and jobless claims data. However, optimism over upcoming talks between US, European, Ukrainian, and Russian leaders, could cap sharp upside.

Crude Oil –

WTI crude oil prices dipped below $62 per barrel, the lowest level since early June, pressured by bearish supply-demand forecasts from both the IEA and the US government. In its latest monthly report, the IEA projected global oil supply will increase by 2.5 million bpd in 2025, up from the previously forecast 2.1 million bpd, and by a further 1.9 million bpd in 2026. Meanwhile, oil demand is now expected to grow by only 680,000 bpd in 2025 and 700,000 bpd in 2026, both revised down by 20,000 bpd from last month’s estimates. Further, the EIA reported a surprise build of 3 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, in the week ending August 8. Oil prices attempted a modest recovery today, as traders remain cautious ahead of a high-stakes meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska tomorrow as Trump has warned of "severe consequences" if Putin refuse to agree to a peace plan for Ukraine.

Natural Gas –

NYMEX gas futures attempted a recovery on Wednesday after hitting a nine-month low of $2.76/mmBtu However, near-record levels of U.S. gas production and ongoing forecasts for cooler-than-normal weather limited sharp upside.

Base metals -

LME metals closed lower, with zinc leading the decline, slipping nearly 1% to $2,829/ton, followed by copper, which slipped to $9,803/ton. Sentiment was weighed by concerns over China’s slowing credit growth, as a rare contraction in new bank lending in July signaled softer domestic demand, while traders awaited key Chinese data. Copper saw further pressure from US inventory builds that have now persisted for 100 consecutive days, despite Trump exempting refined metal from the proposed 50% import tariff. Losses were partially offset by a weaker US dollar. Freeport-McMoRan’s prolonged maintenance shutdown at its Indonesian plant released around 100,000 tons of copper concentrate, easing immediate tightness, while a separate mine that halted output due to a tunnel collapse is expected to resume operations soon. Today, LME metals are trading mixed as markets await Chinese data for signs of improvement amid ongoing trade concerns.

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Silver

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