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Bullion Outlook

* Spot Gold is likely to rise towards $3400 on growing optimism over a 50- bps rate cut in September. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent urged the Fed to start the series of rate cuts with 50 bps cut in September. The CME Fed watch tool indicates more than 93% probability of 25 bps rate cut in September and more than 64% probability of another 25-bps cut in October. Additionally, tariff concerns and uncertainty over this week’s Trump-Putin meet would support prices. Meanwhile, investors will eye on key US PPI numbers to get further clarity.

* Spot Gold is expected to hold the 50 day EMA support at $3330 and move higher towards $3400. MCX Gold October is expected to hold the support near Rs 99,700 and move back towards Rs 101,200 level.

* MCX Silver Sep is expected to hold support at Rs 113,800 and move higher towards Rs 116,400 level. Only above Rs 116,400, it may rise towards Rs 117,200.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to move in a tight range ahead of key economic numbers from China. Supply concerns from Codelco’s EI Teniete operation and rate cut hopes from the US Fed would provide support to the metal. Meanwhile, weaker than expected loan growth in China and expectation of sluggish growth in the industrial production and retail sales numbers would weigh on prices. Additionally, rising LME inventory levels would also limit its gains.

* MCX Copper August is expected to hold its 50-day EMA support at Rs 883 and move higher towards Rs 895 level.

* MCX Aluminum August is expected to consolidate between Rs 252 and Rs 256 level. Only above Rs 256, it would turn bullish towards Rs 259. MCX Zinc August is likely to move north towards Rs 272 level as long as it stays above Rs 266 level. Move below Rs 266 it would turn weaker towards Rs 264.

Energy Outlook

* Crude oil is likely to take pause in its decline ahead of the talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Most investor will remain cautious ahead of the meeting. Any unfavorable outcome would lead to further sanction on Russian oil, which could bring volatility in prices. Meanwhile, forecast of higher output in the coming year by OPEC and the EIA would weigh on oil prices.

* On the data front, 60 put strike has higher OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside 65 call strike, has higher OI concentration, which would act as immediate hurdle. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to consolidate in the band of Rs 5400 and Rs 5600 level. A move below Rs 5400 would turn weaker.

* MCX Natural gas August future is expected to remain under pressure and move towards Rs 235, as long as it trades under Rs 255.

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