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Gold

Gold prices edged marginally lower, settling 0.02% down at Rs1,43,121, as investors booked profits after a fresh record high and safe-haven demand softened. Sentiment was weighed by a calmer geopolitical tone after President Donald Trump indicated that Iran’s crackdown on protesters appeared to be easing and that large-scale executions were unlikely, reducing immediate risk premiums. On the macro front, softer-than-expected November PPI data, both headline and core, reinforced signals from a benign December CPI, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve has room for multiple rate cuts this year, although some policymakers remain cautious about persistent inflation risks. Physical indicators showed mixed trends, with gold holdings in London vaults rising 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tons, highlighting steady institutional demand. Elevated prices curbed buying in India, where premiums eased to up to $6/oz, while China saw a sharp jump in premiums to as high as $21/oz, reflecting renewed retail interest and ongoing central bank accumulation. Outlook remains structurally positive, with major banks such as Commerzbank, HSBC, and UBS projecting gold prices between $4,800–$5,000/oz in 2026, citing geopolitical risks, rising debt, and sustained central bank buying. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.01% alongside a mild price decline. Gold has immediate support at Rs1,42,225, below which it may test Rs1,41,330. Resistance is seen at Rs1,43,750, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs1,44,380.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141330-144380.

* Gold prices fell as investors booked profits following a fresh record, while a softer tone from President Trump reduced safe-haven demand.

* Trump said reports indicated that Iran’s crackdown on anti-government protesters was easing.

* US November producer prices, both headline and core, came in softer than expected, reinforcing signals from a tame December CPI report.

Silver

Silver prices posted a strong rebound, settling 1.24% higher at Rs2,91,577, supported by easing inflation concerns and continued macro uncertainty. Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from imposing immediate tariffs on critical mineral imports, opting instead for negotiations to secure supply chains, although the possibility of future restrictions remains. Safe-haven demand moderated somewhat as geopolitical tensions eased following comments that executions of protesters in Iran had stopped, reducing fears of near-term military escalation. Recent U.S. economic data had limited impact on Federal Reserve expectations, while concerns around central bank independence also softened. Fundamentally, silver remains supported by tight inventory dynamics despite some demand headwinds. Silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes by end-December 2025, highlighting strong institutional positioning. Outlook projections remain bullish, with Commerzbank forecasting silver at $95/oz by end-2026, while HSBC raised its 2026 forecast to $68.25/oz, citing a weaker dollar and mild supply-demand deficits, though warning of volatility. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up 0.99% alongside a sharp price rise. Silver has immediate support at Rs2,81,650, below which it could test Rs2,71,720. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs2,97,235, and a breakout may open the path toward Rs3,02,890.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 271720-302890.

* Silver gains as markets weighed easing inflation signals against persistent macro and political risks.

* Safe-haven demand eased after Trump said he had been assured that executions of protesters in Iran had stopped

* The latest batch of US economic data had little impact on expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices witnessed a sharp correction, settling 3.9% lower at Rs5,366, as geopolitical risk premium eased and supply-side concerns resurfaced. Sentiment weakened after U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to step back from earlier threats of potential military action against Iran, reducing immediate disruption fears. Adding to the bearish tone, Venezuela has started reversing oil production cuts imposed under the U.S. embargo, with crude exports resuming. Pressure was further amplified by a sharp build in U.S. crude inventories, the largest in months, reinforcing near-term oversupply concerns. On the data front, U.S. crude stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels, against expectations of a draw, while gasoline inventories surged by 9 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts. The EIA, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, projected U.S. crude output to peak in 2025 before easing to 13.59 mbpd in 2026 and 13.25 mbpd in 2027, while petroleum demand is expected to remain largely stable. Globally, the IEA trimmed its projected surplus for 2026, citing improving macro conditions and lower supply growth, even as OPEC+ modestly increased November output and maintained a constructive demand outlook. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 9.77%, indicating aggressive short positioning. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs5,322, and a break below could lead to Rs5,279. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs5,424, and a move above this level could test Rs5,483.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5279-5483.

* Crude oil fell as geopolitical risk eased after Trump softened threats of possible U.S. military action against Iran

* Venezuela has begun reversing oil production cuts made under a U.S. embargo, with crude exports also resuming.

* US crude output to ease in 2026, while demand remains flat, says EIA data

Natural gas

Natural gas prices ended higher, settling 0.82% up at Rs283.1, supported by record flows to LNG export facilities and colder weather forecasts boosting heating demand expectations. Feedgas deliveries to LNG plants remained robust, with flows to Freeport expected to rise toward 1.4 bcfd, up from 0.7 bcfd earlier, though still below its recent average of 1.9 bcfd. Weather models continue to point to colder-than-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. through January 29, likely lifting residential and commercial gas consumption in the coming weeks. On the supply side, domestic production has eased slightly, averaging 109.3 bcfd in January, below December’s record levels. Storage data also lent support, as U.S. utilities withdrew 119 bcf of gas for the week ended January 2, well above market expectations. This pulled total inventories down to 3.261 tcf, now 3.6% below last year’s level, though still marginally above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. gas output to rise to fresh records in 2026–27, while domestic demand is expected to edge lower, with LNG exports forecast to climb steadily. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 11.22%, indicating unwinding of bearish positions. Natural gas has support at Rs273.4, and a break could test Rs263.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs291.9, and a move above may open the path toward Rs300.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 263.7-300.7.

* Natural gas edged up on record flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for colder weather.

* Deliveries to Freeport are expected to edge up toward 1.4 bcfd, up from 0.7 bcfd.

* Domestic production has eased slightly, averaging 109.3 bcfd in January, down from December’s record.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower, settling 0.36% down at Rs1308.5, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and easing concerns over the immediate imposition of U.S. tariffs on critical minerals. U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a pause on tariffs for rare earths, lithium and other key minerals, which weighed on sentiment, even as copper remains on the U.S. critical minerals list. Despite the decline, downside was cushioned by persistent flows of copper into the United States, where higher local premiums ahead of potential future tariffs have tightened availability in other regions. Fundamentally, supply-side developments remain mixed. Chile’s copper output is expected to rise to 5.5–5.7 million tons in 2026, but near-term disruptions persist. Production at Codelco fell 3% YoY in November, while output at BHP’s Escondida declined 12.8%, partially offset by marginal gains at Collahuasi. Tightness was evident on the LME, where registered inventories dropped 22% to a six-month low as metal continued to flow to the U.S., pushing the cash-to-three-month premium to $64 per ton. In contrast, Chinese fundamentals remain softer, with SHFE inventories rising 24.2%, reflecting surplus exports and subdued import appetite. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.5%, indicating new short positions. Copper has support at Rs1289.9, below which prices could test Rs1271.2. Resistance is seen at Rs1319.5, and a breakout could open the path toward Rs1330.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1271.2-1330.4.

* Copper dropped weighed down by easing concerns over a potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on critical minerals.

* Chin's import of copper increased 2.3% from a month ago to 437,000 metric tons in December

* Chile mining group sees 2026 copper output at up to 5.7 million tons

Zinc

Zinc prices moved higher, settling 0.49% up at Rs317.85, supported by optimism over demand prospects from China along with tightening inventories and ongoing supply disruptions. Sentiment was underpinned by expectations of reduced concentrate availability as several Chinese miners are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns. Notably, a southwest China mine that has largely met its annual production target is expected to cut zinc concentrate output by around 700 tonnes of metal content, while a central China mine is also planning a maintenance halt, reducing operating days. These developments have contributed to near-term supply tightness. However, upside remains capped by lingering concerns over China’s broader economic data. While factory activity unexpectedly expanded in December, ending an eight-month contraction streak, weakness in property investment and sales continues to cloud the demand outlook. On the inventory front, LME dynamics remain mixed. After the near depletion of off-warrant stocks earlier in 2025 triggered a sharp squeeze, deliveries surged, pushing total LME stocks up by over 84,000 tons in November and December, reinforcing expectations that 2026 could mark a shift from deficit to surplus. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 6.14%, indicating positions being unwound. Zinc has support at Rs315, with a break opening downside toward Rs312.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs320.1, and a move above could test Rs322.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 312.1-322.3.

* Zinc gains amid optimism over strong demand from China.

* Prices also gained supported by tightening inventories and ongoing supply disruptions.

* The cash LME zinc contract was trading at a discount of $14 a ton against the three-month forward.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged marginally lower, settling 0.05% down at Rs318.7, as a stronger U.S. dollar and easing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on aluminium weighed on sentiment. Additional pressure came from rising inventories, with aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports increasing 1.5% month-on-month to 316,800 metric tons by end-December. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, warehouse inventories also climbed 10.8% from late December, reflecting near-term supply availability. However, downside remained limited amid evidence of a structurally tight global market. The global primary aluminium market recorded a supply deficit of 108,700 tons in October, taking the cumulative shortfall for the first ten months of the year to 955,500 tons, as consumption of 62.17 million tons outpaced production of 61.22 million tons. Supply-side constraints persist, with high energy costs, equipment failures, bauxite shortages, and geopolitical risks disrupting smelters in regions including Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. In China, authorities reiterated their commitment to prevent overcapacity, with output growth constrained by the 45-million-ton cap, likely limiting expansion in 2026. This has already contributed to a 9.2% annual decline in aluminium exports in November. Policy support from Beijing also aided sentiment, as the central bank signaled further RRR and interest rate cuts in 2026 to support growth. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 3.14%. Aluminium has support at Rs315.7, with a break opening downside toward Rs312.6. Resistance is seen at Rs320.5, and a move above could test Rs322.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 312.6-322.2.

* Aluminium dropped on a stronger dollar and easing concerns over the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs .

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose to 316,800 metric tons at the end of December, up about 1.5%.

* Citi upgrades its 0-3 month aluminium price target forecast to $3,400/t (from $2,950/t)

Turmeric

Turmeric prices closed lower by 0.75% at Rs17,384, pressured by expectations of higher acreage amid favourable rains during the ongoing sowing season. India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with increased planted area; however, supply growth is expected to remain moderate due to weather irregularities and localized disease issues. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September led to waterlogging and disease pressure in parts of Maharashtra, affecting nearly 15% of the area and causing yield losses of 15–20% in some pockets. Despite this, higher acreage is likely to lift Maharashtra’s dried turmeric output to 54 lakh bags, compared with 47.5 lakh bags last year. At the all-India level, dried turmeric production is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks will cap overall availability. Downside in prices appears limited as arrivals remain below normal and both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced inventories. Domestic and international demand continues to be firm, supported by strong exports to Europe and the USA, while imports have declined sharply. Quality concerns such as rhizome rot and aflatoxin risk persist in low-lying fields, but increased adoption of IPM practices is supporting export-grade supply. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices edged up 0.21% to Rs16,804.6. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 3.2% to 17,250 alongside a price decline of Rs132. Turmeric has immediate support at Rs17,056; a break below could test Rs16,730. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs17,862, and a sustained move above this level may push price

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16730-18342.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.

* However downside seen limited as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16804.6 Rupees gained by 0.21 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged marginally higher by 0.06% to settle at Rs23,700, supported by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing across key producing regions. Uneven rainfall has slowed field preparation, with Gujarat witnessing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years. Jeera sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3,98,438 hectares, down 16.31% from 4,76,097 hectares last year, raising concerns over output for the current season. At Unjha, arrivals remain very low, and good-quality cumin continues to command premium prices. Supply tightness has also been reinforced by logistical and weather issues in India and the Middle East. However, upside in prices remains capped due to comfortable existing stocks and subdued export demand. Traders noted that the retail season has concluded and foreign buying interest remains muted, with current export requirements largely being met from available inventories. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded before season-end, leaving a carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Jeera production for the current year is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, mainly due to reduced sowing area. Exports during Apr–Oct 2025 declined 13.21% year-on-year, reflecting weak overseas demand despite lower supplies in competing origins. In the Unjha spot market, prices slipped 0.69% to Rs22,602.1. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 10.92% to 5,211 alongside a Rs15 price gain. Jeera has support at Rs23,600, with further downside seen towards Rs23,490. Resistance is placed at Rs23,810, and a breakout above this level could test Rs23,910.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 23490-23910.

* Jeera gains as weather issues and delayed sowing are keeping cumin prices strong.

* However upside seen limited due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Gujarat, Jeera sowing seen at 398,438 hectares down by 16.31% compared to last years 476,097 hectares.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22602.1 Rupees dropped by -0.69 percent.

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