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BJAUT logged a strong Q4, with revenue up 32% YoY led by 24%/6% YoY volume/ASP growth. EBITDA rose 36% YoY with EBITDAM flat QoQ at 20.8%, as pricing, currency tailwinds, richer mix, and operating leverage offset the cost inflation, higher discretionary spend, and the PM E-Drive phase-out impact in E-3Ws. BJAUT expects motorcycle industry volume growth to taper to 7-9% (Q4: 20%) due to consumer sentiment being hit by price hikes, elevated fuel price fears, and LPG shortage. BJAUT aims to outpace the motorcycle industry via the faster growing >125cc (especially >150cc) segment (multiple product actions lined up); BJAUT is also benefiting from accelerated E-2W/E-3W growth (capacity expansion imminent). BJAUT expects a 3-5% rise in commodity prices in Q1 and has taken price hikes to offset 30-40% of this impact so far and it believes the next round of price hikes would be the last; favorable currency tailwinds in exports too are helping offset commodity-related headwinds. Exports are on a strong footing, with run rate expected at >220k/mth units in Q1, aided by strong growth in LatAm and stable demand in Nigeria (at 35k/mth units 2W run-rate now); beyond Q1, the exports situation is monitorable, given the volatile currency situation. We raise FY27E/28E EPS by 2.5-4%, led by higher ASPs and higher growth in E-2W/premium motorcycle volumes. We retain BUY (refer to The best risk-reward within 2Ws; upgrade to BUY) and raise our SoTP-based TP by 5% to Rs12,600 from Rs12,000 at 26x FY28E core EPS.

Strong in-line operational performance with sustained EBITDAM

Revenue was up 32% YoY on a 24/6% YoY volume/ASP growth. EBITDA rose 36% YoY to Rs33.2bn, with EBITDAM flat QoQ at 20.8%, as a combination of pricing, currency tailwind, richer mix, and leverage helped offset cost inflation, higher discretionary spend, and the PM E-Drive phase-out impact in E-3Ws. PAT grew 38% YoY to ~Rs28.4bn.

Earnings call KTAs

1) Domestic motorcycle industry growth is expected to moderate in the near term to 7– 9% (vs 20% in Q4FY26) due to price hikes, potential fuel price fears, LPG shortages. BJAUT expects to outpace the industry, led by the >125cc segment (particularly >150cc segments). In E-2Ws and E-3Ws, growth is not only expected to continue but accelerate going forward; capacity expansion here is imminent for BJAUT. 2) Commodity costs are expected to rise 3–5% in Q1FY27, especially in steel/aluminium; aluminium/polymer supplies are tight on event-driven supply shocks, and the quantum of rise in commodities has stepped up vs the rise in Q4FY26. 3) BJAUT has taken price hikes to offset ~30–40% of this inflation so far, and expects the next round of price hikes to be the last. Favorable USD realizations (from exports) are also helping offset the commodity impact. 4) In exports, despite the global volatility, currency-led devaluation hasn’t materially impacted emerging markets (unlike India); LatAm particularly is seeing strong growth. Nigeria has stabilized (at FY25 levels) and is clocking 35k/mth and 5k/mth units in 2Ws and 3Ws. BJAUT is bullish on exports in Q1, and expects to clock >220k/mth units; beyond Q1, it remains a wait-and-watch situation. No sales have been lost due to logistics issues so far, but the situation continues to evolve. 5) BJAUT has not been able to fully meet demand for Chetak, with parameters turning favorable only toward the end of Q4 – capacity is now at 50k/mth units, but a substantial capacity increase is still needed. 6) BJAUT to introduce a stream of new products under Pulsar brand in the >125cc/>150ccplus segments and is working to change the launch timelines to as early as Jul-26.

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