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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its growth forecast for developing Asia, predicting 4.9% growth in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025, slightly lower than its previous projections. The downgrade reflects weaker consumption and economic performance in some regions. While China's growth forecast remains steady, India's projection for 2024 has been trimmed to 6.5%. ADB warns of downside risks due to potential shifts in U.S. trade and fiscal policies under President-elect Donald Trump, along with geopolitical tensions and China’s property market issues. Inflation forecasts for the region were also lowered, citing softer global commodity prices.

Key Highlights

* ADB reduces Asia's 2024 growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.0%.

* India’s growth projection for 2024 cut to 6.5% from 7.0%.

* U.S. policy shifts and geopolitical tensions pose significant risks.

* China’s growth forecast remains stable at 4.8% for 2024.

* Inflation forecast reduced due to weaker commodity prices.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its growth forecasts for developing Asia, projecting 4.9% growth in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025. This adjustment marks a slight decrease from its previous projections of 5.0% and 4.9%, respectively. The downgrades reflect weaker consumption patterns and disappointing economic performance in some countries during the third quarter of 2024.

India's growth forecast saw the most significant revision, with the 2024 projection reduced to 6.5% from 7.0%. For 2025, it was adjusted to 7.0%, down from 7.2%. In contrast, China’s growth outlook remains unchanged at 4.8% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, suggesting stability amid broader regional challenges.

The ADB highlighted potential risks stemming from U.S. policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump, including trade tariffs, immigration reforms, and tax cuts, which could disrupt regional growth. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and vulnerabilities in China’s property market are flagged as persistent downside risks.

Global commodity prices, which have softened, contributed to ADB lowering its inflation forecast for the region to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. This revision aligns with the cautious outlook for economic recovery in developing Asia.

Finally

ADB’s trimmed growth forecasts for Asia underline uncertainties from U.S. policies, geopolitical tensions, and global market conditions, warranting close monitoring of regional dynamics.

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