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Below the Quote on US Election 2024 by Dr. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief economist - Infomerics ratings 

Impact of Trump victory on India

Considered in a proper historical and comparative perspective, the comprehensive India-US relations have come a long way since the days of the Indo-Pak war of 1971, when the USA threatened to park the Seventh Fleet in the Indian Ocean. The strength and robustness of the India-US relations is reflected in the fact that over the last decade or even more, these relations have stood the test of time despite the change of parties and persons at the helm of affairs in the USA.

Given the geopolitical dynamics, the India-US bilateral ties in defense, trade, and strategic sectors would be impacted. The US is a leading investor in India, particularly in technology, infrastructure, renewable energy, and manufacturing sectors. India’s exports to the US including IT services, pharmaceutical drugs, and gems and jewellery could take a hit because of higher tariffs.

Sectors with significant exposure to US policies, viz., IT services and pharmaceuticals, and textile sectors could need a re-orientation because of changes in trade policies and healthcare reforms. But the bonhomie and the personal chemistry between the Indian PM and the US President could significantly help to smoothen ruffled feathers.  IT, pharmaceuticals, and textile sectors, which export significantly to the US, could be dented. Should Donald Trump romp home, India’s domestic growth path could get an impetus because of Trump’s focus on keeping oil prices low and stable.  

In the ideal world, it is the mandate of the Security Council to maintain international peace and security and contain conflicts within manageable proportions. But we are long past such notions of idealism and a Utopian world. The Security Council, as things stand now, is largely ineffective. In the world of international real-politics, an element of fear is essential for the smooth conduct of the relationship. And the present-day Security Council does not evoke any fear.

As Goswami Tulsidas wrote eloquently in his magnum opus Ramcharita Manas,

''There is no love without fear''

This may have been written five hundred years ago but it continues to resonate today.

The USA still has a disproportionately large influence on the world order. But with Russia and China becoming increasingly assertive on the global high table (e.g., Ukraine, Red Sea, Taiwan, etc.), and the US lacking the monolithic and overriding influence of yore, things are a’ changing- it’s a multi-polar world now.

The future American President, whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, may lack the stature and the charisma of Roosevelt, Truman, Woodrow Wilson, and Kennedy but they will continue to shape the global politico-economic order in a manner that hardly any other head of State can. Hence, it is natural for an environment of speculation to prevail globally.

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