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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.66% at 47633 weighed by rising U.S. Treasury yields, but the decline was capped by a weaker dollar, with investors awaiting U.S. consumer price data to gauge inflation. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to as much as 1.631%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing bullion. Fed officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth and several months of strong employment gains before they consider adjusting monetary policy, Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said. Investors were also awaiting the U.S. consumer price index for April, due on Wednesday, to gauge if the Federal Reserve will begin to alter its stance on inflation. India and China drove gold jewellery demand 52 per higher during the first quarter this year compared with the same period a year ago, but it was still lower than the average first quarter demand during 2015-2019, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). In its Gold Demand Trends 2021 report, the WGC said that jewellery offtake totalled 477.4 tonnes compared with 248.25 tonnes a year ago. The WGC said overall first quarter demand for gold, excluding over-the-counter, was 23 per cent lower than the first quarter last year at 815.7 tonnes. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.82% to settled at 7887 while prices down -318 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47301 and below same could see a test of 46969 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47989, a move above could see prices testing 48345.

Trading Ideas: 

* Gold trading range for the day is 46969-48345.

* Gold prices fell weighed by rising U.S. Treasury yields, but the decline was capped by a weaker dollar

* Fed officials would like to see higher inflation, more wage growth and several months of strong employment gains before they consider adjusting monetary policy

* The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to as much as 1.631%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing bullion.

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 71929 as worries around inflation spooked investors around the global markets. The upside remained limited as U.S. bond yields inched higher, with the yield on the key 10-year Treasury note rising 1.3 basis points to 1.631 percent. The modest uptick in bond yields extended some support the U.S. dollar. Investors look ahead to U.S. inflation data and speeches from Fed officials this week to see how authorities are likely to respond to receding risks posed by the coronavirus in some major economies. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told that he would be comfortable if inflation ran a little hot for a while. The Commerce Department released a report showing wholesale inventories in the U.S. jumped by slightly less than anticipated in the month of March. The report said wholesale inventories surged up by 1.3 percent in March after climbing by an upwardly revised 1.0 percent in February. The jump in wholesale inventories came as inventories of durable goods shot up by 1.3 percent and inventories of non-durable goods surged up by 1.4 percent. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.28% to settled at 10356 while prices up 385 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71204 and below same could see a test of 70479 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72316, a move above could see prices testing 72703.

Trading Ideas: 

* Silver trading range for the day is 70479-72703.

* Silver prices edged higher as worries around inflation spooked investors around the global markets.

* The upside remained limited as U.S. bond yields inched higher, with the yield on the key 10-year Treasury note rising to 1.631 percent.

* Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans told that he would be comfortable if inflation ran a little hot for a while.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.46% at 4800 after a report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that said demand will rise by 5.95 million barrels per day (bpd) or 6.6% this year supported oil prices. Colonial Pipeline, which transports more than 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, said that it was working to restore much of its operations by the end of the week. Russia's oil and gas condensate output from May 1 to May 10 rose to an average of 10.51 million barrels per day (bpd) from 10.46 million bpd on average in April, two sources familiar with the data told. Russia's output has edged following an agreement by the OPEC+ group of global oil producers to stick to a phased easing of curbs on production from May to July. Renewable energy grew at its fastest pace in two decades last year, led by China, and will continue to grow in the next two years, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed. New renewable energy capacity in 2020 rose by 45% to 280 gigawatts (GW) last year, the largest year-on-year increase since 1999, even though there were supply chain disruptions and construction delays due to the impact of COVID-19. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.8% to settled at 4916 while prices up 22 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4723 and below same could see a test of 4645 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4844, a move above could see prices testing 4887.

Trading Ideas: 

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4645-4887.

* Crude oil prices gained after a report from the OPEC that said demand will rise by 5.95 mbpd or 6.6% this year 

* Colonial Pipeline, transports more than 2.5 mbpd said that it was working to restore much of its operations by the end of the week.

* Russia's May 1 – 10 oil output rises to 10.51 mln bpd

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 217.8 followed the oil market higher despite forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders also noted prices were down with a small increase in output and a small decline in exports. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April, but still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 87.3 bcfd this week to 82.4 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv estimated. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near-record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to justify the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean. LNG plants pull in a little more gas than they export because some of the fuel is used to run the facility. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 5.9 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 6.1 bcfd, Refinitiv data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.12% to settled at 17896 while prices up 2.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 213.8 and below same could see a test of 209.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.8, a move above could see prices testing 221.9.

Trading Ideas: 

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 209.9-221.9.

* Natural gas followed the oil market higher despite forecasts for lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Traders also noted prices were down with a small increase in output and a small decline in exports.

* Speculators boosted their net long gas futures and options positions on the NYMEX and ICE to their highest since early March.

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.3% at 797.5 as a union representing workers at BHP Group's Escondida and Spence copper mines in Chile has called for a strike vote among its members after contract negotiations stalled, the union's president told. The 205 workers run the company's Integrated Operations Centre which manages pits and cathode and concentrator plants in the north of the country from the Chilean capital Santiago. Shortages of copper and dwindling inventories are likely to propel prices of the industrial metal to levels beyond current record highs, unless scrap supplies rise significantly. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange hit $10,747.50 a tonne, surpassing a record of $10,190 hit in February 2011, for a gain of 37% this year. Yangshan copper premium fell to $38.50 a tonne, the lowest since February 2016, indicating subdued Chinese appetite for imported metal. A group of 15 key copper smelters in China have agreed to cut their purchases of raw material copper concentrate in 2021 by 8.8% year-on-year, state-backed research house Antaike said, in a bid to boost flagging treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs). China is the world's top copper consumer and biggest producer of refined copper. Its biggest overseas concentrate suppliers are Chile and Peru. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.84% to settled at 3971 while prices up 10.25 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 790.6 and below same could see a test of 783.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 802, a move above could see prices testing 806.4.

Trading Ideas: 

* Copper trading range for the day is 783.6-806.4.

* Copper prices remained supported as Strike threat looms at BHP's Escondida and Spence copper mines in Chile

* Shortages, low stocks risk copper spiking to new records

* Yangshan copper premium fell to $38.50 a tonne, the lowest since February 2016, indicating subdued Chinese appetite for imported metal.

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.57% at 236.35 as China's factory gate prices rose at the fastest rate in three and a half years during April, official data showed, as the world's second-largest economy continued to gather momentum following record-setting growth in the January-March quarter. The producer price index (PPI), a gauge of industrial profitability, rose 6.8% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement, compared with a 6.5% rise tipped by a poll and a 4.4% rise in March. China's export growth beat market expectations in April while imports for the month hit a decade high, official data showed, underscoring robust economic activity for the world's second-largest economy. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by a record 18.3% in annual terms in the first quarter as the country recovers from the devastating impact of COVID-19. US debt traders expected the inflation rate to rise to the highest level since 2006 in the next five years, but it is unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates in the near term. In addition, the Sentix investor confidence index in May in the Eurozone highlights the expectation of global economic recovery. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.47% to settled at 2134 while prices up 1.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 234.9 and below same could see a test of 233.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.8, a move above could see prices testing 239.3.

Trading Ideas: 

* Zinc trading range for the day is 233.5-239.3.

* Zinc prices remained supported as China's factory gate prices rose at the fastest rate in three and a half years during April

* China's refined zinc output stood at 499,300 mt in April, up 0.49% or 2,500 mt on the month and up 4.11% on the year.

* Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 266,000 jobs last month after rising by 770,000 in March, the Labor Department said

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.44% at 1328.6 as the global vaccine roll-out gathers pace boosting expectations for stronger economic recovery and underpinning a rally in the metals market. Meantime, the commodity growing usage in lithium-ion batteries and the accelerated roll-out of electric vehicles remains a positive backdrop for markets. Indonesian state miner Aneka Tambang (Antam) said its nickel ore output rose more than four-fold in the first three months of 2021 compared to the same period a year ago. Antam's nickel ore output stood at 2.64 million wet metric tonnes (WMT) in the first quarter, up from 629,000 WMT in the same period in 2020, the company said in a statement. Antam's nickel ore sales, meanwhile, stood at 1.6 million wet metric tonnes in the first quarter, the company said. Eurozone investor confidence improved to the highest level in more than three years in May suggesting that the recession caused by the coronavirus has been overcome, survey results from Sentix showed. The investor confidence index rose notably to 21.0 in May from 13.1 in April. The score was the highest since March 2018. The reading was forecast to climb moderately to 14.0. Current assessment as well as expectations strengthened in May. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.86% to settled at 1475 while prices up 18.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1316.6 and below same could see a test of 1304.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1336.1, a move above could see prices testing 1343.7.

Trading Ideas: 

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1304.7-1343.7.

* Nickel prices rose as the global vaccine roll-out gathers pace boosting expectations for stronger economic recovery 

* Meantime, the commodity growing usage in lithium-ion batteries and the accelerated roll-out of electric vehicles remains a positive backdrop for markets.

* Indonesia's Antam Q1 nickel ore output up more than four – fold y/y

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 201 supported by shrinking primary aluminium social inventories. China's central bank said it would keep prudent monetary policy flexible, targeted and appropriate. In its first-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the People's Bank of China said global inflation and a low base effect could drive up China's producer price index (PPI) in the second and third quarter. However, the annual increase in the PPI for 2020-2021 is expected to stay within a reasonable range, it added. Eurozone investor confidence improved to the highest level in more than three years in May suggesting that the recession caused by the coronavirus has been overcome, survey results from Sentix showed. The investor confidence index rose notably to 21.0 in May from 13.1 in April. The score was the highest since March 2018. The reading was forecast to climb moderately to 14.0. Current assessment as well as expectations strengthened in May. The current situation index came in at 6.3, the highest since May 2019, versus -6.5 in the previous month. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.63% to settled at 1565 while prices up 0.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 199.1 and below same could see a test of 197 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 204.1, a move above could see prices testing 207.

Trading Ideas: 

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197-207.

* Aluminium prices seen supported by shrinking primary aluminium social inventories.

* China central bank says to keep monetary policy flexible, targeted

* Eurozone investor confidence improved to the highest level in more than three years in May

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 972.6 on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 29 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 968.2 and below same could see a test of 963.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 977, a move above could see prices testing 981.4.

Trading Ideas: 

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 963.8-981.4.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand 

* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 7465 as the markets focused on global supply concern. Madhya Pradesh, which had imposed restrictions on the sale of soyabean seeds outside the state, has revoked its order following protests by the Maharashtra government. After Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra is the biggest soyabean producing state in the country with farmers growing the oilseed in over 35-40 lakh hectares yearly. China's soybean imports in April rose 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by the arrival of some delayed cargoes, customs data showed. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 7.45 million tonnes of the oilseed in April, up from 6.714 million tonnes a year earlier, according to General Administration of Customs data. Chinese crushers have stepped up purchases of soybeans from top exporters Brazil and the United States in the early months of 2021, expecting higher demand as the country's pig herd recovers. European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 12.34 million tonnes by May 2, data published by the European Commission showed. Since Jan. 1, the European Commission's data has covered the EU's 27 countries only, whereas previous figures up to Dec. 31 covered both the EU-27 and Britain. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -38 Rupees to 7840 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.45% to settled at 47530 while prices up 6 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7389 and below same could see a test of 7314 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7532, a move above could see prices testing 7600.

Trading Ideas: 

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7314-7600.

* Soyabean prices gained as the markets focused on global supply concern. 

* China's April soybean imports climb 11% on year as delayed cargoes arrive

* European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 12.34 million tonnes.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -38 Rupees to 7840 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 1429.5 after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. However downside seen limited amid worries about global edible oils supply. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1485.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.29% to settled at 24235 while prices down -4.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1420 and below same could see a test of 1410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1437, a move above could see prices testing 1444.

Trading Ideas: 

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1410-1444.

* Refsoyoil prices dropped after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. 

* However downside seen limited amid worries about global edible oils supply.

* There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country.

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1485.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 1233.8 as Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of April rose 7.1% from the previous month to 1.55 million tonnes, data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed. Crude palm oil production jumped 7% from March to 1.52 million tonnes, while palm oil exports expanded 12.6% to 1.34 tonnes, MPOB said. Indian edible oil refiners are curtailing palm oil imports for May and June as most states have imposed curbs on hotels and restaurants to arrest rising coronavirus infections, denting institutional demand, industry officials said. Lower imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of the edible oil, could limit a rally in benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures , which hit their highest level since 2008. The country was expected to import 850,000 tonnes of palm oil per month in May and June, but now industry officials estimate imports could come down to around 650,000 tonnes. India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and other oils such as soy and sunflower from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -2 Rupees to end at 1241.5 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4% to settled at 4724 while prices down -7.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1223.2 and below same could see a test of 1212.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1244.1, a move above could see prices testing 1254.5.

Trading Ideas: 

* CPO trading range for the day is 1212.7-1254.5.

* Crude palm oil gained dropped as Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of April rose 7.1% from the previous month to 1.55 million tonnes

* Crude palm oil production jumped 7% from March to 1.52 million tonnes

* Data showed Malaysia's exports during May 1 to 10 rose between 29.6% and 36.8% from the same period in April. 

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -2 Rupees to end at 1241.5 Rupees.

 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 7502 pared gains on profit booking after prices seen supported as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% y-o-y, taking the total supply to decline by 2% to 923 lakh tonnes as compared to 944 lakh tonnes recorded in the last year. Total consumption and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% and 29% respectively. World export is also estimated to increase by 5% to 162 lakh tonnes as compared to 155 lakh tonnes last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.6% to settled at 69560 while prices down -4 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7448 and below same could see a test of 7394 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7573, a move above could see prices testing 7644.

Trading Ideas: 

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7394-7644.

* Mustard seed settled flat paring gains on profit booking after prices seen supported as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. 

* A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes.

* The stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.12% at 7708 on low level buying after prices dropped on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand. Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists' purchases dropping. Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Prices in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have slid to below ₹7,400 from about ₹8,400 at the start of the month. Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists. Turmeric goes to Gujarat, particularly to cities such as Bhavnagar, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad. But purchases from stockists have slowed down since they fear grocery stores will shut due to lockdown. According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports increased 34 per cent in volume during the April-December period of the last fiscal to 1.39 lakh tonnes (1.03 lakh tonnes). According to the first advance estimates of horticultural crop for the current season to June, turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.68% to settled at 8840 while prices up 160 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7622 and below same could see a test of 7534 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7774, a move above could see prices testing 7838.

Trading Ideas: 

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7534-7838.

* Turmeric prices gained on low level buying after pressure seen as prices dropped across various APMC yards in the country

* Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists' purchases dropping

* Turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7600 Rupees dropped -73.55 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 13895 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India's exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 12.5 Rupees to end at 14000 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.31% to settled at 5436 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13860 and below same could see a test of 13820 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13930, a move above could see prices testing 13960.

Trading Ideas: 

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13820-13960.

* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments

* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.

* The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 12.5 Rupees to end at 14000 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.64% at 22010 as exports of cotton and cotton products are rising, providing the best chance of recovery in the sector. However upside seen limited amid chances of some rain in parts of Texas, but persistent concerns over supply kept prices on track for a weekly gain. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 63,700 running bales for 2020/2021, down 17% from the previous week and 56% from the prior 4-week average. Post forecasts India's MY 2021/22 cotton production will increase by four percent to 29.5 million 480 lb. bales on a reduced area of 12.9 million hectares. Yields are expected to improve by five percent based on the expectation of a normal monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department. In April, cotton fiber and yarn prices decreased due to a surge in COVID-19 cases, which has led to a slowdown in the production and consumption of textile products. Domestic retail demand remains severely hampered by the pandemic; however, exports of cotton and cotton products are rising, providing the best chance of recovery in the sector. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption expects production during the current season (October 2020 to September 2021) to be at 360 lakh bales, slightly lower than the 2019-2020 estimate of 365 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 22220 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.88% to settled at 6229 while prices up 140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21900 and below same could see a test of 21800 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22070, a move above could see prices testing 22140.

Trading Ideas: 

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21800-22140.

* Cotton prices gained as exports of cotton and cotton products are rising, providing the best chance of recovery in the sector.

* India's MY 2021/22 cotton production will increase by four percent to 29.5 million 480 lb. bales

* Yields are expected to improve by five percent based on the expectation of a normal monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 22220 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 5481 on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, thus increase in total summer area coverage by 13.09 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of last year in the country. Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha. Pressure also seen as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases after prices gained in recent session due to expectation of better demand during the upcoming festival season. In addition, the government has initiated procurement at the minimum support price in major markets. Government agency Nafed has purchased 1.52 lakh tonnes of gram in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. According to the second advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture, a record 116 million tonnes of gram production is expected in the 2020-21 season. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -34.7 Rupees to end at 5465.3 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.96% to settled at 145050 while prices down -30 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5436 and below same could see a test of 5391 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5540, a move above could see prices testing 5599.

Trading Ideas: 

* Chana trading range for the day is 5391-5599.

* Chana dropped on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. 

* The farmers are bringing in lesser quantum for sale in the mandis currently, in anticipation of getting better returns for their produce.

* The Centre has extended the deadline for importing urad under the 2020-21 fical year quota of 1.5 lakh tonnes to May 15.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -34.7 Rupees to end at 5465.3 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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