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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 50970 pressured by a stronger dollar and as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised concerns of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Data showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in May and maintained a fairly strong pace of wage increases, signs of labor market strength. The payrolls report showed the US economy added more jobs than expected and price pressures continued to ease in May, strengthening the case for the Fed to continue its tightening plans. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening monetary policy beyond the half percentage point interest rate hikes expected at each of its next two meetings, two policymakers signaled, with the only question being how much. Gold discounts widened in India as demand faltered due to a rise in prices and a winding up of wedding season, while consumers remained wary of purchasing bullion in top consumer China amid a gradual relaxing of coronavirus restrictions. Demand from rural areas will fall further in coming weeks as monsoon rainfall has started and farmers will focus on sowing of summer-sown crops. Indian dealers offered a discount of up to $9 an ounce over official domestic prices, up from the last week's $5 discount. In China, gold was being sold at a discount of $0.5 to $1.5 an ounce premium versus global benchmark spot rates. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.25% to settled at 14191 while prices down -299 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50784 and below same could see a test of 50597 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51274, a move above could see prices testing 51577.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50597-51577.
* Gold prices fell pressured by a stronger dollar and as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised concerns of aggressive monetary policy tightening.
* The payrolls report showed the US economy added more jobs than expected and price pressures continued to ease in May
* Discounts widen in India as prices rise, wedding demand cools


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 61669 after the payrolls report showed the US economy added more jobs than expected and price pressures continued to ease in May, strengthening the case for the Fed to continue its tightening plans. The white metal remains about 20% below its March peak amid bets of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. The US Central Bank has raised its benchmark policy rate by half a percentage point for the first time since 2000 in early May while signaling it intended to increase it by the same amount in June. U.S. employment increased more than expected in May, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, signs of a tight labor market that could keep the Federal Reserve's foot on the brake pedal to cool demand. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 390,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report. Data for April was revised higher to show payrolls rising by 436,000 jobs instead of 428,000 as previously estimated. The U.S. central bank has increased its policy interest rate by 75 basis points since March. It is expected to hike the overnight rate by half a percentage point at each of its next meetings this month and in July. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said she saw little case for pausing in September. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8% to settled at 12227 while prices down -667 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61186 and below same could see a test of 60702 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62545, a move above could see prices testing 63420.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60702-63420.
* Silver dropped after the payrolls report showed the US economy added more jobs than expected and price pressures continued to ease in May
* U.S. employment increased more than expected in May, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%.
* Nonfarm payrolls increased by 390,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.1% at 9235 on doubts that producers belonging to OPEC+ can hike their crude output enough to make up for lost supply from Russia. A decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, to boost output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, instead of by 432,000 bpd as previously agreed, was seen as hardly enough for a tight market. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 5.1 million barrels in the week to May 27 to 414.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 256,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 236,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Net U.S. crude imports rose last week by 83,000 barrels per day, EIA said. U.S. East Coast distillate inventories fell last week to the lowest on record, Energy Information Administration data showed. East Coast distillate stocks fell to about 21 million barrels, the data showed. U.S. crude oil production rose in March by more than 3% to the highest since November, according to a monthly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 39.06% to settled at 12698 while prices up 190 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 9031 and below same could see a test of 8828 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9356, a move above could see prices testing 9478.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 8828-9478.
* Crude oil gains on doubts that producers belonging to OPEC+ can hike their crude output enough to make up for lost supply from Russia.
* U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said
* US East Coast distillate stocks fall to lowest on record – EIA


Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 667.2 on a slightly bigger than expected storage build and forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected. However, downside seen limited due to a drop in output in recent days, an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and record power demand in Texas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 27. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 85.1 bcfd this week to 85.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday, while the forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.7 bcfd so far in June from 12.5 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.35% to settled at 5381 while prices down -5.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 648 and below same could see a test of 628.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 681.2, a move above could see prices testing 695.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 628.8-695.2.
* Natural gas slid on a slightly bigger than expected storage build and forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected.
* However, downside seen limited due to a drop in output, an increase in the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants.
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 27.


Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 800 on profit booking after copper inventories in warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.3% from last week. Shanghai sprung back to life after two months of bitter isolation under a ruthless COVID-19 lockdown, with shops reopening and people going back to offices, parks and markets, hoping to never go through a similar ordeal again. Chile's environmental regulator initiated a sanction process against Antofagasta Minerals' Los Pelambres copper mine for deficiencies associated with tailings management. Chile's copper production fell in April, government body Cochilco said, with state-owned giant Codelco seeing output down 6.1% year-on-year to 116,000 tonnes and Collahuasi's production dropping by a sharp 26.5%. Collahuasi, a venture involving Glencore and Anglo American , produced 42,000 tonnes in the period, while output from another major mine, Escondida – which is controlled by BHP – rose 2.6% to 88,000 tonnes. Chile's total copper production in the month fell 8.9% to 420,000 tonnes, Cochilco said in a report. The Andean country is the world's top copper producer. Southern Copper Corp said a fire broke out at its Los Chancas mining project, around the same time as another fire started at MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine. Global copper supply will outpace demand over the next two years, helped by several upcoming large mine projects. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.51% to settled at 3853 while prices down -7.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 794 and below same could see a test of 787.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 810.4, a move above could see prices testing 820.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 787.9-820.7.
* Copper prices dropped on profit booking after copper inventories rose 4.3% in SHFE warehouse
* Chile's copper production fell in April, government body Cochilco said
* Codelco output down 6.1% year-on-year to 116,000 tonnes and Collahuasi's production dropping by a sharp 26.5%.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 335.4 as China's refined zinc output rose as COVID-related transportation disruptions eased and new capacity started up. Smelters produced 438,000 tonnes of zinc last month, up by 11,000 tonnes from a revised output of 427,000 tonnes in March and 0.2% higher than a year earlier. The increase mainly stemmed from new capacity additions and the resumption of output in Hunan, Gansu and Qinghai provinces and the Guangxi region, adding that transportation issues caused by movement restrictions to control COVID-19 outbreaks had gradually smoothed out in late April. Further zinc output is expected to rise to rise to 453,000 tonnes on recovering logistics and raw material supplies, though production for the first five months of 2022 will remain at lower levels on an annual basis. The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 6,300 tonnes in March from a revised surplus of 26,500 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 14,300 tonnes in February. During the first three months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 11,000 tonnes versus a surplus of 108,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.49% to settled at 1276 while prices down -1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 332 and below same could see a test of 328.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 339.3, a move above could see prices testing 343.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 328.6-343.2.
* Zinc dropped as China's refined zinc output rose as COVID-related transportation disruptions eased and new capacity started up.
* Further zinc output is expected to rise to rise to 453,000 tonnes on recovering logistics and raw material supplies
* The global zinc market moved to a deficit of 6,300 tonnes in March from a revised surplus of 26,500 tonnes a month earlier


Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 232.85 amid slowing demand and rising output. China is gradually reopening after two months of coronavirus lockdowns but there's uncertainty whether the economy will be able to fully recover. At the same time, China's aluminium production in April hit a record high after curbs on power production eased, with the country becoming a net exporter of the metal, with sales rising mainly to Europe. On the other hand, aluminum smelters in Europe continue to curtail production due to high energy costs, which was exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The ISM Services PMI fell to 55.9 in May of 2022 from 57.1 in April, pointing to the slowest increase in the services sector since February of 2021 and lower than market forecasts of 56.4. The S&P Global US Services PMI was revised slightly lower to 53.4 in May of 2022 from a preliminary of 53.5, and down from 55.6 in April to signal the slowest rate of expansion since January. Domestic and foreign client demand weakened in part due to hikes in selling prices and supplier delivery delays. Although output charges increased at a slower rate than April's survey high, the rise was marked overall and reflected soaring input prices, which increased at the sharpest pace on record. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.98% to settled at 3016 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 231 and below same could see a test of 229.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 234.9, a move above could see prices testing 236.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 229.1-236.9.
* Aluminum prices dropped amid slowing demand and rising output.
* China's aluminium production hit a record high after curbs on power production eased
* However, aluminum smelters in Europe continue to curtail production due to high energy costs


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.74% at 1047.7 on profit booking after prices seen supported in recent sessions amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Support also seen with Rupee weakness export demand is going to be firm also post pandemic global demand is improving. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -2.7 Rupees to end at 1183.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.9% to settled at 931 while prices down -18.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1040.2 and below same could see a test of 1032.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1060.2, a move above could see prices testing 1072.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1032.6-1072.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -2.7 Rupees to end at 1183.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported in recent sessions amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
With Rupee weakness export demand is going to be firm also post pandemic global demand is improving.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.6% at 8004 as the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased. Kocha arrivals are good at markets in Sangli, Hingoli and Nanded regions in Maharashtra. Due to aggressive coverages by oleoresin companies, prices were steady during the month. Panangali arrivals have started in Salem, Erode and Gundalpet markets. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Currently, export demand is normal but is expected to pick up. As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Feb 2022 were lower by 17% y/y at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Export demand too reported sluggish despite report of some queries from Bangladesh. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8238.35 Rupees gained 75.5 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.1% to settled at while prices up 48 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7938 and below same could see a test of 7874 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8058, a move above could see prices testing 8114.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7874-8114.
* Turmeric recovered from lows to end with gains as the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving.
* Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased.
* Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022 and crop is reported to be normal.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8238.35 Rupees gained 75.5 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 21295 because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities. On daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving. Similarly, in Rajasthan also daily arrivals have remained weak, in Jodhpur market around 1,500 bags, at Nagaur 500 bags and other centres 500 bags arrivals noted. Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected. Demand from China has declined due to higher domestic prices in India. Around 32,407 tonnes and 42,788 tonnes have been exported to Bangladesh and China respectively during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb). Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb) has declined by 24 percent at 1.91 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.52 lakh tonnes exported last year same period. In the month of February 2022 around 12,988 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 17,114 in February 2021. In International markets, Indian Jeera is quoted around 2850 to 2950 dollar per tonnes. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -41.85 Rupees to end at 21327.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.63% to settled at while prices up 245 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21030 and below same could see a test of 20760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21495, a move above could see prices testing 21690.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20760-21690.
* Jeera settled up because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities.
* Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-     Eid in July further increase in demand is expected.
* Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -41.85 Rupees to end at 21327.6 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.74% at 46220 on short covering as the USDA lowered its forecasts for global cotton supplies in 2022/23, as smaller beginning stocks more than offset a 2.6-million-bale increase in production, while consumption and ending stocks were also projected down. Cotton planting in India, could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high, as strong prices prompt farmers to switch away from other crops, an industry association said. Area planted to cotton in India could rise as much as 15% from last year because the crop is providing far better returns than alternatives, said Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India. A 15% rise in India's cotton crop area would lift it to around 13.8 million hectares in 2022 from 12 million hectares last year. The association expects the largest expansions in cotton area to be in the western states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, which together account for nearly half of the country's production. India is likely to receive average monsoon rainfall in 2022, while cotton-producing western states could get above-average rains, the weather department said. Amid unprecedented rise in cotton and yarn prices in the current season, Union Minister Piyush Goyal has directed the authorities concerned to "finalise the matter early", as regards to the extension of import duty waiver on cotton till December 31. In spot market, Cotton gained by 720 Rupees to end at 47210 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.51% to settled at 2720 while prices up 340 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 45440 and below same could see a test of 44670 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46840, a move above could see prices testing 47470.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 44670-47470.
* Cotton gains on short covering as the USDA lowered its forecasts for global cotton supplies in 2022/23.
* Cotton planting in India, could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high
* A 15% rise in India's cotton crop area would lift it to around 13.8 million hectares in 2022 from 12 million hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 720 Rupees to end at 47210 Rupees.

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