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COTTON

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.06% at 33310 due to production concerns and higher demand for raw cotton for export. However upside seen limited on expectations of lower demand for garments due to the resurgence of new Omicron coronavirus variant, higher supply, and as higher prices are hurting demand for supplies from top shipper US. Further, demand is muted in top producer India as fabrics manufacturers were hesitant for new purchases due to the proposed hike in taxes from January 1. Meanwhile, the USDA in its December report estimated 2021/22 global production to drop by 200,000 bales as a 1.0 million bale drop in Pakistan more than offsets gains in Benin, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Cameroon. Also, world cotton ending stocks were projected 1.2 million bales lower due to lower beginning stocks, smaller production and slightly higher consumption. Mali's cotton harvest for the 2021/22 season is expected to be 731,000 tonnes, 10% below an earlier forecast due to insufficient rain in some areas and localised floods elsewhere, data from the cotton producers' association showed. In March, the government forecast that cotton production would rebound this season to 810,000 tonnes after plunging nearly 80% in 2020/21 to 147,200 tonnes because the pandemic upended demand and farmers went on strike. In spot market, Cotton gained by 310 Rupees to end at 32500 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.02% to settled at 6233 while prices up 350 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32980 and below same could see a test of 32640 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33530, a move above could see prices testing 33740.

Trading Idea for the day

Cotton trading range for the day is 32640-33740.

Cotton gained due to production concerns and higher demand for raw cotton for export.

Demand is muted as fabrics manufacturers were hesitant for new purchases due to the proposed hike in taxes from January 1.

The USDA in its December report estimated 2021/22 global production to drop by 200,000 bales

COCUDAKL

Cocudakl yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 2913 amid tight supplies owing to higher input costs with rising global demand. However, upside seen limited as the chances of re-emergence of the Covid through the Omicron variant is said to be having a global impact. The global cotton balance sheets for 2021/22 include higher production and consumption, and slightly lower ending stocks. The projected global consumption is up 700,000 bales. The world production forecast is 1.5 million bales higher as gains for Brazil, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States more than offset a 200,000- bale decline in Greece following unusually heavy October rainfall. World ending stocks are projected at 86.9 million bales, 200,000 bales lower than in October, and 2.4 million bales lower than in 2020/21. The broader-based view for cotton is therefore positive from a pricing perspective, which implies that cotton cake prices shall tend to remain in an upward trend in forthcoming weeks. Dairy prices rose at the global auction, surpassing their March peak to touch a fresh seven-year high, as tight milk supply underpins demand for New Zealand’s biggest export commodity. The Global Dairy Trade price index increased 1.4 per cent at the latest auction, to touch its highest level since March 2014. The index has been on a march higher since August. In Akola spot market, Cocudakl gained by 78.9 Rupees to end at 2933.55 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.27% to settled at 64220 while prices up 24 rupees, now Cocudakl is getting support at 2892 and below same could see a test of 2872 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 2946, a move above could see prices testing 2980.

Trading Idea for the day

Cocudakl trading range for the day is 2872-2980.

Cocudakl gained amid tight supplies owing to higher input costs with rising global demand.

However, upside seen limited as the chances of re-emergence of the Covid through the Omicron variant is said to be having a global impact.

The U.S. cotton 2021/22 supply and demand forecasts are largely unchanged this month, with only a slight increase in production.

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