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Gold 

Gold prices experienced a modest decline of -0.36% to settle at 56,721 per ounce, influenced by a slowdown in the U.S. service sector during September. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the U.S. economy is still navigating the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. He highlighted persistent issues such as healthcare labor shortages and ongoing childcare difficulties without delving into monetary policy or the economic outlook. Surprisingly, U.S. job openings surged in August, reaching 9.61 million, suggesting a tight labor market that could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates in the upcoming month. Furthermore, Citi anticipates that the gold market may hit a bottom in either the third or early fourth quarter, implying a potential recovery or stabilization in gold prices following a period of weakness. From a technical perspective, the gold market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 1.86% to reach 15,990 contracts. Prices declined by -206 rupees. Gold has a support level at 56,605, and a breach of this level could lead to a test of 56,485. On the upside, resistance is expected at 56,930, with a potential price test at 57,135 upon breaking this level.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56485-57135.
* Gold fell as ISM Services PMI meets expectations in September
* Fed's Powell: Economy still working through the impact of the pandemic
* US job openings unexpectedly rise in August

Silver 

Silver prices saw a decline of -0.76%, settling at 66,885, primarily due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, signaling the potential for further tightening of monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials view the increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields as a sign that their efforts to manage the money supply are effective, although they do not currently see it as a cause for concern for the economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed optimism about the economic outlook, citing a short-term decline in inflation and a robust labor market. In September, the U.S. services sector experienced a slowdown, with new orders hitting a nine-month low. However, this decline aligns with expectations for solid economic growth in the third quarter. The shift in spending from goods to services, driven by higher interest rates, has supported service sector demand. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.6 in September from 54.5 in August, while the manufacturing PMI showed signs of improvement. Private businesses in the U.S. hired 89,000 workers in September, the lowest figure since January 2021 and below market expectations of 153,000. From a technical standpoint, the silver market is witnessing renewed selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 8.28% to reach 30,597 contracts. Prices declined by -509 rupees. Silver has support at 66,220, with potential testing of 65,555 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 67,770, with a possible price test at 68,655 upon breaking this level.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 65555-68655.
* Silver dropped amid a surge in U.S. dollar and bond yields
* Fed officials see rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury debt as evidence their tight-money policies are working
* U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she was very optimistic about the outlook for the economy

Crude oil

Crude oil prices took a substantial hit, dropping by -5.16% to settle at $70.64, as announcements from Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend crude output cuts through the end of 2023 couldn't offset concerns about weakening demand due to broader economic challenges. Saudi Arabia pledged to maintain its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day until December, resulting in a production of approximately 9 million bpd for those months. However, they indicated that the cut would be reviewed monthly. This additional cut complements the ongoing cuts by several OPEC+ members, which extend until the end of 2024. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak credited the joint cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia for stabilizing global oil markets. Russia's ban on gasoline and diesel exports also positively impacted its domestic fuel market. On the other hand, Citi has a bearish outlook on oil prices, projecting Brent crude oil to average $82 per barrel in Q4 2023 and $74 per barrel for the entire year 2024. This suggests anticipated downward pressure on oil prices in the near future. From a technical perspective, the crude oil market witnessed a surge in open interest by a substantial 98.42%, totaling 12,469 contracts, while prices experienced a decline of -384 rupees. Crude oil currently finds support at 6,919, with potential testing of 6,773 if this support is breached. Resistance is expected at 7,324, with a potential price test at 7,583 upon breaking this resistance.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6773-7583.
* Crude oil dropped amid demand fears driven by macroeconomic headwinds.
* OPEC+ ministers keep oil output policy steady
* Saudi Arabia said it would continue with its voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 1.91%, settling at 250.3, driven by reduced output, cooler weather forecasts, and increased exports. Despite expectations of warmer-than-usual weather over the next two weeks, which would lower demand for heating and cooling, prices increased. Gas production in the lower 48 U.S. states decreased to 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, down from 102.9 bcfd in September and a record high of 103.1 bcfd in August. Meteorologists anticipate warmer-than-normal conditions in the lower 48 states through October 19. U.S. gas demand, including exports, is projected to remain near 95.1 bcfd in the current and next week. Pipeline exports to Mexico have risen to an average of 7.3 bcfd in October, with expectations of further increases as New Fortress Energy's plant in Altamira ramps up LNG production for export. Gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities remained steady at around 12.6 bcfd in October. From a technical perspective, the market experienced short covering, with open interest dropping by -2.03% to 20,946 contracts. Prices increased by 4.7 rupees. Natural gas has support at 245.4, potentially testing 240.4 if this support is breached. Resistance is expected at 255.1, with a possible price test at 259.8 upon breaking this resistance.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 240.4-259.8.
* Natural gas climbed on lower output and forecasts for cooler weather and rising exports.
* That price increase happened even though the weather was expected to remain warmer than usual over the next two weeks
* Gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states slid to 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October


Copper 

Copper faced a 0.75% decline yesterday, settling at 699.5, primarily due to concerns about economic growth and increasing inventories. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a deficit of 27,000 metric tons in the global copper market this year, but a surplus of 467,000 tons in 2024. The group also anticipates a rise in refined copper usage by 2% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024, driven by manufacturing growth and energy transition efforts. Despite global economic challenges, factors like increased manufacturing, energy transition projects, and new production capacity in various countries should boost copper usage in 2024. World copper production is expected to increase by 3.8% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, led by expansion in Chinese electrolytic capacity and the launch of new smelters/refineries in Indonesia, India, and the United States. Notably, the discount of LME cash copper to the three-month contract remains at $70 a ton, near its 31-year wide level of $77.50, reflecting elevated on-warrant inventory in LME warehouses at 166,475 tons, the highest in two years. From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing fresh selling with a 14.7% increase in open interest, settling at 7879. Prices have fallen by -5.3 rupees. Support levels are observed at 695.5 and 691.3, while resistance is expected at 704.3, with potential testing at 708.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 691.3-708.9.
* Copper prices dropped on growth worries and rising inventories.
* Global copper market to see 27,000 metric ton deficit in 2023, says ICSG
* World refined copper production is forecast to rise by about 3.8% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024, the ICSG said.

Zinc 

Yesterday, zinc faced a 0.83% decrease, settling at 222.15, primarily due to concerns about industrial metal demand driven by a stronger dollar. This decline followed a recent high in zinc prices, which was attributed to expectations of increased zinc supplies and rising stockpiles. Although zinc inventories in LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses had decreased in the second and third quarters, they were still up by 165% year-to-date. Japan's largest zinc smelter, Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd, announced plans to boost refined zinc production by 9.8% in the second half of the 2023/24 fiscal year. Additionally, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) revealed that the global zinc market surplus had narrowed to 17,400 metric tons in July from 75,900 tons the previous month. However, over the first seven months of the year, there remained a substantial surplus of 495,000 metric tons compared to 199,000 tons during the same period last year. In contrast to concerns about demand and supply, the labor market appeared robust with job openings rising significantly to 9.61 million in August 2023, surpassing market expectations and indicating strength despite the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policies. From a technical perspective, the market experienced long liquidation, with a notable 8.05% drop in open interest, settling at 3460. Prices also decreased by 1.85 rupees. Support for zinc is now at 221, with a potential test of 219.6 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 224.3, and a move above that could lead to price testing 226.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 219.6-226.2.
* Zinc dropped as dollar rose on the back of upbeat U.S. job openings data.
* Zinc retreated as the market factored in increasing supplies of the metal used to galvanise steel and mounting stocks
* Combined zinc inventories in LME and warehouses monitored by ShFE fell back in the second and third quarters


Aluminium 

In yesterday's trading session, the price of aluminum experienced a decline of -1.63%, settling at $205.45 per tonne. This drop was in line with the overall trend in base metals, driven by a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which boosted the US dollar and dampened industrial sentiment. However, the downside was limited due to supply concerns in the market. China, as the world's largest aluminum producer, has taken steps to curb the expansion of production capacity, capping it at 45 million tons. This move is aimed at preventing oversupply and reducing energy consumption from outdated infrastructure. Additionally, Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports, the primary commercial ore for aluminum production, posed a risk to global output. Notably, the Shanghai Futures Exchange witnessed a substantial 13% week-on-week reduction in deliverable aluminum stocks during the final week of September, underscoring the impact of these supply-side developments. On the economic front, both the UK and Eurozone manufacturing PMI data remained subdued. The S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 44.3 for September, only slightly higher than August's 39-month low of 43.0. From a technical standpoint, the market saw long liquidation, with a 5.07% decrease in open interest, closing at 3,579 contracts. Prices declined by -3.4 rupees. Key support for aluminum is now at 204.3, with potential testing of the 203 level. On the upside, resistance is expected around 207.7, and a break above that level could push prices to test 209.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203-209.8.
* Aluminium eased as the outlook of a hawkish Fed lifted the US dollar and hampered industrial sentiment.
* China halted the expansion of production capacity beyond the current limit of 45 million tons
* The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 43.4 in September 2023

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy, a significant commodity in the textile industry, recorded a decline of -0.5%, settling at 60,100, primarily due to profit booking activities. Prices had previously surged due to reports of pink bollworm infestations in the cotton belt of Haryana, India, which raised concerns about cotton crop yields.  In the United States, the cotton projections for 2023/24 reveal higher starting stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Unexpectedly large warehouse stocks reported for July 31, 2023, contributed to increased beginning stocks for 2022/23. However, the production forecast for 2023/24 is 860,000 bales lower, with declines most prominent in the Southeast and Southwest regions.  On the global stage, the 2023/24 cotton projections feature reduced beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month's estimates. India is anticipated to produce between 330 lakh to 340 lakh bales (each weighing 170 kg) of cotton in the upcoming 2023-2024 cotton season starting on October 1st, as stated by J. Thulasidharan, President of the Indian Cotton Federation.  The central government has assessed the pre-sowing price forecast for cotton in the 2023-24 season, taking into account expectations of normal rainfall and an increase in crop area. In Rajkot, a key spot market for cotton, prices concluded at 28,864.7 Rupees, reflecting a -0.41% decline. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 112. Cottoncandy currently finds support at 59,940, and if it drops below this level, it may test 59,790. Resistance is expected at 60,300, and a move above this level could push prices to test 60,510.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 59790-60510.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after prices rose as cotton belt of Haryana, is witnessing an attack by pink bollworm.
* India is expected to see production of 330 lakh to 340 lakh bales in 2023-2024 that begins on October 1.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28864.7 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

Turmeric 

Turmeric saw a substantial gain of 1.98%, settling at 14,182, primarily due to concerns about potential yield losses caused by unfavorable October weather conditions. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts drier-than-average weather in October, which could adversely affect the growth of the turmeric crop. This anticipation of weather-related challenges has spurred increased buying activity in the market. Turmeric is experiencing higher demand not only in developed nations but also in emerging markets. Consequently, turmeric exports have surged by an impressive 25%. However, expectations of a 20-25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in regions like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, have emerged as farmers shift their priorities. In terms of exports, turmeric shipments during April to July 2023 increased by 15.05%, reaching 71,616.77 tonnes compared to 62,245.73 tonnes during the same period in 2022. Nevertheless, in July 2023, turmeric exports declined by 24.60% to 13,841.47 tonnes compared to June 2023. However, they still showed an 8.05% increase compared to July 2022. From a technical perspective, the market exhibited short covering, with open interest dropping by -12.28% to settle at 10,505. Turmeric's prices surged by 276 rupees. Presently, the commodity finds support at 13,806, with the potential to test 13,428 if it falls below this level. On the upside, resistance is expected at 14,512, and a move above this level could push prices to test 14,840.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13428-14840.
* Turmeric gains due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's anticipated unfavourable October weather.
* According to IMD, October is projected to be drier than average, which will have an impact on crop growth.
* Support is also evident for improved export opportunities.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13734.25 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.


Jeera
Jeera, recorded a significant gain of 1.21%, settling at 58,350, primarily due to shrinking supplies in the local market. Increased festive demand and limited availability of quality crops have prompted millers to buy on every price dip. However, despite this surge in local demand, Indian jeera remains competitively priced in the global market, which has subdued overseas demand. China, a major buyer of Indian jeera, has reduced its purchases in recent months, impacting overall exports from India. The uncertainty surrounding whether China will purchase Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new crops adds to the market's dynamics. In terms of exports, jeera shipments during April to July 2023 dropped by 7.99%, totaling 61,697.44 tonnes compared to 67,057.16 tonnes during the same period in 2022. In July 2023, around 8,297.79 tonnes of jeera were exported, showing a significant drop of 20.30% compared to June 2023 and a substantial decline of 58.23% compared to July 2022. In Unjha, a major spot market for jeera, prices ended at 59,100.75 Rupees, marking a slight gain of 0.1%. From a technical perspective, the market showed short covering, with open interest dropping by -4.4% to settle at 4,176. Jeera's prices surged by 695 rupees. Currently, the commodity has support at 57,460, with the potential to test 56,560 if it falls below this level. On the upside, resistance is expected at 58,860, and a move above this level could push prices to test 59,360.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 56560-59360.
* Jeera prices gained due to shrinking supplies in the local market.
* Increased festive demand and limited availability of quality crops in the market is prompting miller to buy
* However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 59100.75 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.