MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support near 71,900 and move back towards 73,000 - ICICI Direct
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Bullion Outlook
Metal’s Outlook
* Spot gold is expected to move in a tight range amid bank holiday in US. Recent data indicated softening labor market in US, which would act as the key driver for the bullions to trade higher. Spot gold is expected to hold the support near $2340 and extend its rally towards $2370. The probability of rate cut in September has went up to 74% after yesterdays weak economic numbers. Meanwhile, focus will remain on Friday’s US Non-farm payroll numbers which could give more clues on the timing of first interest rate cut.
* MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold the key support near 71,900 and move back towards 73,000. The bullish cross over of 5 and 10 day EMA with strong momentum (RSI at 55) would help the bulls to take control.
* MCX Silver September is expected to hold the support near 5 day EMA 90,000 and rise towards 92,500. Above 92,500 it would open the doors towards 93,400.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to extend its rebound amid softness in the US dollar and signs of improving demand from the top metal consumer China. Further, hopes of fresh round of stimulus from China’s third Plenum policy meeting later this month would support the metals to hold its gains. Additionally, improved risk appetite amid growing bets of rate cut from the Fed would support the metal to trade higher. Meanwhile, expanding global inventories would keep a check on the upside in the metal.
* MCX Copper July is expected to hold the support near 20 day EMA at 855 and move towards 870. Above 870, it would rally towards 878 mark.
* Aluminum is expected to rise towards 235, as long as it holds above the 5-day EMA at 231.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to find support near the $82 mark and move towards $85 level amid rise in demand over the summer driving season in US. Further, increasing geopolitical tension in the Middle east would hurt global supplies. Additionally, increasing bets of rate cut in Septembers would also provide support to the energy prices. On the contrary, weaker economic numbers from US and China would hurt the demand outlook and check its upside. Further, higher OI concentration at 85 Call strike indicates a stiff resistance, which act as supply zone for price.
* MCX Crude oil July is likely to rise towards 7080, as long as it holds above the 5 day EMA at 6880. Bullish crossover 10 and 20 day EMA would support the trend.
* MCX Natural gas July is likely to face the hurdle near 211 ( 5 DEMA) and move lower towards 200 amid forecast of cooler weather in US.
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