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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 1.38% at 51630 as the dollar index weakened below the 110 mark, a level not seen in almost two weeks, as risk appetite returned to the markets with attention turning to the midterm elections. Data showed U.S. unemployment rate in October rose to 3.7%, inducing optimism that the Fed will shift to less aggressive interest rate hikes and helped gold record its best day since March 2020. This week, investors will keep a close watch on the U.S. inflation print on Thursday, expected to be key in the next Fed rate decision, and midterm elections, which will determine control of the U.S. Congress. Market participants also kept a close tab on any news surrounding COVID-related curbs in top bullion consumer China. The Perth Mint's sales of gold products in October more than doubled from the previous month to their highest on record, while silver sales dipped. Physical gold demand in India eased with jewellers awaiting a dip in domestic prices to stock up for the wedding season following a festival rush, while premiums in China stay elevated due to lack of fresh quotas. Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices, down from last week's premium of $3.5. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.98% to settle at 8118 while prices are up 703 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50929 and below same could see a test of 50228 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52008, a move above could see prices testing 52386.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50228-52386.
* Gold rose as the dollar index weakened below the 110 mark, as risk appetite returned to the markets with attention turning to the midterm elections.
* Market participants also kept a close tab on any news surrounding COVID-related curbs in top bullion consumer China.
* India activity slows post Diwali rush; China demand steady

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.83% at 61959 as dollar dropped after prices dropped as China denied it was considering easing its zero-Covid policy pressuring demand for silver jewellery. Sales of silver jewellery from major consumer China have been under pressure from Covid-related restrictions for over two years and a slowdown in the global economy is reducing the consumption of electronics and automobiles. The dollar rose as investors awaited the outcome of the mid-term elections in the United States. Americans vote today in crucial midterm elections that could decide the political future of both President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. U.S. Treasury yields held steady as focus shifted to the U.S. consumer inflation report, due on Thursday that could shed more clues on the Fed's monetary policy tightening stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States fell to a three-month low of 91.3 in October of 2022, compared to 92.1 in September. Thirty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was the most important issue in operating their business, up three points from September. At the same time, the number of owners who plan to increase employment in the next three months fell to 20% and 50% said they raised average selling prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.57% to settle at 16952 while prices are up 1116 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60788 and below same could see a test of 59617 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62705, a move above could see prices testing 63451.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 59617-63451.
*  Silver gains as dollar dropped after prices dropped as China denied it was considering easing its zero-Covid policy pressuring demand for silver jewellery.
* Sales of silver jewellery from major consumer China have been under pressure from Covid-related restrictions for over two years.
* The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the United States fell to a three-month low of 91.3 in October of 2022

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.66% at 7364 as China reaffirmed its commitment to the zero-Covid policy that has dampened demand in the world’s top crude importer. Markets also continued to grapple with tightening financial conditions and mounting risks of a global recession. Oil climbed in recent weeks on a tightening supply outlook, with OPEC+ slashing output by 2 million barrels a day in November, while the European Union ban on Russian oil is set to take effect in December and will be followed by a halt on oil product imports in February. China's crude oil imports in October rebounded to the highest level since May, up 14% from a low base a year earlier in their first annual growth in five months, data showed, as two greenfield refineries prepared to start operations. The world's largest crude importer brought in 43.14 million tonnes of crude oil last month, equivalent to 10.16 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to November 1, the U.S. CFTC said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 15,117 contracts to 186,450 during the period. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -22.97% to settle at 5803 while prices are down -201 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7303 and below same could see a test of 7243 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7454, a move above could see prices testing 7545.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7243-7545.
* Crude oil dropped as China reaffirmed its commitment to the zero-Covid policy that has dampened demand
* Markets also continued to grapple with tightening financial conditions and mounting risks of a global recession.
* China's Oct crude oil imports rebound amid new refinery rollouts

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -13.1% at 505 on forecasts for the weather to remain mild for the next two weeks, which should allow utilities to keep injecting gas into storage for the winter through at least mid November. That price decline came despite forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a projected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports once Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas returns to service. Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early- to mid-November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to a record 99.37 bcfd in October, topping the prior record of 99.28 bcfd in September. Daily output was on track to drop about 4.5 bcfd to a preliminary five-month low of 95.7 bcfd on Tuesday. That would be the biggest one-day decline since the 2021 February freeze. Traders, however, noted first of the month preliminary output was almost always unreliable and revised higher later in the month. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 101.4 bcfd next week. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 45.76% to settle at 8996 while prices are down -76.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 479.8 and below same could see a test of 454.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 549.2, a move above could see prices testing 593.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 454.7-593.5.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for the weather to remain mild for the next two weeks
* That price decline came despite forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks and a projected increase in LNG exports.
* Freeport LNG expects its 2.1-billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in early- to mid-November

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 677.15 benefiting from the retreat of the US dollar as concerning US economic confidence data strengthened the case for a lower terminal rate by the Federal Reserve. Chinese officials vowed to stick to the zero-Covid policy, erasing hopes that Beijing would start easing restrictions and denting demand expectations for industrial inputs. Still, prices remain well above the $3.5 mark that was consistent through the start of the fourth quarter, supported by stimulus pledges from the PBoC and looming supply concerns. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. China imported 404,414 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper products in October, down 1.5% from a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The country exported 479,278 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products, in October. Chile's Codelco, has proposed a premium of $140 a tonne for 2023 supplies to at least two Chinese customers, a 33.3% increase from this year. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 6.71% to settle at 5473 while prices are up 4.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 672.2 and below same could see a test of 667.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 680.7, a move above could see prices testing 684.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 667.1-684.1.
* Copper gained as dollar dropped as concerning US confidence data strengthened the case for a lower terminal rate by the Federal Reserve.
* China Oct copper imports at 404,414 tonnes
* Chile's Codelco proposes 33% price hike for Chinese copper buyers for 2023

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 265.6 as data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02% or 10,200 mt MoM and up 14,800 mt or 2.96% YoY. From January to October 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 4.93 million mt, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year. Investor hopes of an economy rebound faded after top consumer China reaffirmed its stance on strict zero-COVID policy. Chinese authorities, however, reaffirmed its stance on stringent restrictions to control coronavirus outbreaks, causing metals prices to retreat. Poor economic data from China also dented risk sentiment and appetite for metals. China's trade surplus was at USD 85.2 billion in October 202, little changed from a surplus of USD 84.8 billion in the same month the prior year, missing market forecasts of a surplus of USD 95.95 billion. Exports fell 0.3% yoy, the first drop since May 2020, amid lackluster overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally; while imports shrank at a faster 0.7%, the first decline since August 2020 as domestic demand weakened amid strict COVID curbs. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.75% to settle at 2150 while prices are up 1.3 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 262.8 and below same could see a test of 260 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 267.8, a move above could see prices testing 270.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 260-270.
* Zinc gained as China refined zinc output in October fell
* China sticks to strict pandemic policy
* Poor economic data from China dented risk sentiment and appetite for metals.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.54% at 205.85 as some aluminium plants in Henan were affected by factors such as the advent of the heating season, the low aluminium price and poor profitability, and it is rumoured that they would again cut the production. Following Sichuan and Yunnan, Henan has once again joined the production reduction club. The production reduction of aluminium plants in Henan this time is expected to involve an annual capacity of about 110,000 mt. The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots decreased 41,000 mt from a week ago to 580,000 mt as of November 3 mainly due to fewer arrivals and downstream dip buying. The pandemic in Henan weighed on downstream operating rates. The production and transportation of downstream enterprises will continue to be affected by the pandemic in the short term. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that he was not aware of the media report that said China was preparing a plan to end COVID-19 flight suspensions. According to the real estate data for September, the real estate market continued struggling, which weighed on the downstream demand. The average operating rate across major aluminium processing enterprises declined one percentage point from a week ago to 66.2% as of October 20. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.18% to settle at 5520 while prices are up 1.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 203.5 and below same could see a test of 201 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.8, a move above could see prices testing 209.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201-209.6.
* Aluminium gains as some aluminium smelters in Henan province reduced production.
* China trade surplus below estimates in October
* China forex reserves slightly above forecasts

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.28% at 970.5 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -7.4 Rupees to end at 1118.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.95% to settle at 1058 while prices are down -12.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 965 and below same could see a test of 959.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 979, a move above could see prices testing 987.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 959.5-987.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -7.4 Rupees to end at 1118.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices settled down as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.68% at 7456 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7343.4 Rupees gained 33.95 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 18.14% to settle at 7620 while prices are up 50 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7380 and below same could see a test of 7304 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7572, a move above could see prices testing 7688.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7304-7688.
* Turmeric rose as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7343.4 Rupees gained 33.95 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 25160 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 386.35 Rupees to end at 24866.1 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 26.53% to settle at 4950 while prices are up 100 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24810 and below same could see a test of 24455 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25610, a move above could see prices testing 26055.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24455-26055.
* Jeera prices gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 386.35 Rupees to end at 24866.1 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.16% at 32250 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 400 Rupees to end at 31760 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.02% to settle at 2046 while prices are up 370 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31980 and below same could see a test of 31700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 32460, a move above could see prices testing 32660.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 31700-32660.
* Cotton gained as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks.
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 400 Rupees to end at 31760 Rupees.

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