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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.23% at 56352 as the dollar firmed, although expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would be less aggressive on raising interest rates kept bullion well above the $1,900 per ounce pivot. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a quarter-point interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank at its next meeting in February after data last week showed U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell in December. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said last week the one-year inflation outlook slipped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month – the lowest reading since April 2021. Markets are increasingly expecting a smaller 25-basis-point increase after data showed headline consumer prices fell in December for the first time in 2-1/2 years. China's economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter due to stringent COVID curbs, dragging down 2022 growth to one of its worst in nearly half a century and raising pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.9% in October-December from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed, slower than the third-quarter's 3.9% pace. The rate still exceeded the second quarter's 0.4% expansion and market expectations of a 1.8% gain. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.09% to settle at 11409 while prices are down -130 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 56265 and below same could see a test of 56177 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 56481, a move above could see prices testing 56609.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56177-56609.
* Gold fell as the dollar ticked up, while investors still sought direction from the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike path.
* Fed funds futures are now pricing in a quarter-point interest rate hike by the U.S. central bank at its next meeting in February
* The University of Michigan Surveys said the one-year inflation outlook slipped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month, the lowest reading since April 2021


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 69186 as the dollar edged higher amid expectations that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. Global growth worries resurfaced after China posted its weakest economic growth in nearly half a century. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that global economic growth will bottom out this year. The focus now shifts to the Bank of Japan's policy-setting meeting on Wednesday amid speculation the central bank might call for an exit from its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy on Wednesday. Expectations of the Fed slowing the pace of rate hikes supporting demand for silver as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in the sharp rebound of solar energy equities. On the supply side, shortage concerns drove the commodity to outperform gold and palladium in 2022. COMEX inventories levels saw an aggressive decline in the period, and London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell considerably amid outflows to India. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -32.9 in January of 2023, the lowest reading since May of 2020, from -11.2 in December, and well below market forecasts of -9. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.74% to settle at 19862 while prices are down -600 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68865 and below same could see a test of 68544 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69678, a move above could see prices testing 70170.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68544-70170.
* Silver dropped as the dollar edged higher amid expectations that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle.
* Global growth worries resurfaced after China posted its weakest economic growth in nearly half a century.
* IMF’s Georgieva said that global economic growth will bottom out this year.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.96% at 6517 after China posted weak but expectation-beating annual economic growth data and on hopes that a recent shift in its COVID-19 policy will boost fuel demand. OPEC said Chinese oil demand would rebound this year due to relaxation of the country's COVID-19 curbs and drive global growth, and sounded an optimistic note on the prospects for the world economy in 2023. World demand in 2023 will rise by 2.22 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.2%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, unchanged from last month's forecast, which had ended a series of downgrades. A stronger economy, if it materialises, could lead to upward demand revisions and support oil prices, which have rallied in 2023 on Chinese demand hopes. OPEC sounded an upbeat tone on the world economy's prospects, even though it still expects a relative slowdown from 2022. The report showed that OPEC's production rose in December, even after the OPEC+ alliance comprised of OPEC, Russia and other allies pledged output cuts. For November last year, with prices weakening, OPEC+ agreed to a 2 million bpd reduction in its output target – the largest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.62% to settle at 2791 while prices are up 62 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6438 and below same could see a test of 6359 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6612, a move above could see prices testing 6707.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6359-6707.
* Crude oil prices hit two-week highs on hopes of China demand rebound
* OPEC said Chinese oil demand would rebound this year due to relaxation of the country's COVID-19 curbs and drive global growth
* World demand in 2023 will rise by 2.22 mbpd, or 2.2%, the OPEC said in a monthly report


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 296.8 on growing expectations the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas will remain shut until February or later and on forecasts the weather will turn mild again in February following a late January freeze. Investors poured money back into the commodity amid prospects of a recovery in demand as temperatures should move towards more seasonal levels later this month. Still, any significant rebound is likely unsustainable if unseasonably warm weather sticks and domestic output continues to soar. US natural gas production is expected to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet, the Energy Information Administration said. Adding to the bearish tone, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Traders worry the plant will only be back online during the first or second quarter due to the need for further work to satisfy federal regulators. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell by 2 this week to 150, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.01% to settle at 22476 while prices are down -2.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 289.5 and below same could see a test of 282.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 308.2, a move above could see prices testing 319.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 282.2-319.6.
* Natural gas dropped on growing expectations the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas will remain shut until February or later
* US natural gas production is expected to grow more than 2% this year to a record daily average of 100.3 billion cubic feet
* US natgas rig count fell 2 at 150 – Baker Hughes



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.81% at 771.85 on mine supply worry in Peru amid low inventories of the metal, stimulus hope in China and a weaker dollar. Chinese import premiums are falling and Shanghai exchange inventories are rising. Data showed that China's economy grew 3% last year, one of the weakest annual growth figures in nearly half a century, with factory output growing 1.3% year on year in December. Speculators have flooded into the market, swelling their net long position in COMEX copper futures to its largest since April. Open interest in industrial metals increased by about $18 billion last week for the biggest weekly rise since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Chinese economy expanded 2.9% yoy in Q4 of 2022, easing from a 3.9% growth in Q3 but above market estimates of a 1.8% rise. For the full of 2022, the economy grew by 3.0%, missing the official target of around 5.5% and marking the second-slowest pace since the 1970s, underlining the impact of Beijing's longstanding zero-COVID strategy before it was abruptly scrapped last month. The unemployment rate of the population aged 25-59 declined to 4.8% in December from 5.0% in November, while those aged 16-24 fell to 16.7%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.02% to settle at 4850 while prices are up 6.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 764.3 and below same could see a test of 756.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 776.1, a move above could see prices testing 780.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 756.6-780.2.
* Copper prices gained on mine supply worry in Peru amid low inventories of the metal, stimulus hope in China and a weaker dollar.
* China's dismantling of economically damaging COVID-19 controls raised hopes that demand will revive.
* Chinese import premiums are falling and Shanghai exchange inventories are rising.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.16% at 287.25 as weak economic data from China, punctured a speculator-driven rally. Slowing economic growth in top metal consumer China reminded traders of the reality of weak physical demand and a global economic downtrend. China's economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter due to stringent COVID curbs, dragging down 2022 growth to one of its worst in nearly half a century and raising pressure on policymakers to unveil more stimulus this year. China's factory output grew 1.3% in December from a year earlier, slowing from a 2.2% rise in November, while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, shrank 1.8% last month, extending November's 5.9% drop. The Chinese economy expanded 2.9% yoy in Q4 of 2022, easing from a 3.9% growth in Q3 but above market estimates of a 1.8% rise. For the full of 2022, the economy grew by 3.0%, missing the official target of around 5.5% and marking the second-slowest pace since the 1970s, underlining the impact of Beijing's longstanding zero-COVID strategy before it was abruptly scrapped last month. The industrial capacity utilization rate in China fell to 75.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 77.4 percent in the same period a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.6% to settle at 2013 while prices are up 0.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 285.7 and below same could see a test of 284.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 288.2, a move above could see prices testing 289.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 284.2-289.2.
* Zinc settled flat as weak economic data from China, punctured a speculator-driven rally.
* Slowing economic growth in China reminded traders of the reality of weak physical demand and a global economic downtrend.
* The Chinese economy expanded 2.9% yoy in Q4 of 2022, easing from a 3.9% growth in Q3



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.05% at 221.5 as China's annual aluminium output in 2022 rose 4.5% from the previous year to a record high, official data showed, reaching 40.21 million tonnes with a boost from newly launched capacity and a relaxation of power supply restrictions. Primary aluminium output for December was 3.43 million tonnes, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, up slightly from 3.41 million tonnes in November and 10.3% higher year-on-year. Smelters' profitability also improved in December, with local industry information provider Mysteel estimating a monthly increase of 288 yuan ($42.63) a tonne in smelter profit because of higher spot prices. In general, 2022 brought a ramp-up in production among smelters due to a loosening of electricity use restrictions, coupled with the launch of new capacity, mainly in northern China's Inner Mongolia and in southeastern Guangxi and Yunnan provinces. The Chinese economy unexpectedly showed no growth on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q4 of 2022, compared with market consensus of a 0.8 percent contraction and after a 3.9 percent expansion in Q3. The industrial capacity utilization rate in China fell to 75.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 77.4 percent in the same period a year earlier. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.32% to settle at 4950 while prices are up 0.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 220.4 and below same could see a test of 219.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 222.4, a move above could see prices testing 223.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 219.1-223.1.
* Aluminium settled flat as China's annual aluminium output in 2022 rose 4.5% from the previous year to a record high
* China aluminium production up 10.3 % to 3.43 mln tonnes in Dec
* The industrial capacity utilization rate in China fell to 75.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 77.4 percent in the same period a year earlier


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -2.67% at 1015.3 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -17.1 Rupees to end at 1186.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.65% to settle at 796 while prices are down -27.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1003.4 and below same could see a test of 991.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1036.5, a move above could see prices testing 1057.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 991.5-1057.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -17.1 Rupees to end at 1186.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.83% at 7916 on low level buying after prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand. Turmeric production in the 2021-22 crop year (June-July) has been projected at 13.31 lakh tonnes against 11.24 lakh tonnes the previous year with the area increasing to 3.5 lakh hectares from 2.93 lakh hectares. In the first advance estimate, the crop was pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7425.9 Rupees gained 68.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.78% to settle at 13140 while prices are up 142 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7818 and below same could see a test of 7720 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7976, a move above could see prices testing 8036.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7720-8036.
* Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices dropped on an “unexpected” slump in domestic and export demand.
* Turmeric production in 2023 has been projected at 5.13 Lakh Mt against 4.67 Lakh Mt the previous year
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7425.9 Rupees gained 68.45 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -2.44% at 34990 on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -499.35 Rupees to end at 34544.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.96% to settle at 5547 while prices are down -875 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 34530 and below same could see a test of 34065 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35530, a move above could see prices testing 36065.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 34065-36065.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,830.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -499.35 Rupees to end at 34544.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

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