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Gold

Gold settled unchanged at $59,393, finding support in a slight pullback of the U.S. dollar. Market participants grew more confident that the Federal Reserve may have concluded its interest rate hikes. Traders are betting that the Fed is done raising rates, especially after an increase in the U.S. unemployment rate and moderate wage growth suggested easing labor market conditions. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index for August improved to 47.6%, up from July's 46.4%. However, the latest U.S. jobs report revealed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, the highest since February 2022, although the economy added 187,000 jobs, exceeding expectations but following a downward revision of 110,000 jobs in the prior two months. Premiums on physical gold in China decreased as safe-haven buying slowed amid hopes of economic stimulus. Chinese dealers were selling gold at premiums ranging from $20 to $38 an ounce over global spot prices, down from $40 to $60 seen the previous week. In India, a nearly 2% rise in local gold prices over a fortnight deterred buyers, leading dealers to offer discounts of about $4 an ounce over official domestic prices. From a technical perspective, the gold market is experiencing long liquidation. Open interest dropped by -0.25% to 12,056. Gold finds support at $59,285, with the possibility of testing $59,185 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at $59,530, and prices may test $59,675 if this resistance level is surpassed.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 59185-59675.

* Gold steadied buoyed by a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar

* Markets see 93% chance of Fed holding rates at Sept. meet

* Premiums on physical gold in China eased off recent highs as safe-haven buying cooled

Silver

Silver prices closed down by -0.76% at 74,521 following the release of the August jobs report in the United States. Despite showing more job additions than expected, the report also revealed an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.8%, along with moderate wage growth. This suggests a possible easing in labor market conditions, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. The Labor Department reported an increase of 187,000 jobs in August, with the July data revised downward to 157,000 jobs added. U.S. manufacturing, although still in contraction for the tenth consecutive month, showed signs of a slower decline, possibly stabilizing at lower levels. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 in August from 46.4 in July. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 93% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its Sept. 19-20 meeting and see only a 37% chance of a hike in November, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. From a technical standpoint, the silver market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -1.75% to 14,178, while prices declined by -568 rupees. Support for silver is currently at 74,200, with the potential for a test of 73,875 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 75,065, and prices may test 75,605 upon surpassing this level.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 73875-75605.

* Silver dropped after mixed us jobs report

* The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in August, but a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.8%

* U.S. manufacturing contracted for a 10th straight month in August, but the pace of decline continued to slow

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled up by 0.64% at 7,109, driven by expectations that OPEC+ leaders would extend measures to keep oil supplies tight. Russia and OPEC partners, including Saudi Arabia, are aligning on export cuts to support prices. Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day output cut into October. On the demand side, a surprising expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity raised optimism about the world's largest oil importer's economic health. Signs of a cooling U.S. economy led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might halt rate hikes, boosting market sentiment. However, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency are depending on China to shore up global oil demand in 2023. Concerns arise from China's sluggish economic recovery. In the U.S., crude oil inventories fell sharply by 10.6 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts for a 3.3 million barrel draw. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by -4.67% to 10,949 while prices increased by 45 rupees. Crude oil has support at 7,066, with the potential to test 7,024 if this level is breached. Resistance is likely at 7,135, and a move above could lead to testing 7,162.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7024-7162.

* Crude oil gains on expectations of OPEC+ extending supply controls.

* Russia’s Novak said that Russia agreed with its OPEC partners on the parameters for continued export cuts.

* Saudi Arabia is also expected to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day output cut into October.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined significantly by -3.96% to 220.7 due to a larger-than-expected increase in gas storage last week and expectations of reduced demand in the coming weeks. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that gas storage increased by 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending August 25. However, it's worth noting that daily gas output has dropped by 2.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to a preliminary four-month low of 99.2 bcfd. This drop in production has provided some support to prices. Meteorologists predict that hot weather will persist in the lower 48 U.S. states until at least September 16. Although cooler weather is reducing short-term gas consumption, the overall outlook remains hot until mid-September. U.S. spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark reached a three-year low in August. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 40.49% to 37,852 while prices dropped by -9.1 rupees. Natural gas has support at 217.8, with the potential to test 214.8 if this level is breached. Resistance is now likely at 225.9, and a move above could lead to testing 231.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 214.8-231.

* Natural gas dropped due to a larger-than-expected increase in gas storage

* EIA said utilities added 32 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 25.

* Meteorologists forecast that weather in the lower 48 U.S. states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 16.

Copper

Copper prices experienced a decline of -0.45% to settle at 736.6, largely influenced by data showing an increase in copper inventory across major Chinese markets. Inventories stood at 88,600 metric tons, representing an 11,200 metric ton increase from the previous Monday and a 14,400 metric ton increase from two Fridays ago. This uptick in inventory follows a period of low levels. The rise in inventory in eastern China was primarily attributed to a significant increase in imported copper. Meanwhile, in Guangdong, inventory saw a slight increase due to additional shipments from smelters in the region at the end of August. Chile's total copper production also saw a 1.7% year-on-year increase in July, reaching 430,900 metric tons. This growth was fueled by a 5.71% increase in production at the Collahuasi mine to 50,000 tons. However, State-owned Codelco reported a 2.6% dip in copper output during the same period, down to 124,700 tons. Moreover, a recent private-sector survey surprisingly indicated that China's factory activity returned to an expansion mode in August. Overall, global copper demand is expected to be boosted by the electric vehicle market and the rapidly growing Indian economy. From a technical perspective, the market is currently witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing by 8.04% to 5,347 while prices declined by -3.35 rupees. Key support for copper is at 732.5, with the potential to test 728.5 if this level is breached. Resistance is likely at 742, and a move above could lead to testing 747.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 728.5-747.5.

* Copper dropped as copper inventory across major Chinese markets up 11,200 mt.

* Chile's copper production up 1.7% in July

* Global demand for copper will be aided by the electric vehicle market and a fast-growing India economy.

Zinc

Zinc prices witnessed a decline of -0.23%, settling at 220.3, primarily driven by concerns related to poor economic data from China, which continues to exert downward pressure on demand prospects. The People's Bank of China and the country's financial regulator issued notices aimed at easing borrowing rules to assist homebuyers. Additionally, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) revealed that the global zinc market surplus expanded to 76,000 metric tons in June, up from 67,000 tons in the previous month. Over the first half of the year, the global surplus amounted to 370,000 metric tons, in contrast to a surplus of 241,000 tons during the same period last year. In a surprising turn of events, China's factory activity returned to expansion in August, according to a private-sector survey. Improvements were noted in supply, domestic demand, and employment, signaling that official efforts to stimulate growth may be starting to take effect. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) increased to 51.0 in August, surpassing expectations and marking the highest reading since February.  From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -1.5% to 4,400 while prices fell by -0.5 rupees. Zinc is currently finding support at 219.4, with the potential for a test of 218.5 if this level is breached. Resistance is likely to be encountered at 221.2, and surpassing this could lead to testing 222.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 218.5-222.1.

* Zinc dropped as poor economic data from China continued to pressure. 

* China's central bank and financial regulator issued notices to ease some borrowing rules to aid homebuyers

* Global zinc market surplus rises in June to 76,000 tons – ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium prices experienced a decline of -1.06%, settling at 201.3, largely attributed to China's Yunnan province resuming energy-intensive aluminium production following the conclusion of power restrictions. Data from the London Metal Exchange (LME) revealed an increase in cancelled warehouse receipts for LME aluminum compared to the previous month, totaling 281,050 tons with a cancellation rate of 55.50%. Meanwhile, registered warehouse receipts witnessed a recent decline and currently stand at 225,350 tons. Late August saw a significant rise in LME aluminum inventory, followed by a subsequent downward trend. The overall operation of registered warehouse receipts remains at low levels, with limited changes, and the cancellation rate continues to hover near its peak. On the macroeconomic front, favorable domestic policies have had a substantial impact on markets. However, uncertainty stemming from speculation about a potential Federal Reserve rate hike has introduced macroeconomic instability. Fundamentally, the proportion of molten aluminum output has remained high, and persistently low levels of aluminum ingot inventory have provided support to aluminum prices. From a technical perspective, fresh selling pressure has emerged in the market, accompanied by a 6.07% increase in open interest, which settled at 3,948 contracts. Aluminium is currently finding support at 200.3, with the possibility of testing 199.2 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 202.7, and surpassing this level could lead to testing 204.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 199.2-204.

* Aluminium down as Yunnan boosts energy-intensive production post power curbs

* Data shows that the cancelled warehouse receipts of LME aluminum have increased compared to last month

* Domestic favorable policies wield boosting effects on markets significantly.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy recorded a modest increase of 0.16%, settling at 61,500, primarily due to a decline in sowing in India, which dropped by 2.11% to 122.99 lakh hectares from 125.64 lakh hectares in 2022. This reduction in sowing has contributed to a tightening of supplies in the domestic market. Reports of lower acreages and the firmness in ICE cotton prices are further supporting market sentiment. Concerns have arisen due to extended dry conditions in Gujarat, leading to worries about yield losses that could drive cotton prices up in the near term. Cotton arrivals during the current season, which began in October last year, have crossed 318 lakh bales, according to data from the Cotton Corporation of India. Arrivals in Punjab have been notably lower, with only around one-third of the previous year's volume. This is reflected in the arrival of cotton in Punjab for the 2022-23 marketing season, which has been recorded at 8.7 lakh quintals to date, compared to 28.89 lakh quintals for the entire 2021-22 season. India is experiencing its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with El Niño weather conditions expected to reduce September precipitation. From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing fresh buying interest, with a 1.19% increase in open interest, settling at 85 contracts, accompanied by a price increase of 100 rupees. Cottoncandy is currently finding support at 61,220, with the potential for testing 60,930 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 61,900, and surpassing it could lead to testing 62,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60930-62290.

* Cotton rose as sowing in India dropped by 2.11% to 122.99 lakh hectares

* In Gujarat, Cotton sowing grows by nearly 5% with 2,679,346.00 hectares 

* Reports of lower acreages and firmness in ICE cotton prices will also support market sentiments up.

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 29715.2 Rupees gained by 0.23 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric experienced a modest 0.19% increase, closing at 15114, driven by rising demand associated with the upcoming festive season. This seasonal demand is typical and has been a supportive factor for prices. Limited availability of quality turmeric crops and a bleak production outlook for the upcoming season are also contributing to price firmness. However, significant price gains are constrained by forecasts of substantial rainfall in September. The revival of the Southwest Monsoon in September is expected to bring rain to central and southern India, which could positively impact turmeric crop prospects. Export inquiries have remained subdued at current price levels, exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, a shift in farmers' focus is anticipated to lead to a 20-25% decrease in turmeric sowing this year, particularly in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Despite these factors, turmeric exports during Apr-Jun 2023 increased by 16.87% to 57,775.30 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. From a technical perspective, the turmeric market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with a 2.06% increase in open interest, settling at 15600. This rise in open interest corresponds with a price increase of 28 rupees. Key technical levels guide potential price movements. Support is found at 14770, with the possibility of testing 14426 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 15518, with prices potentially reaching 15922 upon surpassing this level.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14384-15752.

* Turmeric gained supported by emerging festive demand .

* Limited availability of quality crop and bleak production outlook for upcoming season is likely to support firmness in prices.

* Gains in turmeric is likely to be limited in wake of forecast of good rainfall in September.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14142.75 Rupees dropped by -0.74 percent.

Jeera

Jeera (cumin) surged by an impressive 5.15%, closing at 60620, driven by increased buying activities, particularly from stockists. This uptick in demand is attributed to rising festive season requirements. Dry inventory levels with millers have prompted them to purchase jeera whenever prices dip. However, the jeera market is grappling with sluggish export inquiries, especially from China, which has been a significant buyer of Indian jeera but has reduced its purchases recently. The uncertainty surrounding China's potential cumin purchases in October-November, just before the arrival of new cumin crops, adds complexity to market dynamics. Additionally, the likelihood of drier weather in Gujarat is expected to lead to increased arrivals, which could limit upward price movements. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is projected to exceed supply, with demand expected to reach 85 lakh bags this year against a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-Jun 2023 showed a positive trend, increasing by 13.16% to 53,399.65 tonnes compared to the same period in 2022. From a technical standpoint, the jeera market is currently under short covering, with open interest decreasing by -3.47% to 5,421. Despite this, prices surged by 2970 rupees. Support is found at 59280, with the possibility of testing 57940 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 61480, and prices may test 62340 upon surpassing this level.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 57940-62340.

* Jeera gains on increased buying as Stockists are showing interest in wake of rising festive demand.

* Bleak export enquires are still a concern for exporters as demand from China has dropped in recent weeks

* Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 60829.65 Rupees gained by 0.9 percent.

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