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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to find support near the $1930 level and move towards the $1950 amid expectation of weaker US job numbers. The US non-farm payroll numbers are set to add 170k jobs in August, making the slowest pace since February 2021. The weaker set of economic numbers could force the Fed to remain less hawkish than anticipated. The CME Fed-Watch tool suggests more than 88% probability of no hike in rates in September and the probability of hike in Novembers dropped to 37.5% from 41%

• MCX Gold futures is expected to find support near the 50 day EMA at 59100 and rise back towards 59700.

• MCX Silver December is expected to hold the support near 75000 and rise towards 76500. Only close below 75000 ,it would correct towards 74400.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to move higher towards 740 level amid better demand prospects as China stepped up efforts to support its housing sector. China’s central bank and financial regulators issued notices to ease borrowing rules to aid homebuyers. Additionally, Caixin manufacturing pmi data showed activity in sector grew unexpectedly in August.

• MCX Copper is likely to rise towards the 740 level as long as it trades above 731 . Only a move below 731 would weaken it towards 726.

• MCX aluminium is likely to hold the support near 200 and trade with in the range of 200-203 amid strong demand and depleting inventory levels in SHFE.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to hold its gains above the $82 mark and move towards $84.80 mark amid tighter than anticipated crude supplies. Further, expectation of extension in the production cuts by the OPEC+ group through the year 2023 would also support its gains. However, weaker economic numbers from China and expectation of rise in supplies from Iran could restrict the NYMEX oil to go beyond the $85 mark

• MCX Crude oil is likely to rise towards 6980, as long as it trades above 6750. Only close below 6750, it would correct towards 6650

• MCX Natural gas prices are is expected to face the hurdle near 240 and weaken towards 225 amid higher inventory levels in US. However, forecast of above normal temperature in some parts of US could restrict its downside.

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