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Below are Views on Weekly Oulook - Gold, Silver ,Crude Oil & USDINR By Mr. Anuj Gupta, Vice President, IIFL Securities

Last week we Gold tested the new lifetime high of 58847 levels and in the international market it tested the 10 month high level of $1959.75 per ounce levels. MCX Silver has also tested the 11 month high levels of 71932 levels and in the international market it tested the 10 month high of 24.62 levels per ounce.

In the last trading session of the week we have seen that gold and silver prices corrected from the higher levels due to strength in the dollar after US Job report data. MCX Gold corrected by -1.26% and closed at 56552 levels and the international market corrected by 0.70% and closed at $1864 levels. MCX Silver corrected by 1.03% and closed at 67625 levels and in the international market it corrected by 1.39% and closed at $23.58 levels.

For the next week Gold may find support at ($1840) 56000 levels and then ($1810) 55500 levels, while resistance may face at ($1900) 57000 levels and then ($1940) 57500 levels. Silver prices may find support at 66500 ($22.00) and then 65000 ($21.60)levels while it can face resistance at 68500 ($22.80) and then 70000 ($23.50) levels.

The Federal reserve decision also hiked interest rate by 0.25% and their less hawkish instance is positive for gold. We are expecting that gold and silver may show strength in the coming week and may trade higher. Gold may test $1900 to $1920 (57000) levels and silver may test $22.80 to $23 levels (69000) very soon.

Crude Oil

Last week Brent crude oil prices corrected by 7.39% and closed at $79.52 levels and on MCX it corrected by 6.04% and closed at 6112 levels. This correction was due to the strong US Job numbers and as investors sought more clarity on the imminent EU embargo on Russian refined products. EU diplomats said the price caps are $100 per barrel on products that trade at a premium to crude, principally diesel, and $45 per barrel for products that trade at a discount, such as fuel oil and naphtha.

For the next week are expecting that it may trade with negative bias and test lower levels. Technically Crude oil has a strong support at 6000 ($77) while resistance at 
6400 ($82) levels.
As per the current trend it may trade negative and it may test $75 to $73 levels very soon.

USDINR

Last week the dollar was trading higher and closed 0.41% higher at 81.86 levels. Strength in the dollar after positive US data and demand of the dollar put pressure on all currencies.

India’s forex reserves jumped to an over six months high in the reporting week ending on January 27 to $576.76 billion. According to the Weekly Statistical Supplement released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on February 3 showed that forex reserves rose by $3.03 billion to $576.76 billion during the week ending January 27.  

For the next week we are expecting that the rupee may depreciate and may test 82.00 to 82.30 levels. It has a strong support at 81.40 levels and then 81.00 levels while resistance at 82.40 levels and then 82.80 levels.

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