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Daily comments as on Wednesday, July 7, 2021
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.81% at 47684 as U.S. bond yields held near a two-week low, with investors watching for the Federal Reserve's minutes from its last policy meeting to gauge the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Gold regained some footing after data showed U.S. companies in June hired the most workers in 10 months but the unemployment rate ticked higher. On investors’ radar this week are minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting due to be published on Wednesday, which could shed more light on policymakers’ views on inflation and monetary policy. Data showed U.S. job growth accelerated in June as non-farm payrolls increased by 850,000 jobs after rising by 583,000 in May, although the unemployment rate rose to 5.9% from 5.8% the previous month. The data follows suggestions from U.S. Federal Reserve officials that the central bank should begin to taper its asset purchases this year. Also on investor’s radar was the highly contagious Delta variant which prompted some countries in Asia and Europe to walk back on reopening plans. Gold in India was being sold at a premium for the first time in more than two months as demand gained traction after curbs to combat the second wave of the coronavirus were slightly relaxed. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.47% to settled at 10281 while prices up 385 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47356 and below same could see a test of 47028 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48006, a move above could see prices testing 48328.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47028-48328.
* Gold prices bounced as U.S. bond yields held near a two-week low, with investors watching for the Federal Reserve's minutes from its last policy meeting
* U.S. 10-year Treasury yield drops to lowest since June 21
* Data showed U.S. companies in June hired the most workers in 10 months, but unemployment ticked higher.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 69512 on profit booking after prices gained earlier in the day as Treasury yields fell to 4-month lows and the dollar hovered below 12-week highs after the jobs report showed a robust job gain. A mixed U.S. jobs report helped ease investor concerns over an earlier-than-expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Data showed U.S. companies hired the most workers in 10 months in June. However, unemployment ticked higher, the labor force participation remained unchanged and the pace of hourly earnings growth slowed, helping ease fears about the timing of U.S. interest rate hikes. Investors may get a deeper glimpse at the Fed's views on inflation when the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. Investors also reacted to the data from the Labor Department that showed a bigger than expected increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls in the month of June. The U.S. Labor Department's report showed a continued reacceleration in the pace of U.S. job growth in the month of June. The report showed non-farm payroll employment spiked by 850,000 jobs in June after surging by an upwardly revised 583,000 jobs in May. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 5.9% in June from 5.8% in May. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.4% to settled at 10170 while prices down -527 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68866 and below same could see a test of 68220 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70559, a move above could see prices testing 71606.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68220-71606.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices gained earlier in the day as Treasury yields fell to 4-month lows and the dollar hovered below 12-week highs
* Data showed U.S. companies hired the most workers in 10 months in June.
* Investors also reacted to the data from the Labor Department that showed a bigger than expected increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls in the month of June.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.34% at 5497 driven by profit-taking in response to multi-year highs reached after OPEC+ producers clashed over plans to raise supply to meet rising global demand. OPEC+ ministers called off oil output talks after clashing last week when the United Arab Emirates rejected a proposed eight-month extension to output curbs, meaning no deal to boost production has been agreed. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman had called for “compromise and rationality” to secure a deal after two days of failed discussions last week. But four OPEC+ sources said there had been no progress. OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in a statement the meeting had been cancelled, without a date for the next one being agreed. The Biden administration is pushing for a “compromise solution” in stalled OPEC+ oil output talks, a White House spokesperson said. OPEC+ ministers called off those talks after the United Arab Emirates rejected a proposed eight-month extension to curbs on output. Four OPEC+ sources told there has been no progress toward a deal. “The United States is closely monitoring the OPEC+ negotiations and their impact on the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic,” the White House spokesperson said in a statement. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -50.89% to settled at 5457 while prices down -190 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5395 and below same could see a test of 5292 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5667, a move above could see prices testing 5836.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5292-5836.
* Crude oil dropped driven by profit-taking in response to multi-year highs reached after OPEC+ producers clashed over plans to raise supply to meet rising global demand.
* Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman had called for “compromise and rationality” to secure a deal
* OPEC+ ministers called off oil output talks after clashing last week when the United Arab Emirates rejected a proposed eight-month extension to output curbs

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.88% at 273.1 as forecasts pointed to milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Forecast show a broader area of normal to below normal temperatures, especially in the gas consuming areas, weighing on the market. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 90.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July due mostly to the pipeline problems in West Virginia. That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slip from 93.3 bcfd this week to 89.3 bcfd this week as milder weather cuts air conditioning use, before rising to 93 bcfd in the following week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants averaged 11 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below the record 11.5 bcfd in April. With European and Asian gas both trading over $12 per mmBtu, analysts said LNG exports from the United States would remain high. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands, the European gas benchmark, was near its highest since October 2008. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -22.15% to settled at 15433 while prices down -8.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 267.8 and below same could see a test of 262.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 280.8, a move above could see prices testing 288.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 262.5-288.5.
* Natural gas retreated as forecasts pointed to milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Forecast show a broader area of normal to below normal temperatures, especially in the gas consuming areas, weighing on the market
* As for storage, the Energy Information Administration reported a 55 Bcf injection into inventories for the week ending June 11.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.48% at 720.15 as pressure after China's state metals reserves auctioned off in double quick time. The first round of China's much-anticipated state metal reserves auctions needed only one of two days allotted for all the copper and aluminium on offer to be sold. In a rare move aimed at cooling a rally in metal prices that has pushed up raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers, the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said last month it would sell 50,000 tonnes of aluminium, 30,000 tonnes of zinc and 20,000 tonnes of copper on July 5-6. Meanwhile, an acceleration in U.S. hiring boosted hopes of stronger demand for metals and a sustained recovery in the world's biggest economy. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting due out on Wednesday might determine the near-term direction of the dollar as investors look for insight into the thinking behind last month's hawkish shift in which Fed members projected a start to rate hikes in 2023. Global copper smelting activity slipped in June after a rebound a month earlier as Chinese plants closed for maintenance, data from satellite surveillance of copper plants showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.05% to settled at 4193 while prices down -10.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 710.8 and below same could see a test of 701.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 735.8, a move above could see prices testing 751.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 701.3-751.3.
* Copper prices dropped as pressure after China's state metals reserves auctioned off in double quick time.
* Meanwhile, an acceleration in U.S. hiring boosted hopes of stronger demand for metals and a sustained recovery in economy.
* Global copper smelting eases in June

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 238.05 after China’s latest attempt to cool down the price of the galvanizing metal by auctioning off inventory. The Chinese government sold its 30,000 tonnes of zinc ingots reserve at the first-ever public tender of metals on Monday and Tuesday this week. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 2,900 mt from last Friday July 2 to 115,800 mt as of Monday July 5. The stocks were down 700 mt from June 28. Stocks in Shanghai increased slightly as the inflow of imported zinc was limited, and the downstream purchased for rigid demand. In south China's Guangdong, market arrivals continued to improve and downstream demand weakened, which led to a rebound in stocks. Stocks in Tianjin rose sharply as downstream demand was still weak and smelters delivered goods normally. US Fed and ECB did not make many statements, and the market direction is unclear without much economic data. Due to the mixed employment data in the US last week, investors' worries about faster policy tightening were alleviated. The U.S. trade deficit increased in May as efforts by business to rebuild inventories amid booming demand pulled in imports. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.3% to settled at 1647 while prices down -0.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 235.8 and below same could see a test of 233.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 240.9, a move above could see prices testing 243.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 233.5-243.7.
* Zinc prices dropped after China’s latest attempt to cool down the price of the galvanizing metal by auctioning off inventory.
* The Chinese government sold its 30,000 tonnes of zinc ingots reserve at the first-ever public tender of metals on Monday and Tuesday this week.
* US Fed and ECB did not make many statements, and the market direction is unclear without much economic data.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -1.6% at 1353.6 tracking weakness in other base metals prices after China’s latest attempt to cool down the price by auctioning off inventory. U.S. services industry activity grew at a moderate pace in June, likely restrained by labor and raw material shortages, resulting in unfinished work continuing to pile up. The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing activity index fell to 60.1 last month from 64.0 in May, which was the highest reading in the series’ history. The economy has been hit by shortages of labor and raw materials as it reopens after more than a year of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 150 million people are fully immunized against the coronavirus, resulting in the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions on businesses and mask mandates, helping demand to revert back to services from goods. The Fed has suggested that it will decide the policy direction based on economic recovery. In this scenario, investors bet on the Dollar rising due to upbeat non-farm payrolls last week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.08% to settled at 2192 while prices down -22 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1337.8 and below same could see a test of 1321.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1380.1, a move above could see prices testing 1406.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1321.9-1406.5.
* Nickel prices dropped tracking weakness in other base metals prices after China’s latest attempt to cool down the price by auctioning off inventory.
* U.S. services industry activity grew at a moderate pace in June
* The Fed has suggested that it will decide the policy direction based on economic recovery.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 199.7 as the release of national reserves to cool down the price weighed on prices. However downside seen limited as Russia decided to impose additional tariffs on aluminium products. Social inventory is expected to extend slight increase due to the off-season and inflows of SRB aluminium ingots into downstream producers. Concerns of tighter liquidity overseas have faded, but may reappear if US non-farm payrolls and European and US PMI data exceed expectations. ShFE aluminium inventories in ShFE warehouses fell to 278,383 tonnes, their lowest since Feb. 10. Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas increased 2,000 mt on the week to 876,000 mt as of July 1. The stocks kept falling in Wuxi and Hainan, while the inventories in the regions of South China Sea rose from the previous week due to the higher arrivals and lower outbound volume. The outbound volume of the aluminium billet rose by 12,800 mt to 51,100 mt last week, an increase of 33.5%. The stocks of aluminium billet in five major consumption increased by 1,400 mt to 111,200 mt from the previous week, an increase of 14.35%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.82% to settled at 2864 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 198.4 and below same could see a test of 197 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 201.4, a move above could see prices testing 203.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197-203.
* Aluminium prices dropped as the release of national reserves to cool down the price weighed on prices.
* However downside seen limited as Russia decided to impose additional tariffs on aluminium products.
* Social inventory is expected to extend slight increase due to the off-season and inflows of SRB aluminium ingots into downstream producers.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.71% at 1007.1 as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -14.9 Rupees to end at 1097.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.06% to settled at 857 while prices down -7.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 995.4 and below same could see a test of 983.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1017.4, a move above could see prices testing 1027.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 983.7-1027.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -14.9 Rupees to end at 1097.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather.
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 7550 on profit booking after prices seen supported as the area is expected to decline amid less rain and overseas prices fueled by supply worries in the US. The sowing cost of the farmer has increased, due to which the farmer is worried about not getting the proper price for the crop, due to limited stock and slow sowing due to delayed rains, soybean prices will be supported. The USDA said U.S. farmers planted soy on 87.555 million acres, below expectations for 88.955 million. In a quarterly stocks report, USDA said domestic soybean stocks as of June 1 came in at a six-year low of 767 million bushels. Support also seen as slow monsoon progress and lesser availability of certified soyabean seeds may impact kharif sowing of the oilseed in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, top two producers of the crop in the country. “There is lesser availability of certified seeds this year,” D N Pathak, executive director of leading trade body Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA), told. “The soyabean crop last year was damaged due to excessive rains, high temperature and pest attack, for which the quality of seeds with the farmers maybe not so good.” At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -65 Rupees to 7569 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.5% to settled at 19140 while prices down -21 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7456 and below same could see a test of 7361 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7673, a move above could see prices testing 7795.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7361-7795.
* Soyabean dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as the area is expected to decline amid less rain
* The USDA said U.S. farmers planted soy on 87.555 million acres, below analysts' expectations for 88.955 million.
* CME raises soybean futures maintenance margins by 11.1% to $5,000 per contract from $4,500 for July 2021
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -65 Rupees to 7569 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -2.86% at 1272.7 on profit booking after prices gained as concerns over tightening edible oil supply underpinned prices. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period. India has put on hold a proposal to reduce import taxes on edible oils as cooking oil prices started to fall in the world market after hitting record highs, two government and one industry officials told. India slashed the base import prices of palm oil and soybean oil for a fortnight, the government said in a statement, as prices of the cooking oils fell sharply in the global market. Imports would remain elevated even in June as many states are easing lockdowns and allowing restaurants to reopen. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1316.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.9% to settled at 18200 while prices down -37.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1257 and below same could see a test of 1240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1304, a move above could see prices testing 1334.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1240-1334.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices gained as concerns over tightening edible oil supply underpinned prices.
* India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.
* India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1316.75 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -2.79% at 1003.3 as export demand from top buyer India eased during the day and expectations of an increasing stockpile weighed on sentiment. India's demand for Malaysian crude palm oil and Indonesian palm olein has been strong, but it is likely to subside at current price levels and the market will reverse very quickly. Indian buyers have contracted up to 70,000 tonnes of refined bleached deodorized palm oil, mostly from Indonesia, to be shipped in July and August. Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of June likely hit a nine-month high as production jumped, although a rebound in exports kept supply tight. India declared that the import of refined palm oil is amended from 'Restricted' to 'Free', allowing imports of the product for six months. India allowed imports of refined bleached deodorized palm oil for six months, the government said in a statement. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. The country cut the import tax on refined palm oil to 41.25% from 49.5% for three months to bring down local edible oil prices. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -0.8 Rupees to end at 1045.2 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.1% to settled at 4857 while prices down -28.8 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 983.7 and below same could see a test of 964 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1035.8, a move above could see prices testing 1068.2.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 964-1068.2.
* Crude palm oil dropped as export demand from top buyer India eased during the day and expectations of an increasing stockpile weighed on sentiment.
* India declared that the import of refined palm oil is amended from 'Restricted' to 'Free', allowing imports of the product for six months.
* Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of June likely hit a nine-month high as production jumped
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -0.8 Rupees to end at 1045.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 7120 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. However downside seen limited as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 164 Rupees to end at 7376.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.09% to settled at 34630 while prices down -64 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7065 and below same could see a test of 7009 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7216, a move above could see prices testing 7311.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7009-7311.
* Mustard seed dropped as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.
* However downside seen limited as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 164 Rupees to end at 7376.5 Rupees per 100 kg.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 7298 as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. . The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7325 Rupees dropped -15 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.61% to settled at 5890 while prices down -26 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7262 and below same could see a test of 7226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7358, a move above could see prices testing 7418.
Trading Ideas:
*Turmeric trading range for the day is 7226-7418.
* Turmeric prices dropped as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market
* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7325 Rupees dropped -15 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 13175 amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions. In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -20 Rupees to end at 13580 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.99% to settled at 4185 while prices down -10 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13140 and below same could see a test of 13105 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13220, a move above could see prices testing 13265.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13105-13265.
* Jeera settled flat amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -20 Rupees to end at 13580 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 25120 as the cotton crop in Bathinda and Mansa districts of Punjab has been infected with a pest called pink bollworm for the second consecutive year. CAI demand for withdrawal of 10 per cent customs duty on cotton imports. Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has expressed concerns of India losing its competitiveness to China, Pakistan and Bangladesh in the international market. With 10 per cent customs duty on cotton varieties including extra-long staple (ELS), the export-oriented garments and cotton-madeups become costlier thereby giving an edge to the close competitors. The 10 per cent customs duty was imposed on cotton imports on February 2, 2021. The CAI has written a letter to the Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman seeking the withdrawal of duty. In the letter, Atul Ganatra, President, CAI, said that India produced merely 5-6 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) of ELS variety of cotton as against the local requirement of about 12 to 15 lakh bales of ELS and about 5-7 lakh bales of non ELS contamination-free sustainable cotton. The daily arrivals have stopped, as farmers and stockists have less stock. In spot market, Cotton gained by 160 Rupees to end at 25040 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.92% to settled at 6450 while prices up 190 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 24860 and below same could see a test of 24610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25350, a move above could see prices testing 25590.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 24610-25590.
* Cotton remained supported as the cotton crop in Punjab has been infected with a pest called pink bollworm for the second consecutive year.
* CAI demand for withdrawal of 10 per cent customs duty on cotton imports.
* CAI has expressed concerns of India losing its competitiveness to China, Pakistan and Bangladesh in the international market.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 160 Rupees to end at 25040 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 4889 on short covering after prices dropped as the Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers, to bring down the prices of these items, which have risen in retail markets since March. According to the order issued by the food ministry, valid until October 31, wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety. The stock limit for retailers has been fixed at 5 tonne. For millers, the limit is total production during last three months or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher. Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety (same as for wholesalers), for stocks held/imported before 15th May. However, this same stock limit will be applicable on importers after 45 days from date of customs clearance for stocks imported after May 15. Besides, in order to enhance domestic availability, ban on import of tur, urad and moong was lifted for the period between May 15 and October 31. The government also signed a 5-year agreement with Myanmar for annual import of 2.5 lakh tonne of urad and 1 lakh tonne of tur. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -273.75 Rupees to end at 4754.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.75% to settled at 82320 while prices up 25 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4763 and below same could see a test of 4638 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4969, a move above could see prices testing 5050.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4638-5050.
* Chana gained on short covering after prices dropped as Govt imposes stock limits for pulses to cool rising prices
* Wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.
* Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -273.75 Rupees to end at 4754.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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