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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 49312 weighed down by a strong dollar and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. US consumer prices unexpectedly rose 0.1% in August from a month ago, while the annual rate eased less than expected to 8.3%, prompting speculations that the Fed may deliver a bigger 100 basis point rate increase next week. Meanwhile, US producer prices fell for the second straight month in August, providing markets some relief. International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgiva also said on Wednesday that central banks must be “stubborn” in fighting broad-based inflation. While gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, denting its appeal. August’s net outflows follow investors pulling $4.5bn from gold-backed ETFs in July, $1.7bn in June, and $3.1bn in May. While total gold ETF holdings remain 3.6% ($202bn) higher compared to the start of the year, the four consecutive months of outflows have seen gold funds return two-thirds of the inflows that were accumulated through April. Physical gold demand in some Asian hubs remained firm as lower prices lured buyers, although an uptick in domestic rates restrained purchases in India. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.69% to settle at 10238 while prices are down -706 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49008 and below same could see a test of 48703 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49780, a move above could see prices testing 50247.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48703-50247.
* Gold weakened weighed down by a strong dollar and expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates aggressively
* US producer prices fell for the second straight month in August, providing markets some relief.
* Gold ETFs suffer fourth consecutive month of outflows

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1% at 56417 as the dollar held near recent peaks, diminishing the precious metal's safe-haven appeal. The dollar index remained supported by rising Treasury yields on expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates aggressively to tackle high inflation. The Fed is expected to deliver a third consecutive 75 basis-point rate hike when it meets next week. Fed funds futures suggest a 28 percent chance of a 100 basis-point rate hike after stronger-than-anticipated U.S. inflation figures for August. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 5 thousand to 213,000 in the week that ended September 10th, well below market expectations of 226,000. The figure marks the lowest amount of weekly jobless claims since the final week of May, highlighting a tight labor market and giving the Fed more space for aggressive interest rate hikes. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US fell to -9.9 in September of 2022 from 6.2 in August, missing market expectations of 2.8. The indicator for current activity returned to negative territory, the new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index also declined but remained positive. The firms reported continued increases in employment. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.99% to settle at 18884 while prices are down -569 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 55966 and below same could see a test of 55516 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57038, a move above could see prices testing 57660.

Trading Ideas:
*Silver trading range for the day is 55516-57660.
* Silver dropped as the dollar held near recent peaks, diminishing the precious metal's safe-haven appeal.
* US initial jobless claims lowest since May
* The Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates aggressively to tackle high inflation.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -3.98% at 6831 as investors weighed a weakening global economic outlook and potential subdued demand against tightening supplies. Despite the IEA and OPEC remaining somewhat bullish on fundamentals, persistent headwinds from surging inflation and shrinking financial conditions and its subsequent implication on economic activity remain a significant downside risk for demand. However, ongoing supply disruptions from key exporter Russia and a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, an oil producer, have been limiting further downside momentum. U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week to Sept. 9 to 429.6 million barrels, compared with expectations for an 833,000-barrel rise. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 135,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs rose by 93,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. Refinery utilization rates rose by 0.6 percentage points in the week. Growth in global oil demand is set to grind to a halt in the fourth quarter of this year as an economic slowdown deepens, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, but said it would resume strongly in 2023. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 17.07% to settle at 4834 while prices are down -283 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6696 and below same could see a test of 6562 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7030, a move above could see prices testing 7230.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6562-7230.
* Crude oil dropped as investors weighed a weakening global economic outlook and potential subdued demand against tightening supplies.
* However, ongoing supply disruptions from Russia and a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, have been limiting further downside momentum.
* U.S. crude stocks and distillate inventories rose while gasoline inventories fell, the Energy Information Administration said.

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.95% at 675.3 on a possible deal that would avoid a rail strike, after soaring 10% in the prior session on worries such a strike would boost demand for gas by threatening coal supplies to power plants. U.S. railway parties have agreed to a cooling off period as a standard part of the ratification process after reaching a tentative deal overnight, a move that would avert any shutdown in case unions fail to ratify it, according to a source familiar with the situation. In addition to the rail deal, the drop in gas prices also came on expectations output would reach a monthly record in September and demand would decline when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance in October. U.S. gas demand has already been reduced for months by the ongoing outage at the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas has left more gas in the United States for utilities to inject into stockpiles for next winter. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.0 bcfd so far in September from a record 98.0 bcfd in August. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -33.58% to settle at 3958 while prices are down -35.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 647.4 and below same could see a test of 619.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 712.7, a move above could see prices testing 750.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 619.4-750.
* Natural gas dropped on a possible deal that would avoid a rail strike
* The drop in gas prices also came on expectations output would reach a monthly record in September
* Demand would decline when the Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Maryland shuts for a couple weeks of maintenance in October.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 645.6 as the investors weighed the US inflation print for August, and they were still worried about the economic prospect following the expected aggressive US rate hike. Under the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Fed, the market was worried about the economic outlook. A group of Peruvian indigenous communities blocked a key copper transport road, a mining source and a community leader separately told, in protest over the planned expansion of a mine owned by Glencore in the country's Andean region. The highway, known as the mining corridor, is used by Glencore's Antapaccay as well as other key mines, including MMG Ltd's Las Bambas and Hudbay's Constancia. Five of China's largest banks, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by asset, have cut deposit rates for the first time since 2015, a move designed to ease pressure on their margins and boost lending to shore up domestic growth. Such a move followed an interest rate cut from the People Bank of China in August, with policymakers scrambling to revive an economy battered by President Xi's zero-Covid policy and a deepening property market crisis. The people Bank of China (PBoC) maintained borrowing cost on its medium term loans on Thursday, as hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve tightening limited room to manoeuvre monetary policy to support the economy. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.91% to settle at 5830 while prices are down -3.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 641.3 and below same could see a test of 636.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 651.9, a move above could see prices testing 658.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 636.9-658.1.
* Copper dropped as the investors weighed the US inflation print for August, and they were still worried about the economic prospect
* Peru communities block key copper transport road
* Five of China's largest banks, have cut deposit rates for the first time since 2015

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 283.4 amid persistent supply concerns. U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly jumped in August to an annual pace of 8.3%, not far from the four-decade peak reached in June. The hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading fuelled bets that the Fed's would certainly hike interest rates later this month, which could slow down global economy and dampen metals' demand. Expectations of deeper production cuts in Europe, shortages and dwindling stocks after high energy costs forced Nyrstar to shut its zinc smelter in the Netherlands have bolstered zinc’s price prospects. At the same time, Beijing recently imposed stringent power restrictions across the country. China's refined zinc output stood at 462,700 mt in August, down 13,200 mt or 2.77% on the month and 46,200 mt or 9.07% on the year. The global zinc market saw a deficit of 1,400 tonnes in June from a revised deficit of 1,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in May. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.68% to settle at 1452 while prices are down -3.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 279.7 and below same could see a test of 276 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 289.1, a move above could see prices testing 294.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 276-294.8.
* Zinc dropped amid firm dollar, fuelled by prospects of a solid interest rate increase after U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August.
* About half of the European Union's zinc production capacity "has already been forced offline due to the power crisis.”
* The zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 98,200 mt as of 9 September, up 1,400 mt from last Friday


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.56% at 201.6 as supply concerns rose on speculation of wider output cuts in China. About half of the European Union's aluminium and zinc production capacity "has already been forced offline due to the power crisis.” Prospects of better demand from the real estate sector also lifted sentiment, after property giant China Evergrande Group announced it would restart frozen construction projects, and on hopes of more supportive policies in China. According to data, the zinc ingot inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 98,200 mt as of 9 September, up 1,400 mt from last Friday and down 12,100 mt from the previous week. In the Shanghai market, the arrivals of zinc ingots transferred from Guangdong were still low during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday as most of them were sent to the Ningbo market. In addition, due to the high premiums in Shanghai, the downstream buyers were not active in picking up cargoes. Therefore, the inventory in Shanghai accumulated slightly over the weekend. It is expected that the zinc ingots from Guangdong will arrive in the upcoming two days. In Tianjin, some downstream enterprises restocked ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, while there were also arrivals of zinc ingots shipped from other areas to downstream enterprises. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -20.33% to settle at 4239 while prices are up 3.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 199.7 and below same could see a test of 197.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 202.8, a move above could see prices testing 203.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.7-203.9.
* Aluminium prices rose as supply concerns rose on speculation of wider output cuts in China
* PBoC holds steady one-year MLF rate at 2.75%
* China's Yunnan to extend power curbs on aluminium producers

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.35% at 963.4 as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 19.63 percent at 648.49 tonnes as compared to 806.87 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80. In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 283.33 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decline of over 45.28%. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1136.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.81% to settle at 1227 while prices are down -3.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 957.3 and below same could see a test of 951.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 972.2, a move above could see prices testing 981.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.2-981.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil remains unchanged at by 0 Rupees to end at 1136.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* However, downside seen limited amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* In the month of July 2022 around 155.04 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 113.33 tonnes in June 2022 showing a rise of 36.80.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.39% at 7368 as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par with last year's numbers. The Product Advisory Committee (PAC) on turmeric has rejected calls for banning futures trade in the commodity, claiming that it has not found any unusual movement in its price. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-July 2022 has rose by 17.72 percent at 62,245.73 tonnes as compared to 52,875.44 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%. In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,826.38 tonnes in July 2021 showing a decrease of 0.12%. In the month of June 2022 around 17,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7380.9 Rupees gained 95.15 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.53% to settle at 13240 while prices are up 172 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7252 and below same could see a test of 7134 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7464, a move above could see prices testing 7558.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7134-7558.
* Turmeric gained as sowing activities has almost completed in major growing states across India and Crop size is expected to be on par with last year's numbers.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of July 2022 around 12,810.36 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 18,532.00 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 30.87%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7380.9 Rupees gained 95.15 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 25545 on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-July 2022 has dropped by 37.28 percent at 67,057.16 tonnes as compared to 1,06 ,929.72 tonnes exported during Apr-July 2021. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in June 2022 showing a drop of 7.97%. In the month of July 2022 around 19,866.18 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 24,167.64 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 17.80%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 99.65 Rupees to end at 24911.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.38% to settle at 8703 while prices are down -20 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25420 and below same could see a test of 25300 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25710, a move above could see prices testing 25880.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 25300-25880.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 99.65 Rupees to end at 24911.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 34810 as U.S. export data showing solid sales of the natural fiber, with an elevated dollar preventing any large gains. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.34% to 126.66 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118 lakh hectares in 2021. Cotton crops, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), given no climatic adversities affect the crop during October, sources said. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 7.34% to 126.66 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 118 lakh hectares in 2021.Atul Ganatra, President, Cotton Association of India (CAI), stated that the cotton crop condition in India was "very good and if everything goes well, we are expecting 350 lakh bales +/– 25 lakh bales." In its monthly supply-demand report, the 2022/23 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks, production, exports and ending stocks this month, the USDA's report said. Additionally, the 2022/23 world cotton projections include higher production and ending stocks relative to last month, and lower consumption. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -90 Rupees to end at 40380 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.39% to settle at 776 while prices are up 90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 34520 and below same could see a test of 34240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35060, a move above could see prices testing 35320.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 34240-35320.# Cotton gains as U.S. export data showing solid sales of the natural fiber, with an elevated dollar preventing any large gains.
* India’s cotton output for the season 2022-23 is likely to touch 375 lakh bales
* Cotton area is estimated at 126 lakh hectares till September 2 — up 8-9 per cent from 117 lakh hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -90 Rupees to end at 40380 Rupees.

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