MCX Aluminum December is expected move in a tight range of 242 and 246 - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot gold is to expected to hold its gains and extend its rebound towards $2735 amid safe haven buying. Escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine would provide support to the yellow metal. Meanwhile, mixed comments from the Fed members and declining probability of December rate cut would limit the upside in the bullions. Further, strength in the dollar and expectation of better economic numbers from US would cap sharp upside in prices.
* Spot gold has rallied above the psychological mark at $2700 and retraced above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent decline at $2696, indicating more room for prices towards $2735. Only a move below $2670 (20 DEMA) it would fall towards $2635. MCX Gold December is expected to rise towards 78,200 as long as it holds above 77,000.
* Spot Silver is likely to hold the support of 100 day EMA at $30.60 and rise towards $31.60. MCX Silver is expected to move towards 91,500, as long as it holds above 89,000.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to regain its strength and move higher amid improved demand outlook. Depleting inventory levels in SHFE and LME indicates demand improvement. Further, improved premiums along with TC charges could provide some support to the base metals. Meanwhile, strong dollar and diminishing probability of December rate cut in US would check its upside. Now the focus will remain on key economic numbers which could bring more clarity.
* MCX Copper December is expected to find the floor near 800 and move higher towards 812. A move above 812 would open the doors towards 818.
* MCX Aluminum December is expected move in a tight range of 242 and 246. Only a move above 246 it would rise towards 248.
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade higher and move towards $73 amid escalating geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine. Further, demand improvement from China and India would support the oil prices to stay higher. Higher crack spread indicates demand improvement as refiners are likely to meet the by products demand. Furthermore, improved risk sentiments would also support the oil prices to stay higher.
* On the data front, closer of OI in the ATM and OTM call strike indicates an upward bias. MCX Crude oil December is likely to hold the support near 5900 and rise towards 6100. Only above 6100 it would rise towards 6200.
* Natural gas December future is expected to decline towards the initial support at 272, as long as it trades under 290. Formation of bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart could limit its upside.
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