Commodity Article : MCX Gold hits all-time highs; demand concerns drag crude lower Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
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Below is Daily Commodity Article by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities, and Currencies, Angel One Ltd
GOLD
The up-move was stretched further on Tuesday, as gold prices continued to gain. MCX gold hit all-time highs, as prices went past the 57,000 mark.
On the other hand, the prolonged uptrend in spot gold has caused the price to remain close to the nine-month high reached in the previous session on anticipations of a more gradual increase in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve.
Investors may favor zero-yield gold since lower rates translate into reduced returns on interest-bearing assets like government bonds.
Market attention is currently focused on Thursday's estimated US fourth quarter GDP growth.
Outlook: Given the weakened dollar and the expectation that the US Fed will further slow the pace of interest rate increases, gold prices are expected to remain high.
CRUDE OIL
Post beginning the new week on a higher note, crude benchmarks on Tuesday witnessed pressure at higher levels, as both Brent and NYMEX ended on a lower note.
A worldwide economic slowdown and early data showing a larger-than-expected growth in US oil stocks both contributed to the pressure on crude prices.
The US business activity contracted in January for the seventh consecutive month, but for the first time since September, the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors.
S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revealed that in January, business activity in the Euro zone unexpectedly returned to modest growth in January
Outlook: We expect crude to trade lower towards 6480 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 6410 levels.
BASE METALS
Nearly all the metals on Tuesday ended on a higher note, except for LME Copper and MCX Nickel, which ended lower.
Tuesday saw a slight decline in copper prices due to a stronger currency, concern about a possible global recession, and strong demand from China, the world's largest consumer of metals.
Due to Chinese markets being closed for the Lunar New Year vacation, volumes were lower than usual.
On the other hand, according to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global zinc market shortfall increased to 119,500 metric tons in November from a revised deficit of 39,400 metric tons a month earlier.
Outlook: Due to growing demand, which is supported by developments in China and a declining dollar, metal prices are anticipated to stay high.
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