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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.62% at 49140 as a broader market sell-off weighed on the metal along with a firm dollar, while hopes for further stimulus from the U.S. limited the downside. U.S. President Joe Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan, though some Republicans have expressed concerns over the amount. U.S. manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in nearly 14 years in early January, but bottlenecks in the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are driving up prices and signaling a rise in inflation in the months ahead. Other data showed an unexpected increase in sales of previously owned homes in December. Manufacturing and the housing market are helping to anchor the economy, which is being battered by a wave of coronavirus infections. But the pandemic is causing labor shortages at construction sites and factories, which could erode some of the strength in the manufacturing and housing sectors. Demand for physical gold picked up as the approaching Chinese New Year encouraged buyers in China and Singapore, with dealers expecting more purchases in coming weeks. Chinese dealers charged $0.50-$4 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices, unchanged from last week when they added a premium having been forced to offer heavy discounts for much of 2020 as the pandemic squeezed retail demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.97% to settled at 5011 while prices down -308 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48751 and below same could see a test of 48361 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49465, a move above could see prices testing 49789.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 48361-49789.
* Gold prices fell as a broader market sell-off weighed on the metal along with a firm dollar, while hopes for further stimulus from the U.S. limited the downside.
* U.S. President Joe Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan, though some Republicans have expressed concerns over the amount.
* U.S. manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in nearly 14 years in early January

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 66642 as the dollar gained in strength, rebounding from recent losses. Pressure also seen as bond yields rose after the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a hawkish tweak about operation of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). However, continued optimism about further stimulus from the Biden administration supported the bullion and limited its downside. After keeping interest rates at their record-low level and bond-buying at €1.85 trillion ($2.25 trillion), the ECB signaled that it will not necessarily use the whole package. In economic news, a report released by the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rebounded in the month of December, climbing by 0.7% to an annual rate of 6.76 million. In November, home sales had tumbled by 2.2% to a revised rate of 6.71 million. U.S. business activity accelerated at the start of the new year, particularly among manufacturers, while capacity constraints generated more inflationary pressures. The IHS Markit flash January composite index of purchasing managers at manufacturers and service providers increased to 58, the second-highest since March 2015, from 55.3 a month earlier, the group reported. U.S. manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in nearly 14 years in early January, but bottlenecks in the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are driving up prices and signaling a rise in inflation in the months ahead. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.11% to settled at 11354 while prices down -658 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 65712 and below same could see a test of 64781 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67287, a move above could see prices testing 67931.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64781-67931.
* Silver prices drifted lower as the dollar gained in strength, rebounding from recent losses.
* Pressure also seen as bond yields rose after the ECB delivered a hawkish tweak about operation of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program.
* However, continued optimism about further stimulus from the Biden administration supported the bullion and limited its downside.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.52% at 3835 after data showed a notable rise in U.S. crude inventories and rising coronavirus cases and lockdown measures in several places raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to decline for the fourth straight month to about 7.52 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, the lowest since June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a monthly forecast. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose for a fifth consecutive month to a seven-month peak of 6.35 million barrels per day (bpd) in November 2020, official data showed. In October, the kingdom exported 6.16 million bpd of crude oil. U.S. crude oil stocks surprisingly rose and fuel inventories were also higher in the most recent week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 15 to about 487.1 million barrels, compared with expectations for a fall of 1.2 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 4.3 million barrels, API said. Refinery crude runs rose by 294,000 barrels per day, API data showed. Distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 816,000 barrels, compared to expectations for a build of 1.2 million barrels. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.03% to settled at 1394 while prices down -59 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 3781 and below same could see a test of 3727 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3877, a move above could see prices testing 3919.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 3727-3919.
* Crude oil fell after data showed a notable rise in U.S. crude inventories and rising lockdown measures raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand.
* U.S. shale oil output to drop 90,000 bpd to 7.52 mln bpd in Feb
* U.S. crude oil stocks surprisingly rose and fuel inventories were also higher in the most recent week

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled flat at 179.7 on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand through early February. That small decline came even though higher gas prices around the world continued to prompt buyers to purchase near record amounts of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). The EIA reported that natural gas in storage was 3,009 Bcf as of Friday, January 15, 2021. This represents a net decrease of 187 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 36 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 198 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,811 Bcf. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January. That compares with an eight-month high of 91.5 bcfd in December and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Even though the weather will remain milder than normal through early February, next week is still expected to be much colder than this week. Refinitiv projected that cold would boost average gas demand, including exports, to 125.6 bcfd next week from 119.5 bcfd this week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.5 bcfd so far in January, just shy of December’s 10.7-bcfd monthly record. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 4278 while prices remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 176.7 and below same could see a test of 173.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 182.4, a move above could see prices testing 185.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 173.7-185.1.
* Natural gas settled flat on forecasts for mostly mild weather and lower-than-normal heating demand through early February.
* That decline came even though much higher gas prices around the world continued to prompt buyers to purchase near record amounts of U.S. LNG
* EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 88.17 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from 90.76 bcfd in 2020 before rising to 89.66 bcfd in 2022.

Copper


Copper yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 610.25 hit by demand concerns over growing numbers of coronavirus cases in top user China ahead of the traditionally slow Lunar New Year holiday season next month. China's refined copper production in December surged 10.9% year-on-year to a monthly record high, while annual output also set an all-time peak in 2020 as smelters recovered from the impact of COVID-19 and ramped up supply to meet resurgent demand. December refined copper output reached 986,000 tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics data showed, smashing the previous monthly record of 945,000 tonnes in November. Annual refined copper production in China, the world's top copper consumer, rose 7.4% in 2020 to 10.03 million tonnes, beating the previous peak in 2019 and exceeding 10 million tonnes for the first time. China's imports of copper concentrate from Australia dried up completely in December, customs data showed, as smelters shunned Australian supply amid tense bilateral ties. China’s economic recovery, one of the major factors that helped copper prices nearly double last year, is under threat as the world’s second-biggest economy battles its worst coronavirus outbreak since March 2020. Global copper smelting activity climbed in December, led by top producer China, while North America extended its decline as coronavirus cases surged. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 35.13% to settled at 3785 while prices down -4.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 603.2 and below same could see a test of 596.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 614.8, a move above could see prices testing 619.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 596.1-619.3.
* Copper prices declined hit by demand concerns over growing numbers of coronavirus cases in China ahead of the traditionally slow Lunar New Year.
* China's refined copper production in December surged 10.9% year-on-year to a monthly record high
* Global copper smelting activity climbed in December, led by top producer China, while North America extended its decline as coronavirus cases surged.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 215 as many enterprises have cut production unexpectedly and conducted maintenance were mainly smelters in Huayuan area and smelters in Sichuan. The reason for this maintenance and production reduction is still the current high prices of zinc ore and smelters are unwilling to continue full production under low profits or even losses. For some companies that plan to conduct maintenance in February, the actual time to start maintenance and the expected amount of impact have not yet been determined. The dollar fell as risk appetite held up on optimism about a massive stimulus package under the new Joe Biden administration that will likely bolster a US economic recovery. Yellen said pandemic relief would take priority over tax increases, adding that the benefits of a relief package outweighed the expenses of a higher debt burden. China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year. In the full 2020, output totalled 6.1 million mt, up 4.44% from 2019. Zinc smelters produced 78,700 mt of zinc alloy in December, down 3.78% from the previous month. China's refined zinc output in December basically met expectations. Treatment charges (TCs) for domestic 50 grade zinc concentrate continued to decline in December. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 22.14% to settled at 1567 while prices up 0.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 212.1 and below same could see a test of 209.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.6, a move above could see prices testing 218.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 209.2-218.2.
* Zinc prices gained as many enterprises have cut production unexpectedly.
* U.S. manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in nearly 14 years in early January
* China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.85% at 1329 after update global nickel market surplus rose to 2,000 tonnes in November from a revised 400 tonne surplus the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. For the first 11 months of 2020 there was a global surplus of 109,600 tonnes, compared with a deficit of 37,600 tonnes in the same period the previous year. The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, but said it stands ready to act in light of the new restrictions. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the pandemic “still poses serious risks” to the euro zone economy. In the United States, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council will lobby lawmakers from both parties for Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan. At present, Republicans have little interest. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 260,000 wmt from January 15 to 8.61 million wmt as of January 22, showed data. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 170,000 wmt during the same period to 6.77 million wmt. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas decreased 2,600 mt from a week ago and stood at 18,600 mt as of January 22, showed data. The import window for nickel plate has been completely opened since last week due to the shortage of domestic refined nickel inventories. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.36% to settled at 1558 while prices down -11.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1310.6 and below same could see a test of 1292.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1341.1, a move above could see prices testing 1353.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1292.3-1353.3.
* Nickel prices dropped after update global nickel market surplus rose to 2,000 tonnes in November from a revised 400 tonne surplus the previous month
* The European Central Bank held interest rates steady, but said it stands ready to act in light of the new restrictions.
* Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 260,000 wmt from January 15 to 8.61 million wmt as of January 22, showed data.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 162.55 after data showed UK business activity declined sharply in January due to severe curbs imposed to stem coronavirus infections. A preliminary IHS Markit/CIPS composite Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) fell to 40.6 in January, down from 50.4 in December, with services companies in Britain hit the hardest. Another set of data showed British retailers struggled to recover in December from a lockdown the previous month, marking a weak end to their worst year on record. U.S. manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in nearly 14 years in early January, but bottlenecks in the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are driving up prices and signaling a rise in inflation in the months ahead. Other data showed an unexpected increase in sales of previously owned homes in December. Manufacturing and the housing market are helping to anchor the economy, which is being battered by a wave of coronavirus infections. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 15,000 mt from the prior week to 669,000 mt as of January 21. COVID-induced transport restrictions reduced arrivals of cargoes in Wuxi and Nanhai. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China expanded 1,600 mt from the prior week to 84,300 mt as of January 21. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.85% to settled at 755 while prices down -0.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 161.2 and below same could see a test of 159.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 163.4, a move above could see prices testing 164.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 159.9-164.3.
* Aluminum dropped after UK business activity declined sharply in January due to severe curbs imposed to stem coronavirus infections
* U.S. manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in nearly 14 years in early January
* Social inventories of primary aluminium including SHFE warrants, declined 15,000 mt to 669,000 mt

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 973.6 on some low level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1127 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 40% to settled at 70 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 969.8 and below same could see a test of 965.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 976.8, a move above could see prices testing 979.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 965.9-979.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1127 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained  on some low level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.83% at 4540 tracking weakness in overseas prices as rains in South American key growing areas eased worries about global supply. Argentine soybean planting sped forward over the last week, helped by rain that moistened fields parched by months of dry weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said. Losses in soybean market were limited by private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. cargoes to China and 163,290 tonnes to Mexico, both for shipment in the 2020/21 season. BV Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said that poultry consumes about 5 million tonnes of soya every year and despite the bird flu, soya prices would not come down drastically. “Soya constitutes about 30 per cent of poultry feed every month. If the domestic demand dips, we are looking for additional export. We don’t want to increase export by reducing supply to the domestic market, but if local demand fails to pick up we will enhance export,” said Mehta. China's soybean imports hit a record high in 2020, customs data showed, after crushers ramped up purchases amid improved margins and healthy demand from the country's rapidly recovering pig sector. China, the world's top soybean buyer, bought 100.33 million tonnes of the oilseed in 2020, up 13% from 88.51 million tonnes in 2019, according to the General Administration of Customs, the highest annual imports on record. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4625 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.91% to settled at 185870 while prices down -38 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4519 and below same could see a test of 4497 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4566, a move above could see prices testing 4591.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4497-4591.
* Soyabean dropped tracking weakness in overseas prices as rains in South American key growing areas eased worries about global supply.
* Argentine soybean planting sped forward over the last week, helped by rain that moistened fields parched by months of dry weather
* Losses in soybean market were limited by private sales of 136,000 tonnes of U.S. cargoes to China and 163,290 tonnes to Mexico
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 4625 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -2.6% at 1050.6 as the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry. The outbreak of avian influenza in Parbhani district has been among poultry, while AI has been confirmed from crows in Mumbai, Thane, Dapoli, Maharashtra. Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas. Largest exporter Argentina and Uruguay have also reported lower production of soybean this year, soybean production is lowered 2 million tons to 48 million for Argentina and 200,000 to 2.2 million for Uruguay, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January.. NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans processed in the United States, were estimated to have crushed a near-record 185.175 million bushels of soybeans last month. Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of December were seen rising for a third straight month to 1.712 billion pounds, compared with 1.558 billion pounds at the end of November and 1.757 billion pounds at the end of December 2019. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1072.6 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.24% to settled at 35775 while prices down -28.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1041 and below same could see a test of 1032 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1066, a move above could see prices testing 1082.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1032-1082.
* Ref soyoil prices dropped as pressure seen amid the sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares.
* Pressure also seen tracking weakness in soyabean prices as the outbreak of bird flu may reduce the demand for soybean from the poultry industry
* Soybean production is estimated at 4.135 billion bushels, down 35 million led by reductions for Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1072.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.25% at 918.8 as tepid January exports and weak prices of rival soyoil weighed on sentiment. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods. Malaysia's commodities ministry forecast crude palm oil production at 19.7 million tonnes in 2021, rising from 19.14 million tonnes last year. "This is due to the expected expansion of mature oil palm areas as well as the effects of dry weather affecting the production of fresh palm fruit bunches, and subsequently crude palm oil production," Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali said in a statement. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 41% to 632,827 tonnes from the same period in December, AmSpec Agri Malaysia said. Exports during Jan. 1-15 had also declined 42%. Contracting demand outweighed fears of supply disruption as flooding in several parts of Malaysia hurt output. Focus will also be on Indonesia Feb. palm oil export levies and export duty announcement; at present it is expected to increase to $255 and $93 per tonne respectively, totalling $348 per tonne, in comparison to $72 per tonne export tax from Malaysia. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -12.6 Rupees to end at 919.8 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.05% to settled at 1798 while prices down -11.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 912.8 and below same could see a test of 906.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 927.2, a move above could see prices testing 935.5.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 906.7-935.5.
* Crude palm oil prices dropped as tepid January exports and weak prices of rival soyoil weighed on sentiment.
* Disappointing Malaysia export figures are still lingering in the market, offsetting worries of supply disruption due to heavy rain and floods.
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Jan. 1-20 fell 41% to 632,827 tonnes from the same period in December
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -12.6 Rupees to end at 919.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 5602 after update India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare on January 1, 2021, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. The latest data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that this time the production of oilseeds crops was 75.93 lakh hectare as compared to the last season. In oilseed crops, mustard-rapeseed production area jumped from 66.62 lakh hectare last year to 72.39 lakh hectare. The Union Agriculture Ministry has set a target of sowing mustard in 75 lakh hectare area during the current Rabi season. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6150 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.73% to settled at 15870 while prices down -34 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5565 and below same could see a test of 5529 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5658, a move above could see prices testing 5715.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5529-5715.
* Mustard seed prices dropped as India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level.
* Sowing of mustard, has increased to 72.98 lakh hectare in the current Rabi whereas till last year, it was sown only in 68.15 lakh hectare.
* The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6150 Rupees per 100 kg.


Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.95% at 6228 due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year. However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6000 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.21% to settled at 8320 while prices down -60 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6176 and below same could see a test of 6124 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6304, a move above could see prices testing 6380.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6124-6380.
* Turmeric dropped due to excess stocks which will be 50-60% of the excess in the current year as carry forward in the next year.
* However downside seen limited amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area
* Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6000 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 13235 due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. Cues coming from spot market of improved demand from domestic stockiest as a recovery of demand during the festive season on the eve of makar Sankranti and Ramjan toward January to mid-may can be seen which also supported prices. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13100 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.43% to settled at 1443 while prices up 35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13160 and below same could see a test of 13080 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13325, a move above could see prices testing 13410.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13080-13410.
* Jeera prices gained due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches.
* Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.
* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13100 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 21380 on profit booking and as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop, top officials at the CCI said. Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up. Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers. The CCI has procured 85 lakh bales and may procure another 5-10 lakh bales. USDA projecting lower opening stocks, production and ending stocks this season (October 2020-September 2021), raising hopes of the commodity exports from India. Going by current trends, India’s cotton exports can touch 65 lakh bales (170 kg each) and it can help reduce the country’s huge carryover stocks from last season. However, Cotton Association of India (CAI) President Atul Ganatra said export demand is currently slow due to novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown in Europe and few more countries. His association has pegged exports at 54 lakh bales this season. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has permitted those who buy cotton from it through e-auctions, to lock in the cotton prices. In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 21060 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.96% to settled at 6028 while prices down -170 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21290 and below same could see a test of 21200 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21530, a move above could see prices testing 21680.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21200-21680.
* Cotton prices dropped on profit booking and as cotton procurement by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has almost come to a stop.
* Cotton procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) programme has reduced with prices going up.
* Cotton arrivals are staggered with around 210 lakh bales having already arrived into the market with another 140-150 lakh bales remaining with farmers.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 80 Rupees to end at 21060 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.03% at 4518 as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 % and the new crop is hardly one and a half month away. Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh. Chana acreage has soared by 115% to 8.03 lh. Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875. Apart from it has offered 5 to 10 % discount over previous MSP on particular centers. As offtake from central pool is lower, Nafed may decrease price further to vacate storage space for new procurement. It would not allow chana cash market to go up beyond a certain level. Delhi chana is being traded at Rs4550-4650. Demand is weak. Weather condition in Jan –Feb remains crucial. The latest data shows that the total area of pulses has increased by 7% to 141 lakh hectares. More sowing is done in Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand as compared to last year. Gram cultivation has increased by about 10%. NAFED to sell Gram PSS Rabi-2020 stock from all the States at or above base prices of Rs. 5100 per quintal in the month of December 2020, it offers an initial quantity of 1.5 LMT of Gram, for the month of December 2020. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4500 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.44% to settled at 34230 while prices up 46 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4478 and below same could see a test of 4437 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4545, a move above could see prices testing 4571.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4437-4571.
* Chana gained as Nafed’s unstable chana releasing strategy continues to affect market directly at a time when area is up by 5 %
* Pulses sowing area jumped by nearly 109% to 8.55 lh.
* Nafed continued to fix reserve price and changed it frequently from Rs 5600 to Rs. 5100, again Rs. 5100 to Rs. 4875.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4500 Rupees per 100 kgs.

-www.kediaadvisory.com