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Merger key event to watch for in FY26 * After a strong 1Q, 2Q will likely be a weak quarter for GUJS owing to fading power demand, a one-month shutdown at Morbi, and the full-quarter impact of the tariff cut. We build in EBITDA of INR2.4b and transmission volume of 34mmscmd (down 7% QoQ). We estimate EBITDA/PAT to decline by 21%/10% QoQ. However, we estimate transmission volumes to reach 38.5mmscmd by FY26 (12% CAGR over FY24-26), driven by upcoming LNG terminals in Gujarat and improved d...
Neutral Gujarat State Petronet Ltd for Target Rs.472 By Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
GSPL reported a 26% PAT beat in Q1FY25, led by lower opex on reversals in unaccounted gas costs and 11% higher-than-expected book tariff realization due to take or pay income. SA EBITDA/RPAT fell 20%/17% QoQ to Rs3.0bn/Rs2.1bn (down 11%/8% QoQ) due to levy of lower tariffs from May24. Gas transmission volume rose 9% QoQ to 36.4mmscmd (up 24% YoY, inline) with Power/CGD offtake up by 3.4/1.2mmscmd QoQ, while refinerypetchem fell by 1.2mmscmd. We raise FY25-26E SA EPS 11-12% each, factoring in ...
Add Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs. 370 by Emkay Global Financial Services
Weaker than expected volumes; a decline in tariff impacts the earning Our View GSPL's Q1FY25 performance presents a weak picture, EBITDA and PAT witnessed YoY de-growth of 10.5%/7.5% and 20.4%/18.8% QoQ despite an increase in volumes due to a sharp decline in tariffs. Volumes at 36.4mmscmd was lower than our expectations of 39.8mmscmd, on lower-than-expected power and refinery sector demand. However, the tariffs at (Rs 0.982/scm) were close to our expectations of (Rs 0.972/scm). The...
Neutral Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.353 By Yes Securities
GSPL: PNGRB's revised tariff order disappoints * Event: On 20th Apr’24, PNGRB issued a tariff order for Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL)’s HP gas network. The tariff was reduced to INR18.1/mmbtu from INR34.0/mmbtu (provisional). GSPL had requested for an upward tariff revision to INR50.77/mmbtu. The key difference between GSPL and the regulator’s view stems from three heads: 1) capex (INR13.7/mmbtu reduction), 2) opex (INR8.7/mmbtu reduction), and 3) volume divisor ...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs. 450 By Motilal Oswal Financial Services
EBITDA lower than our estimates; Higher volumes a surprise while tariffs decline impact the earnings Our View GSPL's Q4FY24 performance presents a mixed picture, EBITDA and PAT witnessed YoY growth of 28.3%/16.5%, but flat QoQ despite an increase in volumes due to a decline in tariffs. Volumes at 33.4mmscmd surpassed our expectations of 30.8mmscmd, on better refinery and other sector demand. However, higher-thanexpected decline in tariffs (Rs 1.495/scm) offset the volume strength. ...
ADD Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. For Target Rs.329 - Yes Securities
In-line EBITDA led by strong volumes * Gujarat State Petronet’s (GUJS) 4QFY24 EBITDA was in line with our est. at INR3.8b, led by higher transmission volume of 33.4mmscmd. EBITDAM was 50bp higher than our estimate at 83.1%. Realization was lower than our estimate at INR1,495/mmscm. * Spot LNG price currently stands at ~USD10.5/mmBtu, down from ~USD12.6/mmBtu in 2HFY24, which bodes well for GUJS volumes. * We see minimal downside for GUJS from current levels given a robust volum...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. For Target Rs.350 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Tariff order disappointing; volume outlook remains robust * On 20th Apr’24, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) issued a tariff order (TO) for Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS)’s HP gas network. The tariff was reduced to INR18.1/mmBtu from INR34.0/mmBtu (provisional), which was a major disappointment. Following the TO, we cut our FY25/26E EPS estimates for GUJS by ~41% each. We also reduce our TP by 21% to INR355. * However, we see limited downside for the st...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. for Target Rs. 355 By Motilal Oswal Financial Services
GSPL: PNGRB's revised tariff order disappoints * Event: On 20th Apr’24, PNGRB issued a tariff order for Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL)’s HP gas network. The tariff was reduced to INR18.1/mmbtu from INR34.0/mmbtu (provisional). GSPL had requested for an upward tariff revision to INR50.77/mmbtu. The key difference between GSPL and the regulator’s view stems from three heads: 1) capex (INR13.7/mmbtu reduction), 2) opex (INR8.7/mmbtu reduction), and 3) volume divisor (...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.450 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Lower volumes offset by higher realization * Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS)’s 3QFY24 EBITDA was in line with our est. at INR3.8b, led by higher realization of INR1,628/mmscm. EBITDAM was 110bp lower than our estimate at 83.3%. Volumes were lower than our estimate at 29mmscmd due to lower offtake by the power sector. * The management highlighted that there has been an increase in HP volumes, which led to better realization. LP volumes declined during the quarter. Incremental revenu...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.450 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
IPCA consolidated Unichem w.e.f. Aug’23, which reflected in Dec-Q’s 33% revenue growth and lower margin of 16%. While the management guides for INR 20bn revenue and INR 3bn EBITDA by FY26, we believe this can be achieved ahead of expectations. The key highlight during the quarter was 29% miss on branded formulations due to deferment of shipments to CIS, issues in Myanmar and lower demand. Generic formulations grew 33%YoY and we expect this trajectory to continue. Domestic business...
Buy Gujarat State Petro Ltd. For Target Rs.: 1,280 - JM Financial Securities
GSPL’s 3QFY24 standalone EBITDA was in line with JMFe at INR 3.8bn (slightly lower than consensus of INR 3.9bn) as lower transmission volume was offset by slightly higher transmission margin. Implied transmission EBITDA margin was marginally higher at INR 1,343/tcm vs. JMFe of INR 1,320/tcm as weighted average tariff was higher QoQ at INR 1,797/tcm in 3QFY24 (vs. INR 1,750/tcm in 2QFY24) probably due to likely take-or-pay income; cash opex was higher at INR 454/tcm (vs. INR 317/tcm in 2...
Buy Gujarat State Petro Ltd. For Target Rs.: 400 - JM Financial Securities
Transmission tariff hike, key growth trigger GSPL is a pure transmission play operating out of Gujarat in western India, second to GAIL in natural gas transmission. Along with GAIL, GSPL is working towards fulfilling the government’s target of increasing natural gas share in energy mix to 15% by 2030. GSPC, parent company of GSPL, holds 54.2% stake in Gujarat Gas. The capital raised for the GSPL stake in Gujarat Gas has been fully paid off. GSPC has 5mmtpa LNG terminal at Mundra in t...
Add Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.375 - Yes Securities Ltd
Better volume mix leads to higher realization * Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS)’s 2QFY24 EBITDA, at INR4.1b, beat our estimate led by lower-than-expected other expenses. EBITDAM, at 90.5%, was 500bp higher than our estimate. Volumes, at 30.2mmscmd, were lower than estimated. * Management highlighted that there has been an increase in HP volumes that led to better realization with LP volumes declining during the quarter. The implied tariff during the quarter was INR1,587/mmscm. We es...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.325 - Motilal Oswal Financial Services
GSPL posted a 17% EBITDA beat at Rs4.1bn in Q2FY24, led by 13% higher than expected tariff of Rs1.59/scm (up 11% QoQ) owing to a greater share of HP in the mix, amid largely in-line volume. Q2 PAT came in at a 25% beat, at Rs5.3bn, due to lower ETR of 15% (from Gujarat Gas dividend). GSPL’s H1 capex stood at Rs3.3bn vs. Rs462mn YoY/1.98bn HoH, implying rebound in the capex cycle which should lead to favorable tariff revision—albeit, still awaited. Gas transmission volume rose 3% Q...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.335 - JM Financial
Earnings beat on higher transmission margin, volume slightly lower GSPL’s 2QFY24 standalone EBITDA was INR 4.1bn, slightly higher than JMFe/consensus of INR 3.5bn/ INR 3.7bn due to higher transmission margin while volume was a tad lower. Hence, PAT was also higher at INR 5.3bn vs. JMFe/consensus of INR 4.1bn/ INR 4.6bn, aided by slightly higher other income. Implied transmission EBITDA margin was higher at INR 1,433/tcm (vs. INR 1,221/tcm in 1QFY24) as weighted average tariff was hig...
Buy Gujarat State Petronet Ltd For Target Rs.345 - JM Financial
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