Zinc trading range for the day is 322.4-328.4 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices declined in the previous session, settling 0.93% lower at 161,789, as the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened and hovered near highs reached since tensions escalated between United States and Iran earlier this month. The stronger dollar reduced the appeal of bullion, while investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. Recent economic data also influenced sentiment. Inflation in the U.S. remained steady, with consumer prices rising 2.4% year-on-year in February, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stood at 2.5%, the lowest level since March 2021. Despite moderating inflation, markets largely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for now, with traders pricing in only one potential 25 basis point rate cut, possibly around September. On the demand side, China continues to provide strong support to the global gold market. The People's Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak for a 16th consecutive month, with total holdings reaching 74.22 million troy ounces by the end of February. In addition, China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong rose sharply by 68.7% month-on-month in January, reflecting steady investment demand. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.71% to 7,552 while prices dropped by Rs1,514. Gold has immediate support at 160,960, with a break below potentially testing 160,135. On the upside, resistance is seen at 162,880, and a move above this level could push prices toward 163,975.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 160135-163975.
* Gold dropped as dollar index resumed gains, hovering near the high levels reached since the war with Iran began.
* February inflation came in line with forecasts, showing stable but above-target CPI.
* Escalating US-Iran war keeps geopolitical tensions elevated
Silver
Silver prices declined sharply in the previous session, settling 3.37% lower at 268,491, as the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened while investors assessed ongoing geopolitical tensions and fresh inflation data from the United States. The conflict involving Israel and Iran has now entered its twelfth day, with the Pentagon reporting some of the most intense strikes so far and indicating that operations could continue until Iran is fully neutralized. The situation has created uncertainty in global markets, particularly after disruptions in the Hormuz, a key route for energy shipments. The shutdown of the strait has pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns about global inflation, prompting markets to scale back expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. U.S. inflation remained stable, with consumer prices rising 2.4% in February, reinforcing expectations that the U.S. Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. Despite the recent price correction, the physical silver market continues to show signs of tightening. Inventories on the SHFE have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015, highlighting growing supply constraints. Similarly, silver holdings in London vaults declined to 27,065 tonnes by the end of February, reflecting steady drawdowns in global stockpiles. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 3.11% to 5,848 while prices dropped by Rs9,359. Silver has immediate support at 263,390, with a break below potentially testing 258,295. On the upside, resistance is seen at 275,290, and a move above this level could push prices toward 282,095.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 258295-282095.
* Silver prices dropped as dollar recovered as investors evaluated escalating tensions in the Middle East alongside fresh US inflation data.
* US inflation held steady at 2.4% in February, before the Iran war began.
* Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady next week, with traders anticipating only one 25bp cut this year, potentially in September.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices rallied strongly in the previous session, settling 9.24% higher at 8,107, as supply concerns intensified amid the ongoing conflict involving United States, Israel, and Iran. The war has disrupted supply flows from the Gulf region, tightening the global oil market and supporting prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brent Crude could remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months if tensions in the Middle East continue. Recent inventory data also provided support. Figures from the API showed that U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.68 million barrels in the week ending March 6. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.84 million barrels, while distillate stocks dropped by 2.26 million barrels, reflecting firm fuel demand. However, official data from the U.S. EIA showed crude inventories rising by 3.8 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell sharply by 3.7 million barrels. Meanwhile, market forecasts remain constructive. HSBC raised its 2026 average Brent price forecast to $80 per barrel and WTI to $76, citing tighter global supply conditions. On the production side, Russia reported a slight decline in oil output to 9.184 million barrels per day in February, while Kazakhstan increased production as output recovered at the Tengiz Oilfield. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.83% to 17,057 while prices rose by Rs686. Crude oil has immediate support at 7,714, with a break below potentially testing 7,320. On the upside, resistance is seen at 8,363, and a move above this level could push prices toward 8,618.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7320-8618.
* Crude oil prices rose as supplies from the Gulf remain constrained amid U.S. and Israel's war on Iran.
* IEA approved its largest-ever emergency oil release, tapping 400 million barrels to curb rising prices
* Brent oil prices are set to remain above $95 a barrel over the next two months - EIA
Natural gas
Natural gas prices moved sharply higher in the previous session, settling 7.28% up at 296.2, largely tracking strength in European benchmarks as geopolitical tensions intensified in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, United States, and several Gulf Cooperation Council countries has raised serious concerns about global gas supplies. Adding to the pressure, Qatar halted its liquefied natural gas operations following regional strikes, effectively removing nearly 20% of global LNG supply from the market. Exports from the UAE have also stalled as tankers avoid passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route. This disruption has intensified competition for LNG cargoes worldwide. In response, the United Kingdom increased pipeline imports from Norway while temporarily suspending surplus gas exports to continental Europe to secure domestic supply. On the fundamentals side, the U.S. EIA expects U.S. natural gas production to continue rising, projecting output to increase from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 109.5 bcfd in 2026 and 112.3 bcfd in 2027. Meanwhile, storage data showed U.S. utilities withdrew 132 billion cubic feet of gas in the latest week, pushing total inventories down to 1.886 tcf, though stockpiles remain 6.5% higher than last year. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 6.11% to 20,950 while prices climbed Rs20.1. Natural gas has immediate support at 284.1, with a break below potentially testing 271.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at 303.1, and a move above that level could push prices toward 309.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 271.9-309.9.
* Natural gas gains tracking European benchmarks as the war in Iran continued to threaten natural gas supply.
* Support also seen on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected.
* Strikes between Iran, GCC countries, Israel, and US forces in the region drove Qatar to halt all of its LNG operations.
Copper
Copper prices edged lower in the previous session, settling 0.36% down at 1,203.6, as concerns over global economic growth weighed on sentiment. Rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. Dollar Index added pressure on base metals, prompting some profit booking. At the same time, inflation in China accelerated to its highest level in more than three years, partly driven by seasonal demand during the Lunar New Year period. Supply-side developments also remained in focus. Workers at Glencore’s copper refinery in Townsville, Queensland, have threatened to strike over a pay dispute. The refinery produces up to 300,000 tonnes of copper annually, including material sourced from Olympic Dam, operated by BHP. Meanwhile, inventories continued to build. Copper stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged from 180,543 tonnes in early January to 391,539 tonnes by late February, while high inventories on the London Metal Exchange also weighed on prices. Despite the short-term pressure, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Citigroup expect copper prices to rise significantly over the coming months, supported by tightening supply and steady global demand growth. Meanwhile, Chile, reported exports worth $4.7 billion in February, up 16.3% year-on-year. From a technical perspective, the market is seeing long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.82% to 15,167 while prices declined by Rs4.35. Copper has immediate support at 1,196.5, with a break below potentially testing 1,189.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,211, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,218.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1189.5-1218.5.
* Copper prices dropped amid concerns about global economic growth as a result of soaring oil prices and a firmer dollar.
* Workers at Glencore’s Australian copper refinery in Townsville, Queensland, have threatened to strike from Friday over a pay dispute.
* The Yangshan copper premium, dropped to $20 a ton in late January, the lowest since July 2024.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged slightly lower in the previous session, settling 0.14% down at 325.5, as the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened above 99.10 amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The stronger dollar and concerns about global manufacturing demand kept prices under pressure, although losses remained limited due to tight supply conditions in the physical market. Inventory data showed a mixed picture. Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 7.04% from the previous week, suggesting improved short-term availability. However, broader supply concerns persist due to earlier mine closures and operational disruptions. Meanwhile, China set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly lower than last year’s pace, while the PBOC signaled that it may use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate adjustments to support the economy. On the supply side, production is gradually recovering. The Tara Mine in Ireland, operated by Boliden, has resumed operations after shutting in 2023, while Ivanhoe Mines continues ramping up output at the Kipushi Mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to the ILZSG, the global zinc market recorded a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, although production growth is gradually narrowing the gap. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 9.52% to 3,298 while prices slipped by Rs0.45. Zinc has immediate support at 324, with a break below potentially testing 322.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 327, and a move above that level could push prices toward 328.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 322.4-328.4.
* Zinc prices dropped dollar strengthened above 99.10 amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 7.04% from last Friday, the exchange said.
* China set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a slight downgrade from the 5% pace achieved last year.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices moved higher in the previous session, settling 2.19% up at 344.65, supported by strong gains on the London Metal Exchange, where prices climbed to their highest level in nearly four years above $3,400 per tonne. The rally comes as markets assess how long the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may continue to disrupt global metal supplies. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has interrupted shipments from the Persian Gulf region, which accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminium production. Supply concerns have intensified after Qatalum in Qatar and Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure on shipments. Meanwhile, production growth in China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, is constrained by government-imposed capacity limits of 45 million tonnes, aimed at controlling industrial overcapacity. Demand trends are also supportive. Aluminium consumption continues to expand across emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence infrastructure, energy storage, and solar equipment. The rally on the London Metal Exchange has also pushed the Shanghai Futures Exchange premium to its highest level since April 2022, which could encourage more Chinese exports and help ease global supply tightness. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.29% to 3,250 while prices gained Rs7.4. Aluminium has immediate support at 340.3, with a break below potentially testing 335.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at 347.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward 350.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 335.8-350.8.
* Aluminium gains as two major smelters in Qatar and Bahrain suspended deliveries
* LME prices climbed back to their highest level in nearly four years above $3,400 per tonne.
* The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted shipments from Persian Gulf, which accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum output.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices declined slightly in the previous session, settling 1.02% lower at 14,590, mainly due to expectations of higher arrivals in the coming weeks. Fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are likely to increase significantly over the next 10–15 days, which has put some pressure on prices. Additionally, favourable rainfall during the sowing season has encouraged farmers to expand acreage, raising expectations of higher production. However, the downside remains limited as current arrivals are still below normal and both domestic and international demand remain strong. Reports suggest that farmers and stockists have already reduced their inventories considerably, which may provide a supportive base for prices before the new crop reaches the market in full. Weather disruptions have also affected yields in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka due to unseasonal rains. At the national level, dried turmeric production for the 2026 harvest is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, compared with 82.5 lakh bags last season. Acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Export demand has also remained steady, with shipments during April–December 2025 rising 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes compared to the previous year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.59% to 17,570 while prices dropped by Rs150. Turmeric has immediate support at 14,444, with a break below potentially testing 14,298. On the upside, resistance is seen at 14,818, and a move above this level could push prices toward 15,046.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14298-15046.
* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.
* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15141.8 Rupees gained by 0.27 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices slipped slightly in the previous session, settling 0.44% lower at 22,445, mainly due to the arrival of the new crop in several markets. Arrivals have begun in key producing regions and are expected to pick up momentum from March onward, which has created some near-term pressure on prices. Comfortable supplies and relatively weak export demand, supported by adequate existing stocks, have also weighed on market sentiment. However, the downside remains limited as overall production for the season is expected to decline. Output is estimated to fall by around 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this year. In Gujarat, production is projected to drop sharply by 27% to 1.83 lakh tonnes, largely due to an 18% decline in acreage and an 11% fall in yields. In contrast, Rajasthan is likely to see a 15% increase in production to 3.29 lakh tonnes, supported by higher area and improved yields. Crop conditions remain mixed, with erratic weather and disease issues such as blight affecting yields in some areas. Reports of rising aphid infestation risks in parts of Rajasthan have also raised concerns. Meanwhile, global supply dynamics remain tight as geopolitical disruptions in producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan continue to affect output, though export demand from India has remained subdued. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 8.58% to 4,251 while prices declined by Rs100. Jeera has immediate support at 22,290, with a break below potentially testing 22,130. On the upside, resistance is seen at 22,620, and a move above this level could push prices toward 22,790.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22130-22790.
* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21908.2 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.
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