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Gold

Gold edged higher by 0.16% to settle at Rs151,352, supported primarily by softer crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar. Persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation dynamics continue to underpin safe-haven demand. U.S. inflation accelerated in March, largely driven by rising gasoline prices, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current policy stance for an extended period. Global monetary policy remained broadly accommodative, with major central banks—including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan—holding interest rates steady. The Fed maintained its benchmark rate at 3.5%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting in April 2026. However, dissent within the FOMC emerged, with an 8-4 voting split, reflecting growing internal divergence on future rate direction. On the demand side, India witnessed subdued physical buying due to price volatility and rupee weakness, while Chinese demand strengthened ahead of the May Day holiday, pushing premiums higher. Globally, gold demand rose 2% YoY to 1,230.9 tonnes in Q1 2026, supported by a sharp increase in bar and coin investment and steady central bank purchases, despite a notable 23% decline in jewellery demand. Notably, China led investment demand with a 67% surge in bar and coin purchases. From a supply perspective, London vault holdings rose 1.4% to 9,339 tonnes by March-end. Additionally, China’s regulatory easing on gold trade could further enhance market liquidity. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining marginally by 0.08% to 9,083 contracts while prices gained Rs241. Immediate support is seen at Rs149,990, with further downside toward Rs148,630. Resistance stands at Rs152,460, and a breakout above this level could drive prices toward Rs153,570.

Trading Ideas:

*  Gold trading range for the day is 148630-153570.

*  Gold prices recovered supported by a decline in oil prices and U.S. dollar depreciation.

*  U.S. inflation accelerated in March, reinforcing expectations that Fed could ‌keep interest rates on hold.

*  The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range for a third consecutive meeting in April 2026.

Silver

Silver rallied sharply by 2.65% to settle at Rs250,937, tracking weakness in the dollar index, which slipped to a two-month low amid a strong rebound in the Japanese yen following suspected intervention. Safe-haven demand also remained supported by persistent geopolitical tensions and firm inflation expectations, while broader commodity sentiment improved on currency weakness. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the policy outcome reflected the highest level of dissent since 1992, signaling internal divergence. U.S. inflation accelerated in March alongside resilient economic data, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause in rate cuts. However, market pricing shifted marginally, with the probability of at least one 25 bps rate cut in 2026 rising above 15%. Other major central banks, including the ECB, BoE, and BoJ, also maintained status quo, indicating a synchronized global policy pause. Fundamentally, silver demand saw strong momentum from China, where March imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes—nearly triple the decade-average level. This spike was driven by robust retail investment demand as silver emerged as a cheaper alternative to gold, alongside aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic (PV) sector ahead of policy changes. Elevated domestic premiums in China triggered global arbitrage flows, with Hong Kong acting as a key transit hub. Meanwhile, London vault holdings rose 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, reflecting steady inventory accumulation. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining sharply by 8.18% to 6,994 contracts while prices gained Rs6,481. Immediate support is seen at Rs243,550, with further downside toward Rs236,165. Resistance is placed at Rs256,270, and a sustained breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs261,605.

Trading Ideas:

*  Silver trading range for the day is 236165-261605.

*  Silver gained as dollar index hovered at a two-month low, pressured by a sharp rally in the yen

*  President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade, while postponing nuclear issues.

*  Fed held its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, and the decision saw the highest number of dissents since 1992

Crude oil

Crude oil declined by 2.05% to settle at Rs9,665, pressured by easing geopolitical risk sentiment as hopes of a potential U.S.–Iran ceasefire gained traction. Market participants reacted to indications of renewed diplomatic engagement, which could eventually stabilize supply disruptions. However, underlying concerns about a broader energy crisis persist, as highlighted by the International Energy Agency, citing ongoing strain across global oil and gas markets. Fundamentally, supply dynamics remain tight despite the price correction. U.S. crude production rose to 13.63 million barrels per day in February, marking a multi-month high, while exports surged to a record 6.438 million bpd, driven by reduced Middle Eastern flows amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell sharply by 6.23 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations, alongside substantial draws in gasoline and distillate stocks, indicating robust demand and improving refinery activity. On the demand side, OPEC revised down its global oil demand forecast for Q2 2026 by 500,000 bpd to 105.07 million bpd, citing temporary weakness linked to geopolitical uncertainties. However, the group maintained its full-year demand growth outlook, expecting a rebound in the second half of the year as market conditions stabilize. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, reflected by a 6.26% decline in open interest to 15,344 contracts alongside a price drop of Rs202. Immediate support is seen at Rs9,374, with further downside potential toward Rs9,082. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs10,013, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs10,360.

Trading Ideas:

*  Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9082-10360.

*  Crude oil dropped as hopes grew that a fragile US-Iran ceasefire could lead to lasting peace.

*  IEA head Birol reaffirms that world facing biggest energy crisis in history

*  US crude oil output rose to two – month high in February, EIA says

Natural gas

Natural gas edged higher by 0.53% to settle at Rs264.5, supported by an in-line U.S. storage build, declining domestic production, and near-record LNG export activity. Market sentiment improved as supply tightened modestly, offsetting concerns around elevated inventory levels and softer seasonal demand expectations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 79 Bcf storage injection for the week ended April 24, broadly matching market expectations of an 80 Bcf build. This was notably lower than the previous week’s 103 Bcf injection and below the 105 Bcf addition recorded during the same period last year, indicating a relatively tighter supply-demand balance. Total U.S. gas inventories rose to 2.142 Tcf, standing 5.7% above year-ago levels and 7.7% above the five-year seasonal average. Supply-side fundamentals offered additional support as U.S. dry gas production declined by nearly 2 bcfd over the last five days to a preliminary 12-week low of 107.6 bcfd. Output curtailments by major producers, including EQT, reflected continued discipline amid low-price environments. Meanwhile, LNG feedgas demand remained robust, averaging 18.8 bcfd in April, surpassing the prior monthly record of 18.7 bcfd and reinforcing export-driven demand strength. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. dry gas production to rise to a record 109.6 bcfd in 2026, while domestic consumption is expected to ease to 90.6 bcfd before rebounding in 2027. LNG exports are also forecast to continue expanding. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 3.05% to 27,833 contracts while prices gained Rs1.4. Immediate support is placed at Rs261, followed by Rs257.6. Resistance is seen at Rs268.6, and a breakout above this could extend gains toward Rs272.8.

Trading Ideas:

*  Naturalgas trading range for the day is 257.6-272.8.

*  Natural gas climbed amid an in-line storage injection, a decline in output and near-record LNG exports.

*  EIA reported a 79 Bcf injection into storage and smaller than both previous week

*  Production has weakened further, falling by around 2.0 bcfd over the past five days

Copper

Copper edged higher by 0.13% to settle at Rs1,282.2, supported by stronger macro signals from China, where manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace since late 2020. Additional support came from speculative inflows into base metals and concerns over potential production disruptions linked to sulphuric acid shortages amid ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. On the inventory front, Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declined 4.6% last week and have more than halved since their March peak, reflecting seasonal drawdowns and pre-holiday restocking ahead of China’s Labour Day. However, global inventory trends remain mixed, with LME stocks more than doubling since January and COMEX inventories rising sharply over the past year, indicating ample supply outside China. Fundamentally, the global copper market is shifting toward surplus conditions. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined market surplus of 276,000 tonnes in February, with expectations of a 96,000-tonne surplus for 2026, reversing earlier deficit projections. This outlook reflects slower demand growth and increased secondary supply. Meanwhile, global consumption is projected to grow modestly by 1.6% in 2026, led by China, while supply expansion remains constrained by limited concentrate availability. On the production side, mixed signals persist. Chile’s output declined over 9% year-on-year in March, while Peru posted a 2.9% increase. Major miners reported varied performance, highlighting uneven global supply dynamics. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.99% to 12,099 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs1.65. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,277.2, followed by Rs1,272.1. Resistance is placed at Rs1,287.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs1,292.1.

Trading Ideas:

*  Copper trading range for the day is 1272.1-1292.1.

*  Copper gains as manufacturing activity in China expanded in April at its fastest pace since the end of 2020.

*  LME copper stocks have more than doubled since early January.

*  Copper output in Chile fell 9.04% year-on-year in March.

Zinc

Zinc remained largely flat with a marginal decline of 0.01% to settle at Rs343.4, as gains from tightening near-term supply conditions were offset by broader macro concerns. Sentiment remained cautious amid geopolitical tensions and worries over global economic growth, which weighed on industrial metals despite underlying supportive fundamentals. On the supply side, constraints in raw material availability continued to underpin prices. Falling LME inventories, declining Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks, and a sharp drop in port inventories of zinc concentrate reflect tightening availability. Lower treatment charges (TCs) further signal a squeeze in concentrate supply. Ongoing mine disruptions and closures have reinforced this tightness, although some relief is anticipated from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project, along with the planned resumption of production at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine in Q2. Demand-side dynamics remain mixed. Improving industrial activity in China provided some support, while global uncertainties, particularly tensions in the Middle East, capped upside momentum. Globally, the zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 tonnes in January, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, while forecasts suggest a modest surplus in 2026 driven by increased mine supply. However, supply growth is expected to slow beyond 2027, potentially tightening balances again. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, indicated by a sharp 15.64% rise in open interest to 2,174 contracts alongside a slight price decline. Immediate support is seen at Rs341.4, with further downside toward Rs339.5. Resistance is placed at Rs345.7, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs348.1.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 339.5-348.1.

*  Zinc steadied as Boliden’s plan to resume production at Garpenberg in Q2 helped ease some supply concerns.

*  LME inventories continued to fall, while the narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure.

*  Bank of America lifted its 2026 zinc price forecast by 12.7% to $3,309 a metric ton.

Aluminium

Aluminium gained 0.81% to settle at Rs368.9, supported by robust manufacturing activity in China and persistent supply-side concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strong Chinese macro data, with manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 in April—its fastest expansion since December 2020—reinforced optimism around industrial demand, particularly as new orders and output growth accelerated sharply. On the supply front, concerns remain elevated due to disruptions in the Middle East, especially with continued restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. Although Emirates Global Aluminium’s Jebel Ali smelter has resumed closer-to-normal operations, the broader region continues to face uncertainty. Market participants are increasingly pricing in tighter supply, with financial institutions revising forecasts upward. Bank of America advanced its $4,000/ton price outlook to Q4 2026, while JP Morgan expects a significant 1.9 million ton global deficit driven by supply disruptions, projecting prices could test $4,000 levels in the near term. Physical market indicators also reflect tightening conditions. Japanese port inventories declined by 7.4% to 279,800 tonnes, while premiums surged to an 11-year high of $350–$353 per ton for Q2 shipments, highlighting constrained availability. Meanwhile, China’s aluminium imports rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, supported by supply concerns, even as domestic production increased 2.7%. Globally, primary aluminium output rose 0.9% year-on-year in March, though slightly lower on a daily basis compared to February, indicating marginal production moderation. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest marginally declining by 0.03% to 3,097 contracts while prices rose Rs2.95. Immediate support is seen at Rs367.2, followed by Rs365.6. Resistance is placed at Rs370.1, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs371.4.

Trading Ideas:

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 365.6-371.4.

*  Aluminium gains amid strong manufacturing activity data from China supported the demand backdrop.

*  China General Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.2 in April 2026 from 50.8 in March, above the expected 51.

*  BOFA brought forward its $4,000 per metric ton aluminium price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026 from the second quarter of 2027.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 0.39% to settle at Rs15,932, primarily weighed down by increased arrivals across key mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli. Accelerated farmer selling to meet liquidity needs for upcoming Kharif sowing has created a temporary supply glut, further pressuring prices. Additionally, arrivals of high-moisture, late-harvested turmeric have led to quality-based discounting in the physical market. Despite near-term pressure, downside remains limited due to underlying supply tightness. Arrivals in major producing states like Maharashtra and Telangana are still below normal for the peak season, while quality issues such as rhizome rot have reduced the availability of premium export-grade turmeric. Farmers and stockists in key regions like Sangli and Nizamabad are holding back stocks, anticipating higher price realization, with premium “Salem Fali” varieties trading near Rs20,000 per quintal. Fundamentally, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season’s 20 lakh bags, indicating a tighter supply buffer. Export demand remains steady, with shipments rising 1% year-on-year during April–February 2026, while imports declined sharply by 40%, supporting domestic prices. Additional demand from Bangladesh and increased interest in IPM-certified turmeric from the EU are also lending support. Meanwhile, concerns over a potentially below-normal 2026 monsoon and rising storage losses are contributing to a longer-term bullish outlook. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.43% to 15,830 contracts alongside a price drop of Rs62. Immediate support is seen at Rs15,828, with further downside toward Rs15,722. Resistance is placed at Rs16,044, and a move above this could push prices toward Rs16,154.

Trading Ideas:

*  Turmeric trading range for the day is 15722-16154.

*  Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

*  Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.

*  The absence of fresh weather disruptions during the post-harvest phase has effectively removed the "weather risk premium."

*  In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15576 Rupees gained by 0.01 percent.

Jeera

Jeera declined by 1.14% to settle at Rs20,445, pressured by a surge in fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs. Faster-than-expected harvesting due to favorable weather conditions led to a supply spike, while farmers increased selling to meet liquidity needs for upcoming Kharif sowing, adding consistent downward pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, reinforcing the near-term supply glut. However, downside appears limited due to emerging concerns over crop quality and overall production. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have damaged standing crops at the harvest stage, raising fears of reduced availability of premium “A-grade” produce. Additionally, unseasonal rains disrupted drying and processing, creating temporary supply gaps. The proportion of high-quality “Sortex” grade carryover stocks is also lower compared to last year, supporting premium pricing. Fundamentally, production estimates indicate a significant decline, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags versus 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced acreage and lower yields, particularly in Gujarat. Disease outbreaks such as blight have further impacted crop quality. Globally, lower output expectations in China and stable but limited production in other countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan add to the tightening outlook. On the demand side, export performance remains weak, with shipments down 15% year-on-year during April–February 2026, although monthly exports showed improvement. Anticipation of renewed Chinese buying interest is providing some support to sentiment. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.34% to 7,650 contracts alongside a price drop of Rs235. Immediate support is seen at Rs20,310, with further downside toward Rs20,180. Resistance is placed at Rs20,660, and a move above this could push prices toward Rs20,880.

Trading Ideas:

*  Jeera trading range for the day is 20180-20880.

*  Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased.

*  Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

*  Farmers are actively offloading stocks this week to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season.

*  In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20812.35 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.

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