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Nifty

The broader trend remains weak, with downside risks still dominant. Immediate resistance is placed near 23000, backed by strong OI concentration, while the 23430-zone aligned with a recent gap and the 20 DEMA continues to act as a key supply area. A meaningful reversal would require sustained acceptance above these levels on the weekly timeframe. On the downside, the 22000–21930 zone is expected to serve as an immediate support band, where a technical bounce may emerge. However, if selling pressure persists, the index could gradually drift towards the broader demand zone between 21930 (200 WEMA) and 21620 (200 MEMA), making this region critical for assessing medium-term demand strength. Macros remain a drag on sentiment, with elevated USD/INR, firm crude prices above $90, continued FII outflows, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The broader trading range for the April series is likely to stay between 23500 and 22500 in the near term. From a tactical standpoint, traders should remain flexible. A pullback driven by the 3-point Price–RSI divergence on the daily chart could trigger a short-term recovery. A decisive move above 23000 may open the path towards 23430, where supply is expected to re-emerge. However, the broader bias remains cautious. A breakdown below 22430 would confirm continued weakness, potentially dragging the index towards sub-22000 levels and extending the prevailing downtrend towards 21630

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