U.S. Soybean Prices Drop; Global Stocks Decline in 2024/25 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The USDA’s March report keeps the U.S. soybean supply and use projections unchanged for 2024/25. However, soybean oil exports are up, while biofuel usage declines. The season-average soybean price is revised down by 15 cents to $9.95 per bushel, while soybean meal and oil prices remain steady. Globally, soybean production remains nearly unchanged, with higher crush estimates, especially in China, Argentina, and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are lowered to 121.4 million tons due to reduced stocks in China and Argentina. Meanwhile, high-oil content seed production (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is raised slightly but remains 5% below 2023/24 levels. Increased production in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia offsets declines in South Africa.
Key Highlights
# U.S. soybean price forecast drops 15 cents to $9.95 per bushel.
# Soybean oil exports rise, while biofuel usage declines.
# Global soybean ending stocks lowered to 121.4 million tons.
# China’s soybean crush increased by 2 million tons to 105 million.
# Sunflowerseed and rapeseed production rises but remains below 2023/24.
The USDA’s latest report keeps U.S. soybean supply and use projections steady but revises the price outlook. The season-average soybean price is now projected at $9.95 per bushel, reflecting a 15-cent decline from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices remain unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively. Additionally, while soybean oil exports have increased, domestic use for biofuel has declined, impacting the overall balance sheet.
Globally, soybean production forecasts remain nearly unchanged, but higher crush estimates lead to reduced ending stocks. China’s soybean crush is raised by 2 million tons to 105 million, driven by strong demand. Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine, and Pakistan also see higher crush estimates. This results in a 2.9 million-ton reduction in global ending stocks, bringing them down to 121.4 million tons, mainly due to lower reserves in China and Argentina.
Another key development is the rise in high-oil content seed production. Sunflowerseed production increases in Russia and Ukraine, while rapeseed production grows in Australia and Ukraine. Despite this, total output remains 5% lower than in 2023/24, highlighting potential supply constraints.
Finally
The soybean market faces a mixed outlook with falling U.S. prices, rising global crush, and tightening stocks. While oilseed production improves, overall supply remains lower than last year, keeping markets volatile.
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