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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 13th Aug 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Spot gold closed with modest gains on Tuesday, supported by a weaker US dollar, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and remarks by  President Trump challenging the Fed’s independence. The US headline CPI held steady at 2.7% in July, slightly below the 2.8% forecast, while core CPI edged higher to 3.1%, signaling limited tariff-related inflationary pressure. The slightly softer-than-expected headline inflation reading reinforced market expectations of monetary easing, pushing the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September to 94%, up from 85% before the data release. Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for delaying rate cuts and even threatened legal action. Today, spot gold is trading steady near $3,350 as traders await speeches from several Fed officials, along with US PPI and retail sales data, for further clues on the monetary policy outlook.

WTI crude oil futures slipped to $63.1 per barrel yesterday as traders turned cautious ahead of the EIA inventory report, amid signs that peak summer demand in the US may be fading. Adding to the bearish tone, the EIA projects Brent crude prices will fall from $71 per barrel in July to an average of $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, and decline further toward $50 by early 2026, citing aggressive supply growth from OPEC+. Separately, the US Department of Energy increased its forecast for global oil oversupply in 2025 to 1.7 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC+ raised its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day, now expecting a rise of 1.38 million bpd, driven by stronger economic prospects in OECD America, OECD Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Today, oil prices remain under pressure, with WTI trading near $63 per barrel, after the API reported an unexpected build of 1.5 million barrels in US crude inventories for the week ending August 8.