U.S. Cotton Stocks Tighten as Global Consumption Strengthens by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The USDA’s August 2026/27 U.S. cotton outlook points to lower production and ending stocks, while beginning stocks, consumption and exports remain unchanged. U.S. cotton production is forecast at 13.61 million bales, down over 90,000 from July, as higher harvested area is offset by a lower national yield of 798 pounds per acre. Ending stocks fall to 4.00 million bales, with the stocks-to-use ratio at 28.8%. The season-average farm price rises 2 cents to 75 cents per pound. Globally, consumption increases nearly 1 million bales to 122.9 million, reducing ending stocks by over 1.5 million bales to 69.7 million.
Key Highlights
- U.S. 2026/27 cotton production falls over 90,000 bales to 13.61 million on lower yields.
- U.S. ending stocks decline to 4.00 million bales, cutting the stocks-to-use ratio to 28.8%.
- U.S. season-average cotton price rises 2 cents to 75 cents per pound.
- Global cotton consumption increases nearly 1 million bales to 122.9 million on stronger mill use.
- Global ending stocks fall over 1.5 million bales to 69.7 million, lowering stocks-to-use ratio to 56.7%.
U.S. cotton prices are likely to retain a firm undertone as the August USDA balance sheet points to lower production and tighter ending stocks. U.S. 2026/27 all-cotton production is forecast at 13.61 million bales, more than 90,000 bales below the July estimate and nearly 300,000 bales below the 2025/26 crop. Although planted area is raised by more than 600,000 acres to 10.47 million, higher harvested area is offset by a lower national yield.
Harvested area is increased to 8.19 million acres, more than 8% above last month, while the national average yield is reduced by 74 pounds to 798 pounds per harvested acre. The smaller crop lowers projected ending stocks to 4.00 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 28.8%. Reflecting the tighter balance sheet, the 2026/27 season-average farm price is raised 2 cents to 75 cents per pound.
The global outlook is also supportive from a demand perspective. World cotton supply is reduced by nearly 550,000 bales as lower beginning stocks more than offset higher production. Global output rises over 370,000 bales to 117.6 million, led by larger crops in Brazil, Greece and Turkey, while U.S. production declines.
Global consumption increases nearly 1 million bales to 122.9 million, driven by stronger mill use in China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia. World trade rises nearly 500,000 bales to 43.8 million, supported by higher Brazilian exports and increased imports by India, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Consequently, global 2026/27 ending stocks decline by more than 1.5 million bales to 69.7 million, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 56.7%. The 2025/26 balance sheet also shows stronger consumption and exports, resulting in a reduction of more than 900,000 bales in ending stocks.
Lower U.S. production, tighter stocks and stronger global mill demand create a constructive cotton outlook, supporting prices despite higher global output.
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