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The Week That Was

• Gold prices declined for the week as rising oil prices outweighed a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields. Markets assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook following September’s U.S. CPI report, which showed headline and core inflation rising 3.7% and 2.6% YoY, respectively, with energy prices surging 20.4%.

• Silver prices cracked lower by more than 6 percent in the last session as surging yields and dollar dampened the sentiment of the precious metals. The stronger-than-expected US inflation prompted investors to reassess the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.US inflation climbed to 3.7% year-on-year in September, above forecasts of 3.6%, driven by higher energy prices.Monthly CPI rose 0.6%, its largest increase in five months, while core inflation also exceeded expectations, reaching 2.6% annually and 0.3% monthly.

• WTI crude oil surged above $100 per barrel, gaining more than 11% for the week amid tightening supplies and strong shipping fuel demand. Iranian strikes on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil flows, with average daily shipments falling to 11.6 Mn barrels in the week ended on 13th October, compared with a baseline of 17.15 Mn barrels.

• Copper futures rose toward $6.60 per pound, ending a three-session losing streak as a weaker U.S. dollar supported demand. However, concerns over a potential slowdown in AI-related investment remained in focus, while labour strikes and adverse weather conditions in Chile disrupted mining operations and tightened supply.

• U.S. natural gas prices dropped more than 3% to $3.11 per Mn British thermal units on Friday, their lowest level in over a week. Prices were down around 3% for the week, following a 6% gain the previous week. Average production across the Lower 48 states reached 110.8 Bn cubic feet per day (bcfd) in October, below August and September records of 113.3 bcfd. Recent disruptions linked to Hurricane Isaias, Gulf of Mexico shutdowns and pipeline problems contributed to the decline. LSEG expects demand, including exports, to rise from 103.87 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd over the following two weeks as colder weather arrives.

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold declined by more than 2% last week, forming a bearish technical pattern. Prices breached the key support at Rs 1,46,500 but managed to close above this level. The overall trend remains weak, with a sell-on-rise strategy preferred. The weekly RSI is trading at 47 and forming lower lows, indicating weakening momentum. A breakdown below Rs 1,45,500 could drag prices towards Rs 1,35,000/1,30,000 in the coming days, while strong resistance stands at Rs 1,52,000.

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Gold below Rs 1,45,500 with a stoploss above Rs 1,52,000 and targets of Rs 1,35,000 and Rs 1,30,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,48,000.

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver fell more than 6% last week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline and reinforcing the bearish technical setup. The overall trend remains weak, with further downside likely. The weekly RSI is trading at 41, indicating continued bearish momentum. A breakdown below Rs 2,07,000 could drag prices towards Rs 1,90,000/1,80,000 in the coming days, while strong resistance stands at Rs 2,30,000.

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Silver below Rs 2,07,000, with a stop-loss above Rs 2,20,000 and targets of Rs 1,90,000 and Rs 1,80,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,11,418.

MCX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude Oil gained nearly 8% last week, ending firmly higher after four consecutive weeks of losses. The daily RSI is trading at 63, indicating improving bullish momentum. The overall trend has turned positive, with strong resistance at Rs 9,700. A sustained breakout above this level could push prices towards Rs 11,000/11,500 in the coming days, while strong support stands at Rs 8,350.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 9,700, with a stop-loss below Rs 8,900 and targets of Rs 11,000 and Rs 11,500.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 9,572

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper declined nearly 2% last week and continues to face strong resistance at Rs 1,435, which prices have repeatedly failed to breach. Despite this weakness, the broader trend remains positive, with prices maintaining a higher-highs and higher-lows formation. However, the RSI is trading at 63 and forming lower lows, indicating a potential bearish divergence and weakening momentum. A sustained breakout above Rs 1,435 could lift prices towards Rs 1,480/1,510, while strong support stands at Rs 1,350.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 1,435 with a stoploss below Rs 1,405 and targets of Rs 1,480 and Rs 1,510.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,402.

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