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Gold

Gold settled 0.29% higher at Rs 147,918, supported by a softer dollar as investors assessed the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signalling the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting, while stating that stronger-than-expected inflation had not changed his assessment of the US economy. Traders largely expect rates to remain unchanged this month, while pricing in a 91% probability of a rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. US producer prices recorded their largest increase in four and a half years in September, following an acceleration in consumer inflation, highlighting broadening price pressures. Meanwhile, several Indian mutual funds suspended bulk subscriptions to gold ETF fund of funds. Gold traded at a premium of up to $7 per ounce in India, reversing discounts of up to $6 last week, as lower prices boosted jewellery demand. However, India's gold imports plunged to $1.8 billion in September from $9.6 billion a year earlier. China's central bank extended its gold buying streak to 23 consecutive months, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces at the end of September from 76.73 million ounces in August, although the value of its gold reserves declined to $323.52 billion from $350.08 billion. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 1.96% month on month to 9,821 tonnes. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as a key structural driver, while warning that a more hawkish Fed could trigger a correction toward $4,070 before a recovery to $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, gold is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.15% to 16,717 contracts while prices increased by Rs 429. Support is placed at Rs 147,350, followed by Rs 146,780, while resistance is seen at Rs 148,660. A sustained move above this resistance could push prices toward Rs 149,400.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 146780-149400.

• Gold edged up as a softer dollar lent support, while market participants focused on Fed’s future policy trajectory

• Fed's Warsh sees US resilience, mum on rate-path view

• US producer prices post largest gain in 4-1/2 years

• Several large Indian mutual funds issued public notices suspending bulk subscriptions to gold exchange-traded funds.

Silver

Silver settled 0.25% higher at Rs 211,187, supported by a weaker dollar, which fell to 101.6, its lowest level in two weeks, amid concerns over artificial intelligence spending and a high interest rate environment that weighed on investor sentiment and bond yields. Stronger than expected US consumer and producer inflation readings reinforced concerns about persistent price pressures. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the latest inflation data as discouraging, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that the central bank might need more aggressive rate hikes if inflation expectations deteriorate significantly. Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signalling the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting, leaving traders focused on the future monetary policy trajectory. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.95% month on month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September, valued at $56.6 billion. According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the silver market is heading towards its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit, with cumulative stock drawdowns reaching 762 million ounces since 2021. The global silver deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite a 2% decline in total demand. Industrial silver fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four year low amid weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by recovering US investment demand. Total global supply is projected to decline 2%, potentially tightening market conditions despite improved liquidity in London. Silver prices remain 35% below their January record of $121.6 per ounce following the sharp rally in 2025. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 1.78% to 20,056 contracts while prices increased by Rs 527. Support is placed at Rs 209,930, followed by Rs 208,670, while resistance is seen at Rs 213,220. A sustained move above this resistance could push prices towards Rs 215,250.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 208670-215250.

• Silver rose as dollar fell to 101.6, its lowest level in two weeks.

• Fed’s Goolsbee said that data this week showing stronger-than-expected consumer and producer price inflation has been "discouraging."

• Fed’s Hammack said the Fed might need to hike interest rates more aggressively if there were to be a ‌notable deterioration in the public’s inflation expectations.

• Traders largely expect the US central bank to hold rates steady this month, while pricing in a 91% chance of a rate hike in December.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 2.36% higher at Rs 9,394, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a larger than expected drawdown in US crude inventories, although the International Energy Agency's planned release of additional fuel supplies weighed on diesel margins. Supply concerns intensified as attacks around the Strait of Hormuz increased, with Iran escalating strikes in response to the US blockade of its ports and tighter sanctions. The sinking of the Singapore flagged vessel GFS Pride following an Iranian projectile strike further heightened concerns over physical oil flows, although more than 40 vessels transited the strategic waterway over the previous 24 hours. IEA members pledged to release the remaining 100 million barrels from their emergency intervention launched in March. US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories fell by 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels in the week ended October 9, far exceeding expectations for a 288,000 barrel decline. Distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels to 102.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks increased by 3.5 million barrels to 208.3 million barrels. Refinery utilisation rose 0.8 percentage points to 93.5%, and net crude imports declined by 596,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive time to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, while raising its outlook for 2027 as depleted inventories are expected to require rebuilding. OPEC also reported higher September production across the wider OPEC plus group, led by increased Saudi output. The IEA reported Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, while crude exports increased to 5.3 million barrels per day. However, Ukrainian strikes continued to disrupt Russian refining operations. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 7.3% to 11,361 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs 217. Support is placed at Rs 9,170, followed by Rs 8,950, while resistance is seen at Rs 9,520. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 9,650.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8950-9650.

• Crude oil gains on uncertainty over Middle East supplies and a larger-than-expected draw from US crude ‌stockpiles.

• Supply concerns also increased as attacks around the Strait of Hormuz surged over the past 10 days.

• US crude inventories fell by 8.557 mbls, most since February and well above market expectations for a 0.3 mbl draw.

• IEA members pledged to release the remaining 100 million barrels from an emergency intervention launched in March.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.42% lower at Rs 298.6, pressured by continued mild weather, forecasts for weaker than previously expected demand, and a slight recovery in production. According to LSEG, average natural gas output across the US Lower 48 states declined from record highs of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September to 110.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, mainly due to Gulf of Mexico production disruptions and pipeline issues. However, average gas demand, including exports, is expected to increase from 103.87 billion cubic feet per day this week to 106.8 billion cubic feet per day over the following two weeks as colder weather approaches. Average gas flows to major US liquefied natural gas export plants declined to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September, although daily feedgas flows were expected to reach a five month high of 18.9 billion cubic feet per day. US natural gas inventories increased by 67 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 9, below market expectations of 76 billion cubic feet and the previous week's 85 billion cubic feet injection. Total storage rose to 3.567 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.9% below year ago levels but 1.3% above the five year seasonal average. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast to reach 92.4 billion and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. LNG exports are expected to increase to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing stronger production growth and a more comfortable supply demand balance. The bank expects supply to exceed demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day, reinforcing the medium term bearish outlook. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing 47.26% to 46,925 contracts while prices declined by Rs 7.4. Support is placed at Rs 291, followed by Rs 283.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 306.50. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 315.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 283.50-315.00.

• Natural gas fell on continued mild weather, forecasts for less demand, and small increase in output in recent days.

• Output eased from August-September records after storm-related shut-ins and pipeline disruptions

• Golden Pass feedgas hit a record 0.7 bcfd; Sabine Pass reached four-month high

• European and Asian benchmarks climbed near $29 per mmBtu

Copper

Copper settled 0.16% higher at Rs 1,401, supported by a weaker US dollar amid concerns over a potential slowdown in artificial intelligence capital expenditure that has supported the US economy and financial markets. Supply concerns eased after BHP and the supervisors' union at Chile's Escondida mine agreed to a 36 month labour contract, averting a strike at the world's largest copper mine. Meanwhile, copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 25.9% from the previous Friday, indicating improving near term availability. China's copper imports rose 20.7% month on month to 461,000 tonnes in September, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined 6.7% year on year to 3.30 million tonnes during January to August. In Chile, Codelco's copper production increased nearly 9% year on year to 101,700 tonnes in August, whereas Escondida's output declined 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi's production fell 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. Antofagasta reported a 7% increase in third quarter copper production and maintained its annual guidance despite labour disruptions at Centinela. The International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus through 2027, with the surplus projected to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027. Refined copper production is forecast to grow 0.4% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, supported by expanding smelting and refining capacity in Indonesia, India and the European Union. Meanwhile, apparent refined copper usage is expected to increase 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, supported by manufacturing activity, electrification, urbanisation, digitalisation and artificial intelligence infrastructure demand. Global mine production is projected to rise 1.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.89% to 6,773 contracts while prices increased by Rs 2.2. Support is placed at Rs 1,395.50, followed by Rs 1,390.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 1,408. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 1,415.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1390.50-1415.50.

• Copper gained as the US dollar weakened amid concerns over a potential slowdown in the AI capital expenditure boom.

• Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 25.9% from last Friday.

• BHP and the supervisors’ union at Chile’s Escondida mine agreed a 36-month labour contract, averting a strike.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.78% higher at Rs 417.85, supported by tightness in nearby supply, as London Metal Exchange cash contracts traded at a premium to three month contracts. However, gains were capped by expectations of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability as mines resume operations following accidents and safety inspections. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.5% from the previous Friday, providing additional support. Supply concerns persist in Western markets, where refined zinc production fell 3.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 amid elevated energy costs and limited raw material availability. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss making Budel smelter in the Netherlands has raised further concerns about potential production losses. Meanwhile, China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September. In contrast, Mitsui Kinzoku plans to increase refined zinc production to 117,700 tonnes in the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% from a year earlier. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, as production increased 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes while demand rose 0.56% to 1.177 million tonnes, recovering after three consecutive months of contraction. However, global zinc mine production declined 8% year on year to approximately 995,000 tonnes in July, marking the fifth consecutive monthly contraction and the steepest decline since May 2024. China's net imports of refined zinc plunged 79% year on year to 38,000 tonnes during January to June, reflecting increased domestic smelting capacity and progress towards self sufficiency in refined metal. Technically, zinc is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 7.24% to 1,831 contracts while prices increased by Rs 3.25. Support is placed at Rs 416, followed by Rs 414, while resistance is seen at Rs 420. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 421.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 414.00-421.50.

• Zinc prices gained as LME cash contracts trading at a premium to three-month contracts, tightness for nearby supply.

• Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange 1.5% from last Friday, the exchange said.

• However upside was capped weighed down by the prospect of increased Chinese zinc concentrate availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.62% higher at Rs 324.95, supported by declining inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange, although expectations of rising global supply capped the upside. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 11% from the previous Friday, while LME opening stocks declined to 238,375 tonnes, their lowest level of the 21st century, indicating tightness in available supplies. However, the global aluminium market is expected to shift into a surplus in 2027, potentially exceeding 1 million tonnes, as additional capacity comes online in Indonesia and Gulf smelters gradually restore production. China is expected to produce 45.7 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2027, up 0.9% year on year, while approximately 6 million tonnes of annual smelting capacity is expected to be added outside China between 2026 and 2028. Indonesian exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year, helping offset supply disruptions from the Gulf. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October to December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting improving supply availability. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production declined 1.5% year on year in August, while Chinese output increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes. Production in the Gulf Cooperation Council fell 43% year on year to 299,000 tonnes, highlighting the continuing impact of regional disruptions. Meanwhile, Macquarie reduced its estimate of the 2026 global aluminium deficit to 820,000 tonnes, citing faster than expected restarts in the Middle East, and forecast average prices of $3,050 per tonne in 2027 compared with $3,325 in 2026. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.03% to 3,958 contracts while prices increased by Rs 2. Support is placed at Rs 323, followed by Rs 321.50, while resistance is seen at Rs 327. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 328.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 321.50-328.50.

• Aluminium gained as inventories in SHFE warehouses fell 11% from last Friday.

• Aluminium is expected to swing into a surplus in 2027, potentially of more than 1 million metric tons

• Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain operations gradually recovered.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 3.99% higher at Rs 25,328, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability as holders withheld stocks following earlier liquidation. Concerns over El Nino related weather risks and deficient rainfall during critical crop development stages further strengthened prices, particularly amid declining carryforward inventories. Karnataka's joint drought survey reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs 18,824 lakh, against a total cultivation area of approximately 18,000 to 20,000 hectares in the state. Industry estimates indicate carryforward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the supply buffer. However, expectations of improved production remain a limiting factor, with Indian turmeric output projected to increase around 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop damage concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, although traders remain cautious about whether favourable weather will sustain yields. Export demand remains mixed, as India's turmeric exports declined 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April to July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes last year, supported by strong demand from Turkey, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. Growing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European Union buyers is also supporting compliant stocks, although stricter residue requirements are pressuring non-compliant commercial grades. In the Nizamabad spot market, prices declined 0.11% to Rs 22,803.30, indicating weaker physical market sentiment despite the sharp futures rally. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 4.38% to 17,645 contracts while prices rose by Rs 972. Support is placed at Rs 24,510, followed by Rs 23,700, while resistance is seen at Rs 25,820. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 26,320.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 23700-26320.

• Turmeric gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling, getting support from tight spot supply.

• Pressure was there amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22803.3 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.25% higher at Rs 27,145, supported by tightening supplies of premium quality bold seeds, expectations of lower domestic production and continued firmness in nearby futures contracts. Farmers have been holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period, while declining arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have reinforced supply concerns. Export demand from European and North American buyers has improved, particularly for residue compliant and high specification lots, although geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect trade flows. However, gains remained limited as farmers liquidated stocks to generate cash for the upcoming sowing season, while rising NCDEX warehouse inventories reduced immediate procurement urgency. Large spice processors continued hand to mouth buying, avoiding aggressive bulk purchases amid uncertain price direction. Blight outbreaks in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and harvestable quantities, while expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria are weighing on Indian export premiums. Domestic cumin production is estimated at 90 to 92 lakh bags this season, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is projected at 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan output is estimated at 48 to 50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has reportedly reduced China's production estimates to 70,000 to 80,000 tonnes, while Syria's output is estimated at 9,000 to 10,000 tonnes, Turkey's at 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes and Afghanistan's at 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes. These production estimates suggest a potentially tighter global supply situation, although export demand and competing origins remain important price determinants. In the Unjha spot market, prices declined 0.3% to Rs 26,254.85, indicating weaker immediate physical market sentiment despite futures gains. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 3.78% to 9,477 contracts while prices rose by Rs 335. Support is placed at Rs 26,650, followed by Rs 26,160, while resistance is seen at Rs 27,420. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 27,690.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 26160-27690.

• Jeera gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26254.85 Rupees dropped by 0.3 percent.

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