U.S. Cotton Production Rises as Global Supply Outlook Improves by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The July 2026/27 cotton outlook projects higher U.S. production and ending stocks, driven by increased planted acreage and improved yield expectations. U.S. cotton output is forecast at 13.7 million bales, while ending stocks rise to 4.1 million bales, keeping the season-average price unchanged at 73 cents per pound. Globally, cotton production is expected to increase to 117.3 million bales, led by larger crops in Brazil, the United States, Turkey, and Central Asia. Although global consumption is revised slightly higher, supply growth outpaces demand, resulting in increased world ending stocks. Meanwhile, 2025/26 global ending stocks decline due to lower Brazilian production.
Key Highlights
- U.S. cotton production for 2026/27 increased to 13.7 million bales.
- Higher acreage and improved yields lifted U.S. ending stocks to 4.1 million bales.
- Global cotton production is projected to reach 117.3 million bales.
- World cotton consumption increased slightly but remains below production growth.
- Larger global supplies are expected to keep cotton prices under pressure.
The July USDA cotton outlook indicates a more comfortable supply outlook for the 2026/27 season as higher production forecasts in both the United States and globally continue to outweigh modest improvements in demand. The increase in available supplies is expected to keep market sentiment cautious despite steady consumption growth.
U.S. cotton production has been revised higher to 13.7 million bales, an increase of 400,000 bales from the previous forecast. The upward revision reflects higher planted acreage reported in the June Acreage survey, along with improved yield expectations due to increased cultivation in the Southeast and Delta regions. Harvested area is also projected to rise, leading to higher ending stocks of 4.1 million bales. Despite the larger crop, domestic consumption, exports, and imports remain unchanged, while the season-average farm price is maintained at 73 cents per pound.
On the global front, cotton production for 2026/27 is forecast to rise to 117.3 million bales as larger harvests are expected from Brazil, the United States, Turkey, and Central Asia. Global consumption has been revised slightly higher to 122.0 million bales, supported mainly by stronger mill demand in Vietnam. However, the increase in production exceeds consumption growth, resulting in a modest rise in world ending stocks to 71.2 million bales and a stocks-to-use ratio of 58.4%.
For the 2025/26 season, world cotton production has been reduced due to a smaller Brazilian crop, while global ending stocks have declined modestly. Nevertheless, the larger production outlook for the upcoming season suggests that ample global supplies are likely to dominate market fundamentals.
Higher production in the United States and globally is expected to maintain ample cotton supplies, limiting price upside despite steady demand growth and tighter ending stocks in 2025/26.
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