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The USDA’s June update for the 2025/26 wheat outlook suggests mixed trends for both U.S. and global markets. U.S. wheat supplies are slightly higher due to marginal production gains, particularly in Soft Red and White Winter wheat, while Hard Red Winter sees a decline. Exports are expected to improve with strong early sales, particularly for HRW, leading to lower ending stocks. Globally, wheat supplies are reduced due to lower beginning stocks in Russia despite increased output in the EU and India. Higher consumption and trade expectations further tighten global stocks. The U.S. farm price is revised up by $0.10 to $5.40/bushel.

Key Highlights

* U.S. wheat production rises slightly to 1,921 million bushels.

* U.S. exports increase by 25 million bushels, mainly from HRW sales.

* U.S. ending stocks fall to 898 million bushels, 7% above last year.

* Global wheat stocks down 3.0 million tons on lower Russian inventories.

* Season-average U.S. farm price revised up to $5.40/bushel.

Wheat prices in the U.S. saw upward support this month as the USDA raised its season-average farm price by $0.10 to $5.40 per bushel for 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by strong early export sales, particularly for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat. Despite only a marginal rise in total production to 1,921 million bushels, with gains in Soft Red Winter and White Winter wheat balancing losses in HRW, the export optimism has positively impacted price sentiment.

The yield estimate remains virtually unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre, suggesting that output increases are acreage-driven rather than yield-based. While domestic consumption is unchanged, exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 825 million, reflecting robust international demand. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are now projected at 898 million bushels, a reduction of 25 million from last month, but still 7% higher than the previous year.

Globally, the wheat outlook presents a tightening scenario. Supplies are projected lower at 1,072.6 million tons, driven by reduced beginning stocks in Russia. Though the EU and India have increased their output, including India’s record estimate of 117.5 million tons, it hasn’t been enough to offset declines elsewhere. Consumption is on the rise, particularly in Nigeria, Sudan, and India, pushing global use to 809.8 million tons. With trade volumes expanding—thanks to stronger exports from the U.S. and EU—global ending stocks are now pegged at 262.8 million tons, 3.0 million lower than earlier projections.

Finally

Strong U.S. exports and tightening global stocks are expected to keep wheat prices firm heading into the 2025/26 season, despite only modest gains in production.

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