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Gold

Gold settled sharply higher by 2.71% at Rs. 143,234, supported by a weaker US dollar as Democrats secured early victories in the US midterm elections, increasing political uncertainty and weighing on the greenback. Investors are now awaiting US non-farm payrolls data for further clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, with markets pricing in a 78% probability of a December rate hike, which could limit bullion's upside as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty persisted as Iran and the US remained far from reaching an agreement to end their conflict, while Trump declined to rule out resuming military operations. On the demand front, the World Gold Council reduced its 2026 global investment demand growth forecast to 200 tons from 400 tons, citing slower bar and coin purchases, which declined 19% year-on-year to 268 tons in the third quarter, while jewellery demand fell 17% to 313 tons. However, physically backed gold ETFs recorded strong third-quarter inflows of 211 tons, while central bank purchases increased 42% to 321 tons, the highest quarterly level since the fourth quarter of 2024. The WGC raised its 2026 central bank demand forecast, expecting purchases to at least match 2025 levels of 848 tons. In India, gold demand is projected to decline to around 650 tons in 2026, the lowest since 2020, as elevated prices and rural economic weakness weigh on consumption. Indian demand fell 29% year-on-year to 162.5 tons in the September quarter. Physical demand across major Asian markets also remained subdued. Meanwhile, London's gold vault holdings increased 1.96% month-on-month to 9,821 tons at the end of September 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 1.15% to 16,095 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 3,782. Gold is getting support at Rs. 140,470, below which prices could test Rs. 137,700, while resistance is placed at Rs. 144,710. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 146,190.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 137700-146190.

• Gold prices rose supported by a softer US dollar after Democrats scored early wins in the US midterm elections.

• Investors awaited the non-farm payrolls data later this week for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.

• Iran and the United States are still far from a deal to end their war, a senior Iranian official told.

• India's gold demand is expected to fall to a six-year low in 2026

Silver

Silver settled sharply higher by 4.47% at Rs. 187,735, supported by a weaker US dollar and declining Treasury yields as early US midterm election results indicated gains for Democrats in both chambers of Congress, raising expectations of political gridlock and potentially limiting further fiscal expansion. Easing crude oil prices amid hopes of continued US-Iran diplomatic efforts also helped reduce inflation concerns, although geopolitical tensions remained elevated as both countries were far from reaching an agreement. Investors are now focused on Friday's US non-farm payrolls report for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, while markets are pricing in a 78% probability of a December rate hike, which could restrict further gains in non-yielding precious metals. On the supply-demand front, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus projected that the global silver market would record its sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Around 762 million ounces have been drawn from global stocks since 2021, highlighting persistent structural supply tightness despite improving market liquidity. Total silver demand is expected to decline 2% in 2026, reflecting weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, while industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low. However, coin and bar demand is projected to increase 18%, supported by recovering investment interest in the US. Global silver supply is also expected to decline 2%, reinforcing the underlying deficit. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tons at the end of September 2026, valued at $56.6 billion. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.86% to 17,143 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs. 8,037, indicating the formation of fresh bullish positions. Silver is getting support at Rs. 180,890, below which prices could test Rs. 174,050, while resistance is placed at Rs. 191,290. A sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 194,850.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 174050-194850.

• Silver prices edged higher supported by a weaker US dollar and falling Treasury yields.

• Markets interpreted the results as potentially increasing the likelihood of political gridlock in Washington and limiting prospects for further fiscal expansion.

• President Donald Trump declined to rule out renewed US military operations following the elections.

• Markets currently price in a 78% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled sharply lower by 8.13% at Rs. 8,364 as investors assessed the geopolitical outlook following the US midterm elections, which resulted in President Donald Trump's Republican Party losing control of Congress. Uncertainty over Washington's next move in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran weighed on prices, while Trump indicated that the US had no immediate plans to strike Iran. However, geopolitical risks remained elevated as Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed that four oil tankers had sunk after striking mines near the Strait of Hormuz, while two other vessels were detained. On the inventory front, US crude stocks showed mixed signals. The EIA reported a decline of 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended October 30, against market expectations for an increase of 877,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels to 209 million barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%, while crude production remained elevated at 13.992 million barrels per day. Separately, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive time to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day earlier, citing weaker demand conditions, but expects deferred consumption to support stronger growth in 2027 as countries rebuild depleted inventories. OPEC also reported a significant increase in September production by the wider OPEC+ group, led by higher Saudi Arabian output. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although it remained below year-ago levels. Russian crude exports rose to 5.3 million barrels per day, while refinery operations remained constrained by ongoing disruptions. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, as open interest increased 1.98% to 10,127 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 740, indicating the formation of fresh bearish positions. Crude oil is getting support at Rs. 8,000, below which prices could test Rs. 7,635, while resistance is placed at Rs. 8,960. A sustained move above this level could trigger recovery towards Rs. 9,555.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 7635-9555.

• Crude oil fell as investors awaited next move in US-Israeli ‌war with Iran after President Trump's Party lost control of Congress.

• Trump told the Financial ‌Times that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran.

• Iran's IRGC said four oil tankers sank after striking mines south of the Strait of Hormuz and two other vessels were detained.

• US crude oil inventories fell by 5.267 million barrels, following a 2.031 million-barrel decline in the previous week - API

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 2.8% at Rs. 282.30, supported by a recent decline in US natural gas production, with average output across the Lower 48 states falling to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in November from 113.4 bcfd in October and a record 115.0 bcfd in August. Daily production was also on track to decline to a five-month low of 108.1 bcfd, providing near-term support to prices. However, comfortable storage levels and expectations of continued supply growth limited the upside. US energy companies added 80 billion cubic feet of natural gas to storage during the week ended October 23, exceeding market expectations of 75 bcf, lifting total inventories to 3.724 trillion cubic feet, 3.8% below year-ago levels but 1% above the five-year average. The EIA projected US dry gas production to increase to 112.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.1 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to reach 92.4 bcfd and 93.8 bcfd, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to rise to 17.6 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, potentially supporting demand. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 NYMEX natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and expectations that US supply growth will exceed demand growth by more than 2 bcfd. The bank expects the market to remain comfortably supplied in the near term, indicating a bearish medium-term outlook. Meanwhile, average gas flows to major US LNG export terminals declined to 17.7 bcfd in November from 18.4 bcfd in October, adding to near-term demand concerns. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 4.51% to 51,912 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 7.70, indicating that the recovery was driven primarily by the covering of existing short positions. Natural gas is getting support at Rs. 274.50, below which prices could test Rs. 266.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 287.00. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 291.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 266.50-291.50.

• Natural gas edged up on a drop in output in recent days.

• Daily output is on track to fall to a five-month low of 108.1 bcfd on Tuesday

• Storage surplus likely widened to 1.4% above five-year norm before EIA report

• Mild weather through Nov. 18 is expected to suppress near-term heating demand

Copper

Copper settled marginally higher by 0.19% at Rs. 1,368.05, supported by growing supply concerns after Chilean copper production dropped to its lowest level in at least two decades during the third quarter. However, gains remained limited by renewed selling in technology stocks amid concerns over elevated artificial intelligence valuations and expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in December. On the supply front, Chile's copper commission Cochilco sharply reduced its 2026 production forecast, expecting output to decline 8.4% to 4.94 million metric tons against its previous estimate of 5.27 million tons, while forecasting a modest 3% recovery in 2027. Cochilco also raised its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 for 2027, citing constrained mine supply and limited capacity to absorb production disruptions. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 metric tons in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tons in July, taking the cumulative surplus during the first eight months to 218,000 tons. The ICSG expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus, with the surplus projected to widen from 104,000 tons in 2026 to 368,000 tons in 2027, supported by rising mine and refined production. However, demand fundamentals remain supportive, with apparent refined copper consumption expected to increase 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, driven by electrification, renewable energy, digitalisation, data centres and semiconductor manufacturing. China's copper imports increased 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tons in September, while the Yangshan copper premium remained near $200 per ton, indicating strong demand for imported metal. Additionally, inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses declined more than 75% over the past six months, highlighting tightening available supplies. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased 0.49% to 6,420 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 2.65, indicating the formation of fresh bullish positions. Copper is getting support at Rs. 1,348, below which prices could test Rs. 1,328.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 1,381. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 1,394.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1328.50-1394.00.

• Copper gained as copper output in Chile, dropped to its lowest level in at least two decades during the third quarter.

• Inventories in SHFE-monitored warehouses down more than 75% in the last six months.

• Investors also continued to factor in a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in December amid inflationary pressures.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 0.91% at Rs. 415, supported by a weaker US dollar, with the dollar index declining to 101.3, its lowest level in five weeks, amid changing political expectations following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. Additional support came from concerns over tightening mine supply, declining treatment charges and reduced refined metal production. China's zinc ore imports have declined since April, squeezing concentrate availability and pushing treatment charges to record lows, while northern mines are expected to curtail output in November as smelters complete winter stockpiling. The LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract widened sharply to $106 per ton from $45 last week, highlighting immediate supply tightness. China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories fell 1.6%. The global refined zinc market also shifted to a deficit of 3,900 metric tons in August from a surplus of 27,500 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. However, expectations of recovering Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could limit further gains. China's manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory at 52.0 in October, marking the eleventh consecutive month above the 50-point threshold. Looking ahead, the ILZSG expects the global refined zinc market to move from a deficit of 88,000 tons in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tons in 2027, as refined production rises 2% to 14.21 million tons and mine production increases 3% to 12.78 million tons. Global zinc demand is forecast to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tons in 2027, although slower Chinese consumption growth amid weakness in the property sector remains a concern. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 5.74% to 1,577 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 3.75, indicating that the recovery was primarily driven by the covering of existing short positions. Zinc is getting support at Rs. 410, below which prices could test Rs. 404.50, while resistance is placed at Rs. 419. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 422.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 404.50-422.50.

• Zinc gained as dollar index fell to 101.3, the biggest decline in about a month and its lowest level in five weeks.

• China's zinc ore imports have declined since April, squeezing raw material supply and sending treatment charges sharply lower.

• However, upside was capped as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 0.52% at Rs. 328.25, supported by a weaker US dollar following an unexpected Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Additional support came from declining global inventories, which fell to around 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, reflecting resilient demand. Aluminium inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also declined 10.3% from the previous week. However, gains remained capped by expectations of improving global supply and a potential market surplus in 2027. Recovering Middle East production, resilient Chinese output and expanding Indonesian capacity are expected to ease supply constraints, with estimated Middle East production losses revised lower to less than 2 million tons from earlier estimates of 3–3.5 million tons. Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China's primary aluminium production reached a record quarterly high of 11.84 million tons during July-September, increasing 2.2% year-on-year. September production rose 3.1% to 3.91 million tons, while output during the first nine months increased 3.8% to 35.03 million tons. The International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production of 6.014 million tons in September, down from 6.10 million tons a year earlier, indicating continued year-on-year weakness in global production. However, strong Chinese smelting margins and high operating rates continue to support production growth, potentially increasing future supply pressure. Meanwhile, concerns over slower restarts of previously idled Middle East smelters due to elevated alumina import costs could limit the pace of global supply recovery. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 6.09% to 4,022 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 1.70, indicating that the recovery was primarily driven by the covering of existing short positions. Aluminium is getting support at Rs. 325, below which prices could test Rs. 322, while resistance is placed at Rs. 330.50. A sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 333.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 322.00-333.00.

• Aluminium gained as an unexpected sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections weighed on the dollar.

• Global inventories fell to 44 days of consumption, the lowest level in recent years, as demand remained strong - CBA

• The global aluminum deficit narrowed to 338,000 metric tons in the third quarter of 2026, but supply remained tight - CBA

Turmeric

Turmeric settled marginally higher by 0.14% at Rs. 26,316, with gains supported by tight pipeline supplies, lower acreage estimates for the upcoming season and concerns over adverse weather conditions in major producing regions. However, prices faced profit booking after the recent rally, while overseas inquiries from Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia temporarily slowed as buyers awaited price stability. Physical trading activity across Nizamabad, Sangli and Erode also turned cautious, with lower offtake at prevailing price levels. Total arrivals declined to around 6,000 bags, approximately 2,000 bags lower than the previous session, providing underlying support. Weather conditions remain a key factor, as persistently dry conditions in Maharashtra could affect crop development and yields, while forecast cyclonic rainfall in South India raises concerns over potential crop damage. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased some crop failure concerns. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks of around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, highlighting tighter availability. Meanwhile, stronger demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from Europe is supporting compliant stocks, although stricter European Union maximum residue limit regulations are putting pressure on non-compliant commercial grades. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tons in August 2026 from 17,136 tons a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tons from 63,020 tons in the corresponding period last year. Exports to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil increased 50%, 57% and 37%, respectively, in August, while shipments to Bangladesh declined 85%. In Nizamabad, spot prices ended at Rs. 24,954.10, down 0.11%. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased 0.39% to 17,895 contracts while prices gained Rs. 36, indicating the formation of fresh bullish positions. Turmeric is getting support at Rs. 26,070, below which prices could test Rs. 25,830, while resistance is placed at Rs. 26,520. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 26,730.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 25830-26730.

• Turmeric prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

• Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

• Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24954.1 Rupees dropped by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled sharply higher by 3.34% at Rs. 27,205, supported by rising export demand, tightening domestic and global supplies and concerns over adverse weather conditions in key producing regions. The El Niño phenomenon and limited water availability have increased uncertainty over sowing and production prospects, particularly in Rajasthan and Gujarat. The Gujarat government declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts, highlighting concerns over agricultural water availability. Additionally, limited Syrian supplies have increased demand for Indian cumin, although China's growing domestic cultivation has reduced its dependence on Indian exports. Industry estimates indicate that India's cumin production could decline to 90-92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Global production concerns have also emerged, with China's output estimated at 70,000-80,000 tons due to adverse weather, while Syria and Turkey are expected to produce 9,000-10,000 tons and 10,000-11,000 tons, respectively. However, profit booking, aggressive farmer selling and expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan could limit further gains. Domestic spot trading at Unjha remained subdued as processors restricted purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated prices. On the export front, India's jeera shipments declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tons in August 2026 from 14,532 tons a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tons from 87,558 tons, while annual exports during September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tons. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs. 26,480.70, gaining 0.41%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 10.2% to 6,210 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 880, indicating that the rally was primarily driven by the covering of existing short positions. Jeera is getting support at Rs. 26,580, below which prices could test Rs. 25,960, while resistance is placed at Rs. 27,560. A sustained move above this level could extend the upside towards Rs. 27,910.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25960-27910.

• Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

• Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

• With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26480.7 Rupees gained by 0.41 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views