Gold Report As On 04th November 2026 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
From record high to a ~30% correction in nine months
KEY INSIGHT
The correction is deep, but the buyers who matter most — central banks — are still buying
Why did a 'safe haven' fall during a war?
KEY INSIGHT
Gold did not fall because of the war — it fell because of what the war did to rates.
Gold's 2026 path: record peak, two sharp monthly falls, a first rebound
KEY INSIGHT
Two back-to-back monthly falls took gold back to its pre-rally support — the bounce is a first test.
Crude oil is the switch: lower oil can mean lower rates and firmer gold
KEY INSIGHT
A controlled fall in crude is the single most important bullish trigger for gold over the next two months.
December's Fed decision could set the strength of any recovery
KEY INSIGHT
For gold, the Fed's guidance in December matters as much as the rate decision itself
Central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3 — the strongest quarter since late 2024
KEY INSIGHT
Official buying is a structural floor, not a short-term price driver — it can coexist with fund selling.
ETFs added 211 tonnes in Q3 — holdings at a record 4,256 tonnes
KEY INSIGHT
Q3 inflows were strong — but only post-October flows will show whether institutions are buying the dip
High prices hurt jewellery and coin buying — lower prices may slowly help
KEY INSIGHT
Lower prices improve affordability — but buyers return only once volatility settles.
Q3 2026 balance: record mine output, but demand absorbed all of it
KEY INSIGHT
Central banks were the single largest demand segment in Q3 — ahead of jewellery.
Past shock-driven sell-offs were followed by big rallies once policy turned
KEY INSIGHT
History supports a rebound only if the policy trigger repeats — confirmation must come from today's data.
A weak rupee and 15% duty cushioned Indian gold from the global fall
KEY INSIGHT
For Indian investors, the rupee is half the gold story — watch USD/INR as closely as $ gold.
Indian demand fell 29% — ETFs are the one channel still growing
KEY INSIGHT
Indian buyers are shifting from physical to financial gold — while the RBI has paused buying
Dubai property stocks bounced 6% — a sign regional risk is being re-priced
KEY INSIGHT
Improving Gulf risk appetite plus falling crude would be a strong confirming signal for gold.
Gold is regaining strength versus silver — ratio near key 80– 83 resistance
KEY INSIGHT
A break above 80–83 would confirm gold outperforming silver; failure there means silver can catch up.
Rupee weakness persists — USD/INR holds above its rising average
KEY INSIGHT
Above 96.96 the rupee weakens further and supports MCX gold; below 93.61 that cushion fades.
Gold is attempting a base above $3,800 — $4,155 and $4,240 are the tests
KEY INSIGHT
3M view: $3,800–4,240 range bias up · 6M view: $4,460–4,700 if $4,240 is cleared (analytical estimate).
MCX gold is holding its 38.2% retracement near ?1,37,500
KEY INSIGHT
3M view: Rs1,35,000–1,48,600 range · 6M view: Rs 1,54,000+ if global gold clears $4,240 and rupee stays weak
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