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Gold

Gold prices declined 1.01% to settle at Rs143,376 as the U.S. dollar regained strength following the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, despite the central bank keeping interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered limited guidance on future policy, prompting markets to reduce expectations of a September rate hike. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a September increase eased to 67% from nearly 80% before the meeting. Meanwhile, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation slipped 0.1% month-on-month in June, marking the weakest reading since April 2020, although renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could temporarily revive inflationary pressures through higher energy prices. Fundamentally, global gold demand remained stable at 1,268.9 metric tonnes during the second quarter of 2026, supported by robust central bank purchases of 289 tonnes, which more than offset ETF outflows of 45 tonnes. Poland and China led official sector buying, highlighting continued reserve diversification. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong declined over 5% in June to 50.68 tonnes, while physical demand in India remained subdued as consumers awaited clearer price direction. India's June-quarter gold demand fell 6% year-on-year to 131.4 tonnes, and net imports dropped 23% to 98.1 tonnes following the increase in import tariffs to 15%, which also encouraged higher unofficial inflows. However, improving physical premiums in China indicated relatively stronger buying interest compared to other Asian markets. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.34% to 9,348 contracts alongside the sharp price fall. Gold is currently supported at Rs142,775, with a break below this level likely to extend losses toward Rs142,175. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at Rs144,100, and a sustained move above this level could open the way for a test of Rs144,825.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 142175-144825.

* Gold dropped ‌as the U.S. dollar regained footing, but ended the month with gains as investors pared back rate hike bets.

* Fed left interest unchanged at its latest policy meeting, and Chairman Warsh gave little indication on the central bank's next policy move.

* Gold demand in India remained muted as buyers waited for clearer price direction, while a stronger yuan lifted purchases in China.

Silver

Silver prices declined 1.26% to settle at Rs217,198 as investors balanced persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, three FOMC members dissented in favor of an immediate rate hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the pause should not be interpreted as a shift toward easier policy. Markets now assign around a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, while expectations for a larger 50-basis-point increase have largely faded. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture, with second-quarter GDP growth slowing to an annualized 1.5%, below market expectations of 2.1%, while the PCE price index declined 0.1% in June, reflecting easing inflationary pressures. Weekly jobless claims rose to 197,000 but remained historically low, highlighting continued resilience in the labor market. Fundamentally, silver market dynamics remained mixed. Silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June, indicating higher available inventories. In India, silver imports dropped sharply by 87% year-on-year in May to their lowest level in more than three years after the government tightened import restrictions and raised import duties on precious metals to 15% from 6%. Import volumes plunged 94% to just 33 metric tonnes, reflecting the impact of stricter trade regulations aimed at reducing pressure on foreign exchange reserves following elevated energy prices. From a technical perspective, silver remained under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.78% to 12,990 contracts alongside the price decline, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs215,210, with a break below this level likely to extend losses toward Rs213,220. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs219,545, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further recovery toward Rs221,890.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 213220-221890.

* Silver prices dropped as Middle East worries and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate path persist. The

* U.S. inflation slowed in June, but the easing was likely temporary as renewed hostilities in the Middle East lifted oil prices.

* Traders are now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike in September, versus an over 80% chance a week before – CME

Crude oil

Crude oil prices gained 0.95% to settle at Rs8,113 as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over global supply security. Market sentiment strengthened after reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while several other vessels altered their routes, prompting traders to reassess shipping risks through one of the world's most critical oil transit corridors. Although discussions between Iran and Oman on managing the Strait continue, uncertainty over maritime security and fresh drone attacks near Russia's Novorossiysk export terminal further supported prices. In addition, reports that Saudi crude tankers destined for India sailed through the Red Sea without transmitting location signals highlighted elevated regional risks. Fundamentally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a sharp 7.2 million-barrel decline in crude inventories to 404.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations for a 1.3 million-barrel draw and marking the lowest stock level since 2018. Crude inventories at the Cushing delivery hub also declined by 771,000 barrels to 18.6 million barrels, the lowest level since 2014. Refinery utilization increased to 97.2%, reflecting strong refinery activity, although gasoline inventories edged up by 7,000 barrels and distillate stocks rose by 1.1 million barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to pause production increases for three months from October after completing its scheduled output restoration, despite previously approving an additional 188,000 barrels per day increase from August. Actual production growth remains constrained by ongoing regional disruptions and logistical challenges. From a technical perspective, crude oil witnessed short covering, with open interest declining by 6.37% to 8,657 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs7,826, with a break below this level likely to trigger further weakness toward Rs7,539. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs8,333, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs8,553.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7539-8553.

* Crude oil prices rose as reports that some tankers were forced to turn around in the Strait of Hormuz.

* Iran's Revolutionary Guards stopped two tankers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while four others changed course.

* Talks between Iran and Oman on managing the Strait of Hormuz continue, according to the Iranian Labour News Agency.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined 0.72% to settle at Rs262.7 as record U.S. production, lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) export flows, and comfortable storage levels continued to weigh on market sentiment. Gas output across the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, surpassing June's 110.0 bcfd and exceeding the previous monthly record of 110.6 bcfd set in December 2025. While domestic demand, including exports, is expected to gradually rise from 111.8 bcfd this week to 112.8 bcfd over the next two weeks, reduced LNG feedgas flows due to maintenance at major export facilities, including Freeport LNG, limited overall demand. Average LNG feedgas deliveries eased to 17.2 bcfd in July from 17.4 bcfd in June and the record 18.8 bcfd reached in April. Fundamentally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage injection of 28 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ended July 24, below market expectations of a 35 bcf build. Total working gas in storage increased to 3.084 trillion cubic feet, standing 1% below year-ago levels but still 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating that supply remains comfortable despite the smaller-than-expected inventory build. The EIA also maintained a constructive long-term outlook, forecasting record dry gas production of 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 115.3 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption and LNG exports are also projected to reach new highs over the next two years. From a technical perspective, natural gas remained under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.38% to 53,617 contracts while prices declined, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs259.3, with a break below this level likely to extend losses toward Rs255.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs267.5, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs272.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 255.8-272.2.

* Natural gas dropped as output to reach a record high, lower flows to LNG export plants and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Average gas output rose to 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June.

* Near-record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher by 0.22% to settle at Rs1,341.45, supported by improved risk appetite across global equity markets and persistent concerns over tightening physical copper availability outside the United States. Available inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses declined by nearly 50% during July to 101,650 tonnes, the lowest level since mid-January, as significant volumes were earmarked for delivery. Reflecting the tighter near-term supply, the LME cash copper contract traded at a premium of around $40 per tonne over the three-month contract, the strongest backwardation in seven months. However, buying momentum in China showed signs of stabilising, with the Yangshan copper premium holding at $112 per tonne after recently reaching its highest level since November 2022. Fundamentally, copper supply remained well supported by stronger mine production. Glencore reported first-half copper output of 397,000 tonnes, up 15% year-on-year, driven by higher mining volumes and improved ore grades across its African operations and Peru's Antamina mine, while maintaining full-year production guidance of 810,000–870,000 tonnes. First Quantum Minerals also recorded a 5% increase in Zambian copper production to 184,929 tonnes during the first half, supported by higher output at both Kansanshi and Sentinel mines. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May, compared with a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, taking the cumulative surplus for the first five months of the year to 221,000 tonnes. On the demand side, China's refined copper imports rose to a nine-month high of 281,307 tonnes in June, reflecting resilient consumption amid lower domestic supply. From a technical perspective, copper witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 1.05% to 11,546 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs1,334.4, with further support at Rs1,327.2. Resistance is seen at Rs1,348.4, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs1,355.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1327.2-1355.2.

* Copper rose following increased risk appetite in equity markets and worries about a lack of visible stocks outside the U.S.

* Glencore boosts copper output by 15%, maintains full-year guidance amid strong H1 performance

* First quantum boosts Zambian copper output by 5% in h1 2026, on track for annual targets

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 0.79% to settle at Rs383.8, supported by expectations of tighter near-term supply following planned production cuts and maintenance at key mining and smelting operations in China. A mine in Southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes of contained zinc in August after revising its production schedule. Additionally, a major zinc smelter in Central China will undertake routine maintenance for approximately half a month, reducing refined zinc output by an estimated 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Improving manufacturing activity in China also supported market sentiment, reinforcing expectations of stable industrial demand despite broader concerns over global economic growth. Fundamentally, supply trends remained mixed across major producers. Glencore reported own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes during the first half of 2026, down 21% year-on-year, but maintained its full-year production guidance of 700,000–740,000 tonnes. Boliden's zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG reported a marginal 1% year-on-year decline to 55,500 tonnes during the second quarter. In contrast, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% year-on-year to 108,200 tonnes during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Meanwhile, China's refined zinc output rose 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, highlighting robust domestic smelter operations. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the cumulative surplus for the first five months of the year remained elevated at 163,000 tonnes. From a technical perspective, zinc witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 1.57% to 2,578 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is placed at Rs381.8, followed by Rs379.8. Resistance is seen at Rs385.0, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs386.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 379.8-386.2.

* Zinc gains as a mine in Southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by approximately 1,000 tonnes.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% from last Friday.

* China's factory activity unexpectedly slipped into contraction in July, pressured by shrinking new orders.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.29% to settle at Rs341.35, supported by ongoing supply concerns and historically low inventories in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. LME aluminium stocks declined further to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, reinforcing concerns over near-term metal availability. Additional support came after Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. However, gains remained limited as improving production in the Middle East and higher Chinese exports continued to ease broader supply concerns. Fundamentally, global aluminium supply trends remained mixed. The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, mainly due to a sharp one-third decline in Gulf production. At the same time, daily aluminium production outside China rebounded 1.6% month-on-month in July, driven by production resumptions in the Middle East and Iceland, along with capacity expansions and commissioning activities in Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at Japan's three major ports declined 7.8% month-on-month to 220,300 tonnes, indicating healthy regional demand. China continued to expand exports, with unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments reaching a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, while first-half exports rose 16.3% year-on-year. In contrast, China's aluminium imports declined 17.4% year-on-year due to unfavourable import economics, although domestic primary aluminium production increased 4.7% to 3.98 million tonnes.From a technical perspective, aluminium witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 3.12% to 3,881 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs339.3, followed by Rs337.3. Resistance is placed at Rs342.5, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs343.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 337.3-343.7.

* Aluminium gains amid supply concerns lower LME stocks.

* Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes.

* Global primary aluminium output in June fell 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million metric tons

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged 3.43% to settle at Rs21,572, supported by tight spot supplies, declining carry-forward stocks, and persistent concerns over crop development amid weather uncertainties. Market sentiment strengthened as deficient rainfall in several producing regions raised fears of lower yields during the ongoing sowing season, while the possibility of El Niño affecting crop growth further boosted buying interest. Spot prices in key markets remained firm due to the prevailing hand-to-mouth supply situation, with reduced inventories accumulated over the past few years continuing to tighten overall availability. Although recent rainfall has improved soil moisture in major turmeric-growing regions, traders remain cautious as consistent rainfall will be crucial for healthy crop development in the coming weeks. Fundamentally, turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, remaining well above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, encouraged by the current high price levels. Good rainfall over the past week is expected to accelerate sowing activity, potentially improving the production outlook and limiting further price gains. However, overall supplies remain structurally tight as carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than more than 20 lakh bags last season. Export demand also remained supportive despite a marginal 1% year-on-year decline in May shipments to 18,960 tonnes. Strong growth in exports to China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy helped keep cumulative April–May exports broadly stable, reflecting resilient overseas demand, particularly for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric. From a technical perspective, turmeric witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 0.38% to 29,120 contracts while prices rallied sharply. Immediate support is placed at Rs21,034, with further support at Rs20,494. Resistance is seen at Rs21,902, and a sustained move above this level could extend the rally toward Rs22,230.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20494-22230.

* Turmeric prices gained amid fears of El Nino impact the crop that is currently being sown.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20406.85 Rupees gained by 1.89 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices eased 0.33% to settle at Rs20,925 as increased farmer selling and improving market arrivals weighed on sentiment. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities, while favourable weather across North-West India accelerated harvesting, drying, and market arrivals. The steady rise in NCDEX warehouse stocks also reduced the urgency for spot procurement, with domestic processors and traders largely maintaining hand-to-mouth buying strategies instead of aggressive inventory accumulation. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt export logistics, while expected bulk buying from China remained inconsistent and price-sensitive, limiting immediate export demand. Fundamentally, downside remained limited due to tightening availability of premium-quality export-grade bold seeds. Daily arrivals in key trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, while blight disease in parts of Gujarat has affected both crop quality and harvestable output. Industry estimates suggest India's jeera production for the current season could decline to around 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting lower sowing acreage. Gujarat is expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may contribute 48–50 lakh bags. Production estimates have also been revised lower in China due to adverse weather, although improved crop prospects in Turkey and Syria have placed some pressure on Indian export premiums. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May, while cumulative April–May exports fell 22%. However, exports to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker shipments to traditional markets. From a technical perspective, jeera witnessed long liquidation as open interest declined by 7.43% to 7,704 contracts while prices moved lower. Immediate support is placed at Rs20,820, followed by Rs20,720. Resistance is seen at Rs21,050, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs21,180.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20720-21180.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India's jeera exports declined sharply by 26% YoY to 17,177 tonnes in May-2026, compared with 23,206 tonnes in May-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20832.15 Rupees dropped by -0.35 percent.

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