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The Week That Was

• Gold prices settled on a flat note in the last session around the $4,040 level as mixed market cues kept prices range-bound. A hawkish Fed stance and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept prices volatile throughout the week. On Friday, gold declined by more than 1.5% amid profit-taking as investors assessed the latest developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on the Fed's policy outlook. This week, market focus will remain on key economic data, particularly the Payrolls report, which could shape expectations for the Fed's next interest rate decision.

• Copper futures extended their winning streak for a third consecutive week, rallying nearly 3% to settle near a multi-week high around the $6.5 level. The gains followed the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, easing concerns over the demand outlook for industrial metals. Meanwhile, copper continued to draw support from its strong long-term demand prospects, driven by the global transition to clean energy and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence data centres.

• Crude oil prices declined by more than 6% last week after the U.S. decided to halt strikes on Iran, easing supply concerns in the Middle East. However, on Friday, prices rebounded from the lows of $81 to around the $84 level amid renewed buying interest. Fresh developments on the ceasefire and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to keep crude oil prices volatile in the coming week.

• Comex silver ended lower by more than 1%, settling around the $58 level after failing to sustain gains near the $60 mark, as investors assessed the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 65% probability of a September rate hike, with another increase expected by Jun’27. While Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation lower without signalling an imminent rate hike, the three policymakers who dissented at this week's meeting reiterated on Friday that further policy tightening remains necessary

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold settled on a flat note last week around the Rs 1,43,300 level. On the weekly chart, prices have repeatedly taken support near the Rs 1,40,000 level, indicating a strong demand zone around this area. Additionally, the formation of inverted hammer candlestick patterns suggests a potential bullish reversal from current levels. We expect prices to move higher as long as the Rs 1,40,000 level remains intact on the downside.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Gold around Rs 1,42,000 with a stop-loss below Rs 1,40,000 and targets of Rs 1,45,000 and Rs 1,46,500.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,43,300

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver settled slightly lower by more than 1% last week around the Rs 2,17,400 level. Prices tested the previous breakout zone near Rs 2,14,500 multiple times and witnessed a strong rebound, indicating a solid demand zone around the mentioned level. We expect short covering to emerge this week as long as the Rs 2,14,500 support zone remains intact on the downside.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Silver around Rs 2,17,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 2,14,500 and targets of Rs 2,20,000 and Rs 2,22,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,17,400

MCX Crude Oil

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude Oil Futures experienced a volatile week, dropping 6.04% to close at Rs 8,096, though the intermediate trend remains stable as prices successfully defended the critical 9- week (7,887) and 20-week (7,857) EMAs. Momentum indicators reflect a neutral to sideways bias, with the RSI flat at 52.49. Moving forward, the Rs 7,850–7,900 EMA support cluster acts as the immediate pivot zone; a breakdown here risks a decline toward the Rs 7,464 low, while bulls must overcome the Rs 8,266 high to resume the upward trajectory.

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Crude Oil around Rs 8,200, with a stop-loss above Rs 8,600 and targets of Rs 7,700 and Rs 7,400.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 8,096

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper Futures demonstrated renewed strength this week, closing at Rs 1,341. The broader uptrend remains firmly intact as prices hold above the critical dynamic supports of the 9-week and 20-week EMAs at Rs 1,311 and Rs 1,282, respectively. Momentum is building favourably, with the RSI strengthening to the 64 level. Moving forward, a decisive breakout above the immediate resistance at Rs 1,350 is needed to trigger further upside momentum. Conversely, any near-term pullbacks are expected to find robust buying support near the Rs 1,311 level.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 1,350 with a stoploss below Rs 1,330 and targets of Rs 1,380 and Rs 1,395.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,341

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