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Nifty : 24384

Technical Outlook

Week that was .. Defying the global volatility equity benchmark staged a strong recovery propelled by easing crude oil, strengthening rupee and settled the week on a positive note at 24383, up 2.6%. Broader market performed in tandem with the benchmark, gaining 2% for the week. Beaten down IT index staged a strong recovery accompanied by traction in Auto and Pharma index. Meanwhile, Energy index extended breather over second week in a row

Technical Outlook :

• Nifty started the week on a positive note and gradually inched upward as the week progressed. Consequently, the weekly price action has formed bullish candle, indicating positive bias

• Index is likely to open gap-up on back of positive geopolitical developments amid US and Iran are set to resume diplomatic talks that has led fall in brent crude prices. Looking at the structural improvement, the breakout from past three months consolidation 24600-23100 looks imminent. Hence, breakout above 24600 would unlock the next leg of up move towards 25500 in coming months led by Banking, Auto, Metal, Pharma, Defence. Thereby, any decline from current level should be utilize as buying opportunity with strong Q1 earning as strong support is placed around 23800 being 80% retracement of current up move

Our constructive stance is based on following observations :

I. Nifty reclaimed its 200 days EMA (24370) after 5 months. Going ahead, sustainability above the same would be the first sign of conclusion of past three months consolidation. II. After 7 months, Nifty closed above its previous months high, highlights structural improvement in larger degree time-frame. III. After ~11% surge in April, Nifty’s 1500 points consolidation phase absorbed major geopolitical headwinds and formed higher base around the 3-months upward sloping trendline (joining the lows of April and June 2026). Thereby established durable higher base. IV. The optimism around Q1 earnings is shifting from large caps to midcaps. Following 5 weeks breather in the vicinity of All time high, the Midcap Index has regained momentum. V. Decline in Brent crude oil (-13%) along with breakdown in US Dollar index provides fuel for the emerging markets VI. Historically, seasonality favours August month, delivering positive returns on six out of ten occasions with an average gain of 3% VII. July FII’s net selling dropped to ~6000 cr. which is drastically low compared to past six months average of 57000 cr. As global volatility around AI trade mounts, we believe, focus would start shifting back to growth oriented Indian market.

Key Monitorable :

a) RBI Monetary Policy

b) Falling Crude Oil

c) Sustenance of US Dollar index below $100 would provide cushion to Indian equities

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – Formation of higher high-low structure in daily time frame, indicating positive bias.

• Levels – Buy around Fridays close

Nifty Bank : 57265

Technical Outlook

Week that was : Bank Nifty ended the volatile week on positive note up 0.9% at 57265 on back of mixed global cues.

Te chnical Outlook :

• Index opened on positive note and thereafter consolidate in a range 56700-57300 throughout the week and closed on positive note. Consequently, the weekly price action resulted into high wave candle with shadows on either side indicating elevated volatility.

• Going ahead we expect, index to hold the key support zone of 56000-55500 and gradually head towards upper band of consolidation placed at 58500 in coming month. The key support zone of 56000-55500 is a placement of the 38.2% retracement of entire rally (49954-58706) and gap-area is placed around 55,500 levels.

• Another observation is that over last 4 weeks Index has retraced by 38.2% of earlier 3 weeks rally, indicating slower pace of retracement which would help to set stage for next leg of rally.

• The PSU Bank Index has formed Inside bar and forming higher base above 52-week EMA, indicating buying demand from key moving average. Going ahead follow through strength above 100 days EMA (8450) would open the door for pullback towards 8700 levels

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Supportive efforts emerged from the lower band of 50-day EMA, indicating probability of base formation.

• Levels – Buy around Fridays close

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