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Gold

Gold settled sharply higher by 2.21% at 155775, supported by a retreat in the US dollar and Treasury yields after dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials reduced expectations of an immediate rate hike. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he could support keeping rates unchanged at the September meeting if August inflation data confirms continued improvement, while New York Fed President John Williams also pointed to easing inflation pressures as tariff effects fade. A weaker-than-expected ADP employment report further highlighted softness in the US labour market. Markets now price around a 50% probability of a September rate hike, down from about 62% before Waller's comments, with Friday's payrolls and next week's inflation data likely to guide expectations. Meanwhile, Indian gold discounts widened sharply to as much as $135 per ounce, the deepest discount in three months, compared with $65 last week, amid weaker domestic demand and speculation that the government could reconsider the recent import duty increase from 6% to 15%. Chinese bullion traded at discounts of $2-$5, while Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan saw limited premiums or discounts. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion and equivalent to around 762,723 gold bars. Technically, gold is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 0.97% to 10,514 while prices gained Rs 3,373, indicating fresh buying support amid reduced bearish positioning. The market is holding above the immediate support zone of 153915, and sustained strength above this level could keep the bullish momentum intact. A break below 153915 may trigger further correction towards 152060, while on the upside, resistance is placed at 156960. A decisive move above 156960 could open the way towards 158150, keeping the near-term outlook positive while Fed expectations and upcoming US economic data remain key drivers.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152060-158150.

* Gold climbed as the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated from recent highs following dovish comments from Fed officials.

* Fed Waller said he sees continued progress on inflation and would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.

* A weaker-than-expected ADP employment report, pointed to a slowdown in the US labor market.

Silver

Silver settled 2.57% higher at 242349, supported by easing US Treasury yields and stabilization in oil prices, which reduced concerns over renewed inflation and aggressive monetary tightening. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he would support holding rates at current levels if inflation continues moving toward the 2% target, prompting markets to reduce expectations for a near-term rate hike. The probability of a Fed hike this month has fallen to around 50% from nearly 70% earlier in the week. US trade data showed the deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July from $71.1 billion in June, while exports declined 2.1% to $310.7 billion, led by lower crude oil and nonmonetary gold sales. Weekly unemployment claims increased marginally to 206,000, remaining close to historically low levels. Meanwhile, London silver vault holdings stood at 28,213 tonnes at end-July, up 0.5% month-on-month and valued at $52.7 billion, equivalent to around 940,423 silver bars. The silver market is expected to record a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025 despite a 2% decline in total demand. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3%, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%. Total supply is projected to decline 2%, maintaining underlying tightness. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 4.36% to 12,237 while prices gained Rs 6,083, indicating reduced bearish positioning and strengthening near-term momentum. Silver is holding above immediate support at 238775, and sustained trade above this level could maintain the positive bias. A break below 238775 may trigger a correction toward 235200. On the upside, resistance is placed at 244350, and a decisive breakout above this level could extend the rally toward 246350.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 235200-246350.

* Silver rose as U.S. Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs, helping ease inflation and interest-rate concerns.

* Fed Governor Waller that “if there is continued progress toward our 2% goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level”.

* The number of people claiming unemployment benefits inched up by 2,000 to 206,000 on the fourth week of August

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.49% higher at 8643 as renewed US strikes on Iran and fresh Israeli threats against Tehran increased concerns over potential disruptions to Middle East oil supplies. Six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of around 13, highlighting elevated shipping risks. Iraq significantly increased oil exports to around 2.34 million barrels per day in August from 1.35 million bpd in July, supported by heavy discounts and approvals for Iraqi tankers to transit Hormuz. Russia also expects to restore the remaining 10% of refining capacity affected by Ukrainian drone attacks. OPEC+ is likely to maintain its October output policy unchanged as it completes the unwinding of one layer of production cuts and shifts focus toward 2027 quotas. Meanwhile, US crude inventories declined by 4.45 million barrels in the final week of August, the first decline in five weeks and significantly larger than expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel draw. Cushing stocks rose 0.08 million barrels, while refinery crude runs increased by 0.103 million bpd. Gasoline inventories declined 1.173 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks increased 0.796 million barrels. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand growth outlook. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 14.15% to 17,091 while prices gained Rs 42, indicating strong participation behind the upward move. Prices are holding above immediate support at 8467, and sustained trade above this level could keep the bullish bias intact. A break below 8467 may trigger a correction toward 8290, while resistance is placed at 8806. A decisive move above 8806 could extend the upside toward 8968, with geopolitical developments and US inventory trends remaining key near-term drivers.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8290-8968.

* Crude oil rallied after new U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed Israeli threats against Tehran heightened concerns about supplies.

* Putin says Russia will soon restore damaged oil refining capacity

* Six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, down from 11 a day earlier and well below the 10-day average of around 13.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.43% lower at 277.8 as record US production, expectations of softer demand next week, comfortable storage levels and technical selling weighed on prices. US Lower 48 gas output averaged 112.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, rising from the August monthly high of 112.2 bcfd, while mild spring weather and strong production have kept inventories above the five-year average since March. Meteorologists expect mostly warmer-than-normal weather through September 18, supporting elevated power-sector gas consumption for air-conditioning, although LSEG forecasts total Lower 48 demand including exports to decline from 112.7 bcfd this week to 108.8 bcfd next week. Gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities averaged 18.0 bcfd in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, though still below the record 18.8 bcfd reached in April. US working gas inventories increased by 30 billion cubic feet in the week ended August 28 to 3,214 Bcf, remaining 50 Bcf below last year but 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,054 Bcf, highlighting comfortable supply conditions. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are projected to reach 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling as open interest increased 13.31% to 40,999 while prices declined Rs 1.2, indicating addition of short positions and continued bearish pressure. Prices are facing immediate support at 272.7, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward 267.5. On the upside, resistance is placed at 284.4, while a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward 290.9. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious as strong production and above-average inventories outweigh weather-related demand support.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267.5-290.9.

* Natural gas eased on record output, lowered demand forecasts for less demand next week

* Gas flows to nine big US LNG export plants rise to 18.0 bcfd in September

* Warmth through Sept 18 should keep gas-fired generators running hard for cooling demand

Copper

Copper settled 0.83% higher at 1382.3, supported by a weaker US dollar and fading expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, which improved sentiment across industrial metals. The copper forward curve remained in backwardation, signaling near-term supply tightness, although the cash-to-three-month premium narrowed sharply to $93 per tonne from above $500 on August 17 as available stocks increased. US factory activity slowed in August amid elevated input prices, raising concerns over industrial demand. Supply concerns remained supportive, with SHFE-monitored copper stocks falling more than 19% last week and on-warrant inventories standing at 31,462 tonnes. Chilean copper production declined 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes from 445,322 tonnes, affected by severe storms, unfavorable weather conditions and maintenance at major mining sites. Meanwhile, the global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-tonne deficit in June compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May. For the first six months of the year, however, the market remained in a 131,000-tonne surplus. World refined copper output stood at 2.37 million tonnes in June against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. Chinese unwrought copper and copper product imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports declined 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Copper ore and concentrate imports also declined 1.8% during the first seven months to 16.99 million tonnes. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 1.46% to 10,672 while prices gained Rs 11.35, indicating reduced bearish positioning and improving momentum. Prices are holding above immediate support at 1373.2, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward 1364.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1387.7, while a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery toward 1393.1. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive while supply tightness and dollar movements remain key drivers.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1364.1-1393.1.

* Copper climbed boosted by a weaker dollar and fading expectations of a September increase to U.S. interest rates.

* The copper curve remained in backwardation, indicating near-term tightness.

* Data showed total copper stocks in SHFE-monitored warehouses were down more than 19% last week.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.27% higher at 414.85, supported by growing concerns over tightening supply, although gains were limited as renewed Middle East hostilities pushed oil prices higher and revived inflationary pressures. LME zinc cancelled warrants reached 30,875 tonnes, the highest level in more than a year, while 9,975 tonnes of deliveries into LME warehouses eased immediate supply tightness. The three-month zinc backwardation narrowed to $85 from more than $200 in late August, with available on-warrant inventories standing at 80,225 tonnes. Global mine supply remains under pressure, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting weaker production. Glencore's own-sourced zinc output fell 21% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 to 365,600 tonnes, while Boliden's zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, equivalent to 48% of its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. Nexa reported Q2 zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes, up 8% year-on-year due mainly to higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance. Higher zinc prices, however, have started to weaken demand and discourage buyers in China. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market still recorded a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes a year earlier. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 3.97% to 2,698 while prices gained Rs 1.1, indicating fresh long participation. Prices are holding above immediate support at 412.1, and a break below this level could lead to a decline toward 409.2. On the upside, resistance is placed at 417.4, while a decisive move above this level could extend the upside toward 419.8. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive, supported by tightening supply and a June deficit, while elevated prices and inflation concerns may restrict further gains.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 409.2-419.8.

* Zinc prices gained supported by concerns about supply tightness.

* However upside was capped as renewed hostilities in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns.

* Global supply is tightening, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.79% higher at 350.35, supported by continued supply tightness, physical destocking, expectations of improving seasonal demand in China and a modest improvement in economic risk sentiment. LME aluminium stocks remained close to a 36-year low, while inventories at three major Japanese ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories also declined 3% from the previous week, reinforcing the tightening physical market. However, upside was capped by rising oil prices, which increased inflation risks and strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes, while China's manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.8 in August despite improving from 49.2 in July. China also pledged fiscal measures to support economic growth amid slowing second-quarter GDP growth of 4.3%. Supply developments remained mixed, with global primary aluminium output falling 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July, mainly due to a sharp 44% decline in Gulf production to 293,000 tonnes. Chinese production rose 2.7% year-on-year to 3.866 million tonnes, partly offsetting the Middle East disruption. China's aluminium exports reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year-on-year, while January-July exports rose 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. EGA and Alba are accelerating production restarts, while Al Taweelah was operating at 18% capacity and is expected to recover toward previous levels in early 2027. Alcoa also reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying as open interest increased 1.74% to 4,376 while prices gained Rs 2.75, indicating fresh long participation. Prices are holding above support at 347.6, and a break below this level could lead to 344.7. On the upside, resistance is placed at 352.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend the rally toward 353.9. Overall, the near-term bias remains positive, supported by constrained supply and falling inventories.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 344.7-353.9.

* Aluminium rose buoyed by continued supply tightness and a slight improvement in economic risk sentiment.

* LME stocks of the light metal, remain close to a 36-year low.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 201,000 metric tons at the end of July, down 8.8% from the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.57% higher at 20244, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key growing regions and concerns that deficient rainfall and a possible El Nino could affect the upcoming crop. Carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over the past few years, with industry estimates placing current stocks at around 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the overall availability buffer. Continued dry conditions during the early crop development phase could adversely affect yields and provide further support to prices. However, the upside remained limited as monsoon activity improved across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, while reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh improved water availability for the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving and easing concerns over severe production losses. Farmers increased selling during the peak harvest window, while tighter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots and pressured commercial-grade turmeric prices. At the same time, stronger demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European markets supported compliant stocks. Export demand remained encouraging, with India's turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes a year earlier. April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes, with strong growth in China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay. Nizamabad spot turmeric ended at 20047.1, gaining 0.25%. Technically, turmeric is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 0.36% to 35,880 while prices gained Rs 114, indicating reduced bearish positioning. Prices are holding above immediate support at 19762, and a break below this level could extend the decline toward 19282. On the upside, resistance is placed at 20536, while a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 20830.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19282-20830.

* Turmeric gained amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20047.1 Rupees gained by 0.25 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.61% higher at 21440, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, even as overall physical crop supplies remain relatively stable. Daily arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, while blight disease in parts of Gujarat has reduced both crop quality and harvestable quantities. European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing some support to demand. However, Middle East geopolitical instability continues to disrupt logistics and keeps traditional buyers focused on hand-to-mouth purchasing rather than aggressive bulk procurement. Upside remained capped as farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate cash flow ahead of the next season, while favorable weather allowed faster harvesting and drying. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced immediate spot procurement urgency, and large industrial spice grinders remain cautious, waiting for lower prices. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. Domestic cumin production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Global supply is also mixed, with China's production estimates reduced to 70-80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9-10 thousand, 10-11 thousand and 10-12 thousand tonnes respectively. India's jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Although exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina recorded strong growth, they were insufficient to offset the broader decline. Unjha spot jeera ended at 21085.85, down 0.33%. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering as open interest declined sharply by 15.62% to 5,865 while prices gained Rs 130, indicating substantial reduction in bearish positions. Prices are holding above support at 21310, and a break below this level could lead to 21170. On the upside, resistance is placed at 21570, while a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 21690.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21170-21690.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21085.85 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.

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